Cincinnati +4.5 vs. Syracuse

[No coincidences]

It could be argued that no one is as hot as the Bearcats right now. They won at Georgetown, won at Pitt, won at UConn and lost in overtime at West Virginia -- all in the past three weeks. They're 10-2 since the Xavier debacle, with both losses being by a single possession.

I was going to go big on Cincy here if Syracuse had beaten Notre Dame. Now I'm not so sure. The Orange are the superior team personnel-wise, but the Bearcats play better defense and could drag this game into the gutter. Problem is, they're just 1-6 ATS at home and facing an angry Syracuse bunch. Plus, I'm a little worried about them being road weary.

I'm assuming Fab Melo is still out, which hurts the Orange against a pretty solid rebounding team (even though the Bearcats are more guard-oriented). Cincy is also balanced, with five guys averaging in double figures scoring-wise (Kilpatrick, Dixon, Gates, Wright, Parker).

Thoughts?

[PAULYPOKER]

I like this play coin................

[No coincidences]

I like this play coin................

They need to get up early the way ND did. This is not a team that's going to mount big comebacks.

Syracuse is outstanding, but without Melo, they're vulnerable and their chemistry is a bit off with different rotations. I'm just not completely sold on Cincy at home; they've performed much better on the road recently.

We'll see.

[PAULYPOKER]

Let the line do its work,you'll know what to do........

[No coincidences]

Let the line do its work,you'll know what to do........

Yeah, we'll see where it goes. Although I wouldn't mind getting a +5 here.

[zacharyj53]

Liking the Bearcats myself.

[Balco10]

Large on Cuse -5

[zacharyj53]

Large on Cuse -5

Any reason behind it?

[alexn]

Isn't Kilpatrick listed as doubtful?

[HoulihansTX]

Its the side you want to be on b4 the game starts.

[isotopes]

Syracuse always had one part of their game that they could be exposed on, and how teams could beat them while they were all healthy and having all their players and that was rebounding. The zone is great for turnovers, traps, etc., but they were getting killed on the boards. Without Melo they got dominated on the boards, and they just had no inside presence under the basket. I think that Cinci will take a hint from the Notre Dame game and pound the ball inside all night, in which case Cuse might be in big trouble again. They panicked when they were down against Notre Dame, not saying that Cuse can't win (I hope they win by 50) but when it comes to betting I think Cinci is a solid bet, line should be lower and there is some good value in Cinci moneyline today.

[Madison]

It could be argued that no one is as hot as the Bearcats right now. They won at Georgetown, won at Pitt, won at UConn and lost in overtime at West Virginia -- all in the past three weeks. They're 10-2 since the Xavier debacle, with both losses being by a single possession. I was going to go big on Cincy here if Syracuse had beaten Notre Dame. Now I'm not so sure. The Orange are the superior team personnel-wise, but the Bearcats play better defense and could drag this game into the gutter. Problem is, they're just 1-6 ATS at home and facing an angry Syracuse bunch. Plus, I'm a little worried about them being road weary. I'm assuming Fab Melo is still out, which hurts the Orange against a pretty solid rebounding team (even though the Bearcats are more guard-oriented). Cincy is also balanced, with five guys averaging in double figures scoring-wise (Kilpatrick, Dixon, Gates, Wright, Parker). Thoughts?

RLM going against, no?

[southpaw74]

RLM going against, no?

Normal. 64% on Syracuse and line has gone up accordingly from -4 to -5.5.

[PAULYPOKER]

cinnci is gonna get buried

[No coincidences]

I like this play coin................

cinnci is gonna get buried

You crack me up Pauly. Anyone who thinks I'm a manic line watcher should observe your comments on games and reactions to the different moves -- you make me look normal.

[pattymayo]

5.5 now and might even go higher... I like Cincy too. Cuse a different team without Fab

[blackout31]

Lang is on Cincinnati...

[PAULYPOKER]

You crack me up Pauly. Anyone who thinks I'm a manic line watcher should observe your comments on games and reactions to the different moves -- you make me look normal.

The only difference is coin,I don't make a premature decision.......

[No coincidences]

The only difference is coin,I don't make a premature decision.......

You mean like saying it was going to be an all-Harbaugh Super Bowl?

[og4667]

liking Cincy on a national TV game as a home dog...they can hang with anybody and Fab being out for Syracuse hurts them big time. He is their anchor on defense...Cincy +5.5 is a nice bet...Syracuse could also have a hangover from their loss at ND knowing that their perfect season is over and their chemistry is a bit off.

[BigDofBA]

No play for me.

I think the line should be 5-6 and that's about what it is.

[PAULYPOKER]

You mean like saying it was going to be an all-Harbaugh Super Bowl?

It should have been this way, the only things that stopped this from happening was total fluke plays twice from both Harbaugh teams........


But anyhow coin, I already told you before I never place actual bets until game time which at many times contradict my posts..

[No coincidences]

It should have been this way, the only things that stopped this from happening was total fluke plays twice from both Harbaugh teams........


But anyhow coin, I already told you before I never place actual bets until game time which at many times contradict my posts..

So you just follow late steam and get bad numbers? How's that working for you?

[No coincidences]

liking Cincy on a national TV game as a home dog...they can hang with anybody and Fab being out for Syracuse hurts them big time. He is their anchor on defense...Cincy +5.5 is a nice bet...Syracuse could also have a hangover from their loss at ND knowing that their perfect season is over and their chemistry is a bit off.

Hey og. I agree in theory. Depends on if Cincy can knock down shots against the matchup zone.

[PAULYPOKER]

So you just follow late steam and get bad numbers? How's that working for you?

Great.....

Haven't had a negative day in over 2 weeks.........

[No coincidences]

Great.....

Haven't had a negative day in over 2 weeks.........

Outside of the small sample size (two weeks)?

If this is the case, why are you telling me to take the ATL/MIL over now in my thread without waiting to see what the number does late? It's already lower than the # you suggested....

[PAULYPOKER]

Outside of the small sample size (two weeks)? If this is the case, why are you telling me to take the ATL/MIL over now in my thread without waiting to see what the number does late? It's already lower than the # you suggested....

I don't like this play anymore.........

[BoutDemCowboys]

Take Cuse... They wont lose 2 in a row thats for sure. Yeah Melo was out and he fills that zone extremely well, but Cuse just had an off day against ND, and that happens to any team, no one goes undefeated! Shots were not falling for Cuse, and as I agree with you they may have seemed lost without their big man, they still have 2 decently sized players backing Melo up. Baye Mousse Keita at a solid 6'10 and Rakeem Christmas at 6'9. I guarentee Boeheim agonized watching the tapes of the ND loss, and has come up with a solution to fix this problem. Also dont forget how deep Cuse is, it was an off day last Saturday. I said it last week before the start of the game Cuse is gonna lose to either ND or Cincy but not both. To me that was a good loss if that makes any sense, dont wanna go into the toruny undefeated, thats for sure, and it puts Cuse in check!

BOL to evetyone!

Cheers!

[arnoldrothstein]

This no coincidences hands down worse handicapper on this site. Dies this dude ever pick a winner? Cuse for a G his cincy pick confirms it for me!

[dynamite140]

This no coincidences hands down worse handicapper on this site. Dies this dude ever pick a winner? Cuse for a G his cincy pick confirms it for me!