The "Out Play Factor"

[doubledime]

I have subscribed to StatFox for years, but for the last 2 months I have been able to isolate a winning strategy using their "Out Play Factor". They have some computer program that projects a score and compares it against the line and the bigger the difference the greater percentage it has of winning, or at least that's what is supposed to happen. For the last 2 months I have tracked the largest Out Play difference each day and it has hit just under 57%.

I will be the first to say that 2 months does not not make a winning strategy, but I want to post them just to have a public record. There will be 1 play per day unless the largest Out Play has under a 3 point difference, then NO PLAY. Also I will using a simple Labby line with $10 units. I find $10 units makes it easy to calculate for anyone to play $1.00 to $100 or more.

I am posting these to track only since I have no input in the decision of the game.

Good luck to all

Thursday Out Play is #713 Denver +1.5 $20

10-10-10-10

[doubledime]

Good morning,

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 1-0 +$20

Friday's Out Play: Wisc. Milw. +6 for $20

X-10-10-X

Good luck to all

[wade1]

Very Interesting

[doubledime]

Thank you wade.

[doubledime]

Good morning,

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 2-0 +$40

Saturday's Out Play: #579 California +3.5 for $20

X-X-X-X

New line 10-10-10-10

Good luck to all

[Catchn_Picks]

Congrats on an impressive finding DD.

I looked at the site. I assume that the "Game Estimator" is what you are looking at and it is only available for subscribers?

Thanks again.

[doubledime]

Congrats on an impressive finding DD.

I looked at the site. I assume that the "Game Estimator" is what you are looking at and it is only available for subscribers?

Thanks again.

No it's not the Game Estimator. It is in another section called the Out Play Factor. I have subscribed to them for years and they really have a lot of info, but you have to chart the results yourself since they do not.

[Catchn_Picks]

No it's not the Game Estimator. It is in another section called the Out Play Factor. I have subscribed to them for years and they really have a lot of info, but you have to chart the results yourself since they do not.

Thank you for the info DD.

Is the out play factor only for subscribers?

[doubledime]

Thank you for the info DD.

Is the out play factor only for subscribers?

Yes, I believe so.

[Catchn_Picks]

Yes, I believe so.

Thanks DD...BOL

[doubledime]

Good morning,

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 3-0 +$60

Sunday's Out Play: #834 Drake +1 for $20

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X

New line X-10-10-X

Good luck to all

[doubledime]

Good morning,

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 4-0 +$80

Monday's Out Play: #519 MD Eastern Shore +14 for $20 (whoever the F**k they are.)

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X
Line 2 complete X-X-X-X

New line 10-10-10-10

Good luck to all

[frankzig]

[doubledime]

Back to you

[jjesco425]

if look at the numbers this is a quality play ATS WISE

[doubledime]

if look at the numbers this is a quality play ATS WISE

I hope you are correct.

[Catchn_Picks]

Man DD, I gotta remember to check you out in the morning...from 14 to 11.5 tonight. Somebody else agrees with the system.

BOL as always.

[jjesco425]

i like it till 11.5 but its a funny conf.. they can lose by 25 then win away by 25 irratic results make it difficult to bet heavy

[ohdawerz]

Good morning,

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 4-0 +$80

Monday's Out Play: #519 MD Eastern Shore +14 for $20 (whoever the F**k they are.)

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X
Line 2 complete X-X-X-X

New line 10-10-10-10

Good luck to all

Great System...been tailing since 1-0. Thanks for the posts!

[blackeyeshamus]

[DerekMadden]

I hope this continues to be a profitable play!

[YouHave2outs]

ye tailed today, 1-0 on this. bet only 60% of a normal unit on a blind tail, but i'll be at it again tomorrow

[frankzig]

put it in my 5 team teaser after looking at it
keep up the good work

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Thanks everyone for the kind words. I have been in this business long enough to know that one has to keep in mind "variance". I know this system is 5-0 now, but we would all like to see a consistent 58% system. I am not being negative, and only mention this because I am a realist.

1-0 yesterday +$20

YTD: 5-0 +$100

Tuesday's Out Play: #734 Drexel -16 for $20

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X
Line 2 complete X-X-X-X

New line X-10-10-X

Good luck to all

[letsgo]

I think you mean Tuesday

[doubledime]

I think you mean Tuesday

Thanks LG I fixed it. That damn cut and paste!!

[doubledime]

Good morning,

FYI: With 1 second left last night's game was tied. It is what it is.

0-1 yesterday -$22

YTD: 5-1 +$78

Wednesday's Out Play: #528 Indiana -8.5 for $32 (5:30 Central Time)

I want to post these plays no matter what the other factors are, however I do see some factors favoring NW in this match up but I'm "going with the girl I brought to the dance" and sticking with Indiana.

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X
Line 2 complete X-X-X-X

New line X-10-10-X-22

Good luck to all

[DerekMadden]

hey DD what's the system say about these?

Georgia +3
Drake -2
Temple -2
Wichita St -11.5

[doubledime]

hey DD what's the system say about these?

Georgia +3
Drake -2
Temple -2
Wichita St -11.5

DM

So as to put it all in the proper prospective, Indiana Outplay factor is +6.2 difference.

Your teams are the following:

GA +1.6
Drake +1.6
Temple -1.9
Wichita St. +1.3

The more plus the better.

[jjesco425]

great idea but look into how teams are playing at time also....most comp systems compile data over a season so if teams are improving it doesnt give the total truth just a variable u can add to help your decision

[doubledime]

great idea but look into how teams are playing at time also....most comp systems compile data over a season so if teams are improving it doesnt give the total truth just a variable u can add to help your decision

I have had some discussions with the StatFox people over the years, and they have told me that the data for this area is updated each day so, if we can believe them, it is reflecting any stats that show a improving team. However, generally I would agree with you about this just being one tool of many to use for your handicapping. I am just posting these since they have done so well so far this year and thought I would share them.

[jjesco425]

im sure they update but its just like discussion i had yesterday the computer doesnt sipher how playing lately ex if guy misses 60 str8 shots then hit 40 str8 comp says hes got 60% chance of missing but are you gonna take that play knowing he just made 40 str8....

[frankzig]

tough play, keep'm comming

[MJT1212]

none today?

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Up later today due to some other constraints. Sorry about that.

0-1 yesterday -$35 (I am going to round up/down so as not to use cents)

YTD: 5-2 +$46

Thursday's Out Play: #720 W. Kentucky +2 for $45

Line 1 complete X-X-X-X
Line 2 complete X-X-X-X

New line X-10-10-X-22-35

Good luck to all