Goodfella10's Plays - 1-16-12

Goodfella10 · 01-16-12, 04:36 PM

ADDING:

***KANSAS -6 (-120)
-Waited longer than I would have liked, but bought this down to -6. Kansas is tough at home and will likely be the toughest road game that Baylor has played next to Kansas St. Robinson and Withey make a good matchup for the Baylor frontline and should provide a real test for them. If Baylor plays their zone, Kansas will have to hit shots. I think the size of the Kansas guards will give Jackson more trouble than he is used to, but he can play and isn't going to be shut down completely. We have seen Kansas blow out Kansas St and also beat a Sullinger-less Ohio St earlier in the season. The Jayhawks need a marquee win and I think they will make a statement this evening.

Madison · 01-16-12, 04:59 PM

Apologies for being 3 days ahead of things but ... Interested in your take on the Baylor/Missouri game. Hate that they're coming of @ Kan but seems to me that this is a bad matchup for Missou. Comments appreciated when time permits.

Goodfella10 · 01-16-12, 05:21 PM

ADDING:

*MISSOURI -15
-Texas AM has really struggled with good guards and Missouri has some really good ones. The Tigers are a monster at home and Texas AM hasn't played well against elite opponents. I think this will likely be very close to the spread, but I still think the Tigers can get it done at home.

Goodfella10 · 01-16-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Apologies for being 3 days ahead of things but ... Interested in your take on the Baylor/Missouri game. Hate that they're coming of @ Kan but seems to me that this is a bad matchup for Missou. Comments appreciated when time permits.

I don't think Missouri can win at Baylor. I am guessing the spread will be Baylor favored between 4-6 points. In their last meeting, Bowers had a 20pt, 9reb performance, but he is out for the season and Baylor has added Miller to their frontline. Ratliffe also held his own last year with 11pts, 13rebs. That being said, I think Baylor has the obvious advantage in the post and on the frontline, while Missouri has better guards. Jackson is really, really good, but as a unit Missouri is considerably better. Another thing to consider is that Missouri hasn't played a difficult road schedule to this point of the season and their one tough game at Kansas St was a 16pt loss.

I personally believe we will see tonight when Baylor visits Kansas that Baylor's guards are going to have problem with size, but Missouri's guards are smaller so that is a non-issue. It will be interesting to see if Baylor zones Missouri because they shoot 40% from the 3pt line and the fact that Mizzou presses should make Baylor's bigs less of a factor than usual. I will have to see what the spread comes out as and how these teams play today to make a decision. My hunch is that it will be a no play for me because I see the spread being spot on.

Madison · 01-16-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by Goodfella10

I don't think Missouri can win at Baylor. I am guessing the spread will be Baylor favored between 4-6 points. In their last meeting, Bowers had a 20pt, 9reb performance, but he is out for the season and Baylor has added Miller to their frontline. Ratliffe also held his own last year with 11pts, 13rebs. That being said, I think Baylor has the obvious advantage in the post and on the frontline, while Missouri has better guards. Jackson is really, really good, but as a unit Missouri is considerably better. Another thing to consider is that Missouri hasn't played a difficult road schedule to this point of the season and their one tough game at Kansas St was a 16pt loss. I personally believe we will see tonight when Baylor visits Kansas that Baylor's guards are going to have problem with size, but Missouri's guards are smaller so that is a non-issue. It will be interesting to see if Baylor zones Missouri because they shoot 40% from the 3pt line and the fact that Mizzou presses should make Baylor's bigs less of a factor than usual. I will have to see what the spread comes out as and how these teams play today to make a decision. My hunch is that it will be a no play for me because I see the spread being spot on.

Much appreciated GF. First Miss doesn't press like they did LY because the rotation is so short. KS is somewhat similar to Bay in that they are big/long and Phys. I just see Miss having major issues with the length and comparative athleticism of Bay. I think you got the line right but I might pair them up in a tease or ML. Just looks like a bad Miss matchup Length and Athleticism to me. BOL.

Goodfella10 · 01-16-12, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Much appreciated GF. First Miss doesn't press like they did LY because the rotation is so short. KS is somewhat similar to Bay in that they are big/long and Phys. I just see Miss having major issues with the length and comparative athleticism of Bay. I think you got the line right but I might pair them up in a tease or ML. Just looks like a bad Miss matchup Length and Athleticism to me. BOL.

Best of luck on whatever you play. I think Baylor ML is a safe bet, but the pay off may not be what you like if the spread is higher than we expect. I think you are correct about Baylor being similar to Kansas St's length and athleticism, but I see them as much more finesse than Kansas St. There are few teams that match the Wildcat's physical play.

shopbar picks · 01-17-12, 12:49 AM

Great stuff. Seems Ncaa is easy for you. Your take on the game is very good. thanx SBP

Madison · 01-17-12, 09:52 AM

There are few teams that match the Wildcat's physical play.

That was certainly a mis-statement on my part as i totally agree on KS physicality vs Baylor. I was thinking more in regard to Missou.

Nice night ..