Fade Away NCAA BBall Thread
Trying a new model...All plays are 2 units except as noted. 2 units is approximately 1.3% of bankroll
1/4
FSU -12 U125.5
LaSalle +2 X1, +115X1, O139.5
1/4
FSU -12 U125.5
LaSalle +2 X1, +115X1, O139.5
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-
Notre Dame +8.5 U122.5
Tulane +6.5 U130
Delaware -3.5 U136.5
Drexel -20.5 U114.5
St. Joseph +1.5 O148
Georgetown -5.5 U137.5
UNC Wilm +3.5 O133.5
W Virginia -3.5 O133.5
St. Bona -9.5 U125.5
Temple +7.5 O151
James Mad -5 O134Comment -
VCU -7 U134
Richmond +3 O132Comment -
S Ill +3 U137.5
St. Lou -3.5 O122.5
Hou +2 O139.5
KSU +9 O139.5
UTEP +11.5 U129.5
Mem -8 O146
Murr St -16.5 U125.5
UNI -5.5 U123.5
OK St -10.5 O130
E Car +10 U132.5
Rice +2.5 O143
SIU Ed +3.5 O135.5
Wich St -11.5 O143.5
MO St -7.5 U127.5Comment -
Texas -2 U142.5
Iowa +8.5 O139
Syr -13.5 O137Comment -
Back to the drawing board...
All 2 units:
GA Southern +7
Citadel +12
Canisius +8.5
Geo Mas +3.5
Fordham +12.5
DePaul +5
Fl Atl -13
Cle St -16
Loy Chi +8.5
W. Ill +7
IPFW -2
Manhattan +6
Denver -3.5
S Ala -3.5
Coll Char -1.5
App St Pk
Tenn St +4.5
Tenn Martin +4
Vill -7.5
W KY +1.5
More St. +2.5
MTSU -9.5Comment -
Gonz -21
Stan -1.5
Wash St -12 X4
SD +18.5
Wash -3
BYU -9.5
Indiana -7.5
Web St +3.5
SD ST. -5.5
UCSB -9
UC Irvine +4 X4
Cal +2
UC Dav +3.5
LBSU -10
N. AZ +8.5
AZ St. +9.5Comment -
Rev 1 (1/4)
ATS: 14-17-1
OU: 15-16-1
Total: 29-33-2, Approx -13.8 Units
Rev 2 (1/5)
ATS: 23-15, Approx +12.6 Units
Rev 2 (1/6) - ATS 2 Units, OU 1 Unit except as noted
Butler -3, O116
Marist +6.5, U151.5
Siena +6, O125
Valpo +5, U149
Niagra +20, U160 X2Comment -
1/6 Results:
ATS: 3-2 +1.6 Units
OU: 4-1 +3.9 Units
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 26-17, +14.2 Units
OU: 4-1, +3.9 Units
Tot: 30-18, +18.1 Units
I won't be factoring in Rev 1's results. The methodology used is completely different between Rev 1 and Rev 2.
Sat 1/7 (2 units unless noted):
Tenn +8
Xavier -7 X4
GA Tech +12
W VA -2
Loy MD -12.5
Ill -10
MO St. +2Comment -
Aub +16.5
Miss +6
KSU +2
TT +14.5
OK +6
Cincy -11
Northeastern +4.5
Harv -21
W Mich +6.5
Cle St -14
Wash -14.5
BC +32Comment -
Iowa +11.5
S. Ill +11
Davidson -17.5
IPFW -1.5Comment -
Didn't post before start:
Iowa +11.5
S Ill +11
Davidson -17.5
Troy +2.5Comment -
Seton Hall -3
Bowl Grn +3.5
BYU -15.5
IUPUI +6Comment -
Fl Intl. -8 X 3Comment -
NM St -5.5
Drake +2.5
Rice +3.5
St. Lou -16.5 X3
UConn -6
Gonz -18
Pepper +4
Murray St -4.5 X 3
S Dak +5
S Dak St +7.5 X 3Comment -
More St. +7 X 3Comment -
San Diego +3
Memphis -4.5
Hou +6
E Wash -13
Mont -6 X 4
ND St -5.5 X 4Comment -
Cal Poly -7
UC Irv -4
Web St -4
No Col -2.5
SJ St +7.5Comment -
1/7 Results:
ATS: 27-24 +1.7 Units (52.9)
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 53-41, +16.1 Units (56.3%)
OU: 4-1, +3.9 Units
Tot: 30-18, +20.0 Units
Units Wag: 213
This is close to what I was hoping for. The model gives me an expected winning percentage, and I have been posting all plays >=55% (a few at >=54.5%). Almost all of these plays are between 55-60%. I'm not looking at injuries, suspensions, etc. so I would hope for 55%. Sample size is still too small to make any conclusions at this point.Comment -
Ind -6Comment -
Forgot to post...
Niag +4
La Salle -6
St. Pete -3
Marist +15.5
Elon Pk
AZ -3 X3
NC St -11
Min -2.5
Cal -2.5Comment -
Correction to yesterday's results, when looking at the results, I found that I gave Loyola MD a loss, when they actually covered (looked at Loyola Mary/San Diego game)...Corrected results:
1/7 Results:
ATS: 28-23 +5.9 Units (54.9%)
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 54-40, +20.3 Units (57.4%)
OU: 4-1, +3.9 Units
Tot: 30-18, +24.2 Units
Units Wag: 213Comment -
Correction....Had Ariz +1.5Comment -
WVA +6, U138
OU -2, O131
All X2Comment -
FL Atl Pick, O118.5
GTown -6.5, O124.5
Wyo -16X4, O117.5X1
St. Mary's -16.5, O142X1Comment -
1/8 Results:
ATS: 3-6 -6.2 Units
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 57-46, +12.1 Units
OU: 4-1, +3.9 Units
Tot: 61-47, +16.0 Units
Units Wag: 213
Note about yesterday's results...Made a mistake in making a wager. The model predicted Rider, and somehow I bet St. Peter!? I've since added in data from the last two years. After re-running the predictions with the additional data, the model would have been between 7-4 and 8-3 depending on where the line was when I hit it. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. I've also automated the predictions, so I should be posting much earlier and can now predict the OU.Comment -
1/9 Results:
ATS: 3-3 +1.4 Units
O/U: 5-1 +5.8 Units
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 60-49, +13.5 Units (55.0%)
OU: 9-2, +9.7 Units (81.8%)
Tot: 69-51, +23.2 Units (57.5%)
Units Wag: 252 UnitsComment -
1/10:
Will add games depending on line movement...
S Florida +5.5
Evan +7
Ball St -5
Ill St +13.5
KSU -2
Miami +16 X4
Illinois +9.5X4
N Iowa +7Comment -
Adding
Seton Hall -11.5 X2 (Total of X4)
Louisville -7.5 X2 (Total of X4)
Notre Dame -5.5 X4 (to compensate on the mistaken 2X bet on S. Florida)Comment -
La Sal/Penn O136.5
DeP/SH U151
Ill St/Wich St U136
Bay/KSU O133X4
Mia/NC U154.5
UNI/Cre U142.5
FL St/V Tech O123.5
Iowa/MSU O141.5
Louis/Prov O132.5
USF/ND O120
Evan/Ind St O133.5
Ball St/Tol U135
GA/FL U138.5
Brad/Drake U144
S Ill/MO St U132
OSU/ILL O124X4
Vand/SC U131
All X2 for nowComment -
Adding
Ind St. +8 (also on +7)
Ill St. +13.5X4
Brad +10
Missouri St -11Comment -
Also ML Bets: 0.2 Units Dog, to win 0.2 Units Fav
Set Hall
Evan
Ball St
MO St
KSU
Miami
IllComment -
1/10 Results:
ATS: 9-4 +10.6 Units (The USF bet mistake (2X) and correction ND (4X) above are treated as 1-0, but the -0.2 Units are included in the results. I.e. 1-0, +1.8 Units on the bet).
O/U: 10-7 +8.6 Units
Rev 2 Totals:
ATS: 69-53, +24.1 Units (56.6%)
OU: 19-9, +9.7 Units (67.9%)
Tot: 69-51, +42.4 Units (58.7%)
Units Wag: 324 UnitsComment -
keep it up. you're getting hotComment -
ML Results...Doubt I'll update this moving forward unless someone cares...Or post price...
Set Hall - Win 0.2
Evan - Lose 0.2
Ball St - Win 0.2
MO St - Win 0.2
KSU - Lose 0.3
Miami - Lose 0.2
Ill - Win 0.71
Total: Up 0.61 UnitsComment