***BYU/San Fran OVER***

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  • Romanov
    SBR MVP
    • 10-08-10
    • 4137

    #1
    ***BYU/San Fran OVER***
    Thoughts?

    I can still get 158.5 and pinny has it juiced at 160 (-113). Quite the edge, but 158.5 is a huge number
  • Romanov
    SBR MVP
    • 10-08-10
    • 4137

    #2
    burp
    Comment
    • BiffTFinancial
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-29-09
      • 22670

      #3
      i like the over but i'm cold.
      Comment
      • JR007
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-21-10
        • 5279

        #4
        gotta watch the line being pushed beyond it's fair value, you are at that point now, ...under

        when the books are agressively moving the line, fade the move IMO,
        Comment
        • Romanov
          SBR MVP
          • 10-08-10
          • 4137

          #5
          Originally posted by JR007
          gotta watch the line being pushed beyond it's fair value, you are at that point now, ...under when the books are agressively moving the line, fade the move IMO
          You say that without anything to substantiate your claim.

          35% on the Over but its climbing
          Comment
          • JR007
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-21-10
            • 5279

            #6
            In my opinion anything more than a two point move,, is a fade, but i would watch any move to the under, late, i never make plays till the last possible second on totals, I always see unders as value plays
            Comment
            • Romanov
              SBR MVP
              • 10-08-10
              • 4137

              #7
              Originally posted by JR007
              In my opinion anything more than a two point move,, is a fade, but i would watch any move to the under, late, i never make plays till the last possible second on totals, I always see unders as value plays
              Your 2 point rule is extremely arbitrary. Why not 3? Why not 1.5? And by definition the closer is as close to a coin flip as there could be MOST times
              Comment
              • JR007
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-21-10
                • 5279

                #8
                I use that as a yardstick for public moves, again IMO......for an over..at this price you need balanced scoring, one of these teams have a bad shooting night the over is toast, in any total in any sport, i take the view to bet against events occuring, rather than, on them occuring......but again the late move, might alter that...bookmaker opened at 156.5 now -160.5, four point move, I have learned the hard way over the years tailing these kinds of moves, ......
                Comment
                • Romanov
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-08-10
                  • 4137

                  #9
                  Winner!
                  Comment
                  • HoulihansTX
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 02-12-09
                    • 30566

                    #10
                    I was rooting for San Fran.
                    Comment
                    • Romanov
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-08-10
                      • 4137

                      #11
                      Originally posted by JR007
                      I use that as a yardstick for public moves, again IMO......for an over..at this price you need balanced scoring, one of these teams have a bad shooting night the over is toast, in any total in any sport, i take the view to bet against events occuring, rather than, on them occuring......but again the late move, might alter that...bookmaker opened at 156.5 now -160.5, four point move, I have learned the hard way over the years tailing these kinds of moves, ......
                      there is just as much a chance as the late move going your way as the other way. don't be afraid
                      Comment
                      • BiffTFinancial
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-29-09
                        • 22670

                        #12
                        great hit, Romanov. i was afraid and am now kicking myself for it.

                        used to have a dog named Herzog. great book.
                        Comment
                        • Romanov
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-08-10
                          • 4137

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                          great hit, Romanov. i was afraid and am now kicking myself for it. used to have a dog named Herzog. great book.
                          ol' bellow is a trip
                          Comment
                          • BiffTFinancial
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-29-09
                            • 22670

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Romanov
                            ol' bellow is a trip
                            sure is. i have to find time to go back and re-read Herzog. problem is, whenever i have time to read (not often), i just re-read a few chapters of Confederacy of Dunces.
                            Comment
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