BB_Juice's Big West Conference

CollegeOverUnder · 01-04-12, 04:16 PM

good stuff good luck

blackberry_juice · 01-04-12, 04:43 PM

Initial Rankings/ Commentary

1. Long Beach St.- My #1 sleeper team coming into the year. Unfortunately, anyone who was sleeping on them woke up real quick when they went to Pitt 2nd game of the year and won in business-like fashion. This team can hang with anyone in the country (Just ask KU or UNC) and I'm sure they expect nothing less than to go 16-0 in league play. And they probably will have to if they want an argument for an at large bid come selection sunday.

2. UCSB- Probably the top challenger to CSULB for a conference title. Their star G Orlando Johnson would be a household name if he played for a power conference school. Throw in James Nunnaly at wing and you have the most formidable 1-2 punch in the league. Some would say not living up to expectations after dropping their last three non-conference games, but they weren't exactly playing cupcakes (UW, BYU, Cal)

3. Cal Poly- This team reminds me of Wisconsin. Don't have a star scorer, but play suffocating D and play a 10-man rotation with scoring spread around equally. No marquee non-con win, but played Depaul and St. Mary's extremely tough. Also held a meh USC squad to 36 points in a win. Easily could be ranked 2nd but dropped their league opener to UCSB so the Gauchos get the nod.

That's all for now. The rest to come later.

CollegeOverUnder · 01-04-12, 04:50 PM

I really like the Cal Poly team

Filmoz · 01-04-12, 04:54 PM

BB, let's get em. To me, the Big West is like the MAAC of the west: bunch of non-football schools in urban areas that get the surplus of talent that gets shut out of the elite conference schools. That + good coaching means lots of great non-conference upsets and good games.

blackberry_juice · 01-04-12, 07:30 PM

4. Fullerton St.- This is one of the more intriguing teams in the BW. Like many other squads in the conference they capitalize on transfers. The big two this year for the Titans are Kwame Vaughn (San Francisco) and D.J. Seeley (Cal). They team up with sophomore standout Isaiah Umipig in a strong 3-guard backcourt. Their lack of size hasn't killed them so far as they rank 24th nationally in rebounding in addition to being 17th in scoring. The question for them is how far can their starting 5 carry them as they see the vast majority of minutes due to a shallow rotation.

5. UC Irvine- This team is going through some growing pains this year as they try to replace their top three scorers from last year. However, I think this team will be a force come tourney time. They led CSULB at halftime before the wheels fell off in the 2nd and they've hung with decent teams like Weber St., LSU, and So. Miss. Watch out for Derick Flowers, as he's seen his playing time spike in the past few weeks and he's shown why.

6. UC Riverside- It's hard to put a finger on how well the Highlanders will play this season. They have all but one of their top performers from last year returning. Throw in key transfer Robert Smith, cleared to play less than a month ago, and you'd think this team could push for a winning record in BW play building off of last year's 6-10 finish. But they came out flat against a hot shooting CSUN team in their league opener and lost by double digits.

7. Northridge St.- The Matadors had to expect an uphill battle coming into the year losing last season's top 3 minute-getters. Luckily stud freshman Stephan Hicks arrived on campus and can be credited as CSUN's savior this season. The 6-5 wing is averaging 16 points and 8 rebs so far, leading the team in both categories. However, the rest of the team will need to contribute to their awful O, outside of relying on 3's like they did in their win over UCR.

8. Pacific- Losing essentially their whole rotation from last season, expectations can't be too high for this Tigers team. They are pretty much a group of JC transfers thrown together with no prior team experience to build off of and it shows in their horrific offensive performance. Perhaps this is another squad that will improve on a game to game basis and falling to CSUF by only 5 isn't a horrible starting point.

9. UC Davis- Lastly we have the Aggies, a team that has yet to taste victory vs a D-1 opponent this year. But the Aggies provided a great example of what makes the Big West such a compelling league. Davis, 18 pt. dogs on the road against Fullerton St. in the conference opener and the Aggies only lose by 1! Maybe this Davis team heats up for conference play and pulls off an upset here or there.

Should be an interesting little project here and hopefully as the season unfolds we start making cash. 4 games tomorrow night., will try to preview each tonight or tomorrow.

blackberry_juice · 01-04-12, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

BB, let's get em. To me, the Big West is like the MAAC of the west: bunch of non-football schools in urban areas that get the surplus of talent that gets shut out of the elite conference schools. That + good coaching means lots of great non-conference upsets and good games.

Interesting I see the similarities. I love the competitiveness of the league and it's great team basketball. The low number of stars forces players to embrace their role and put the team first. Lots of times it is when one player tries to do too much that loses these games.

blackberry_juice · 01-04-12, 11:58 PM

Here is my first write-up. I will try to write up and recap as many games as I can but I will not play a side unless stated.

Cal Poly @ CSULB -10.5

I really like the Mustangs here. Long Beach St. will be taking everyone's best shot twice this season. The 49ers have thrown themselves into the public eye and have become a rather high-profile squad for the lowly BW. Cal Poly plays such great D and are the 2nd slowest playing team in the country behind Wisconsin. While I no doubt feel Long Beach is the better team, it's hard for me to picture them running away this one against the slow playing and stingy Mustangs. The 49ers have only won by 11 twice this year against lousy Auburn and UC Irvine. This is the big one for Cal Poly and coming off a loss to UCSB they have to want this one bad. Additionally, Cal Poly goes 3 men deeper in the rotation although at such a slow tempo that may not come into play.

I will comfortably lean Mustangs with the points, but no play as CSULB could come out wanting to prove something and try to blow Poly out and they certainly have the firepower to do so.

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 01:02 AM

Fullerton St. @ UCSB -10

Fullerton can score but I don't see how they contain UCSB on the defensive end. This is the rare case where star power dictates a matchup in this league. UCSB's Nunnally and Johnson will wreak havoc against an undersized and undermanned Titans team. There will be at least one mismatch as long as Fullerton keeps their 3-guard backcourt out against the Gaucho pair. Not only do the Gaucho's two wings have a favorable matchup, they also rotate between several big men down low that Fullerton on paper doesn't have the size to compare.

No play for me as I don't know Fullerton well enough to forecast what kind of defensive sets they may throw at UCSB. They did upset the Gauchos when they hosted them last year, but largely due to bizarre reffing. In their next meeting UCSB returned the favor and won by 15. Excited to see how this one plays out in addition to the CSULB-Poly game.

UC Irvine @ Pacific -3

At first glance I love Irvine here. Pacific plays at one of the slowest tempos nationally while Irvine plays at one of the fastest. If I had to guess I'd say Tigers Coach Bob Thomason is aware of how poorly his team defends so he has them hold onto the ball. Unfortunately, they struggle to score just as much. The Anteaters have their own struggles of putting the ball in the basket, but they are the far superior rebounding team. It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds. Will it be more run and gun playing to Irvine's favor or will Pacific be able to grind out their preferred low-possession style?

UC Riverside -2 @ UC Davis

Riverside feels like the play here. They are better rebounding and take better care of the basketball. I think Riverside comes out with a chip on their shoulder after falling victim to CSUN's sharpshooting. Would be very surprised to see Davis have success against a motivated Highlander defense. Davis has to feel good coming off only a 1 point loss to Fullerton. Keep in mind though this is a Davis team that has yet to defeat a D-1 opponent this year. I also think the Highlanders are still improving as this will only be transfer Robert Smith's 9th game with the group.

ksatch · 01-05-12, 01:58 AM

the Davis/Riverside game is sketchy to me pal. Davis is coming home for the first time in 5 games and their backs are to the wall. I know the Aggies are bad, and I'm usually the first person on the Davis fade train. I'm looking at the numbers and I think the Davis defensive numbers at home are a little skewed, seeing that the only Division 1 home games they've had are against decent teams (Idaho, Stanford, Sac St). If it was LBSU or UCSB coming into Davis at this spot, I probably wouldn't be as hesitant. With all of that being said, I can see Riverside winning here. I'm just spooked.

ksatch · 01-05-12, 01:59 AM

love the thread by the way.....I love betting Big West games

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 02:35 AM

Good to hear. Hope to see you around as the season goes on and look forward to hearing your input.

ksatch · 01-05-12, 02:56 AM

Just some food for thought tomorrow. The Irvine/Pacific game total opened up at 137. The adjustment has already been made to 134.5, which I still think is about 10 or 12 points high. Probably going to play the under. Unless the line steams to something outrageous before the lines open at my shop early tomorrow morning.

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by ksatch

Just some food for thought tomorrow. The Irvine/Pacific game total opened up at 137. The adjustment has already been made to 134.5, which I still think is about 10 or 12 points high. Probably going to play the under. Unless the line steams to something outrageous before the lines open at my shop early tomorrow morning.

See as I asked in my write up I can't say how fast the game will play. But Irvine is the better team and I'd guess that they're up-tempo play takes over. Not ready to cap totals yet, but that would be my gut instinct. Both of these teams are awful at scoring, and also weak defensively. Should be interesting.

Louisvillekid1 · 01-05-12, 11:21 AM

so no plays so far? nice work & great thread

19th Hole · 01-05-12, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by ksatch

Just some food for thought tomorrow. The Irvine/Pacific game total opened up at 137. The adjustment has already been made to 134.5, which I still think is about 10 or 12 points high. Probably going to play the under. Unless the line steams to something outrageous before the lines open at my shop early tomorrow morning.

Hope RAS stays away from this game.

Good luck.

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

so no plays so far? nice work & great thread

Nope I won't be playing anything tonight. I do like UCR, the line has moved up to 3.5 now. And thanks, really enjoy your big east thread as well.

Louisvillekid1 · 01-05-12, 08:06 PM

Thanks, BB... ill be checking this thread daily...

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 10:50 PM

Here's my first play.

UCR -2 2H (-110) 2u

blackberry_juice · 01-05-12, 10:56 PM

Saw this come out at 1.5 and got all excited only to see it jump to 2. Still valuable at 2. The game line was 3.5 and from what I can tell statistically UCR is in a good spot to win despite being only up 2 at halftime.

blackberry_juice · 01-06-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by blackberry_juice

Here's my first play.

UCR -2 2H (-110) 2u

0-1, -2.2u

Oh well, I thought it was a good spot. Saw that Davis was depending on the 3 in the 1st half and thought UCR would adjust and tighten up their perimeter D. Unfortunately Davis came out and hit 6 3's in the 2nd half finishing 9-20 on 3's. Also liked UCR's rebounding advantage and the fact they were going to the free throw line, showing Davis's weak interior was struggling. Davis is such a bad team, relying on the 3 might be their best bet offensively especially if they shoot how they did tonight.

blackberry_juice · 01-06-12, 04:11 AM

1/5 Recaps

UCSB 77 CSUF 64

This one played out they way I expected. UCSB's two studs simply overmatched going 18-8 and 23-6 on pts and boards. UCSB got to the line more and their hot 3 pt shooting (50%) didn't hurt. Fullerton just could not score on SB's matchup zone that surely frustrated the Fullerton guards. SB covers the 10 largely due to a big run before halftime.

Irvine 73 Pacific 69

Irvine at +4 was the only dog to win outright Thursday. This one was a total shootout as both teams shot over 25 3's. In the end more shots fell for the better team, UCI.

CSULB 55 Cal Poly 50

This one was played about as close as it could have been. Poly succeeded in keeping the game at a slow pace, but shot 1-13 from 3 point range. Interestingly they still shot 44% from the field. Long Beach played only one player off the bench, so it really took everything they had for them to pull this one out. Two tough losses for Cal Poly against the league's top 2 teams to start off the year.

UCR 60 UCD 58

IMO Riverside backers at -3.5 got burnt by the Aggies tonight. UCR had the rebounding and interior advantage but could not slam the door on the Aggies who shot 9-20 on 3's. Riverside continues to puzzle me but I am sure they aren't complaining about the win. However it was CSUN's shooting that screwed the Highlanders in the opener so perimeter D is something they will have to deal with going forward.

Louisvillekid1 · 01-06-12, 10:00 AM

nice recaps, looking forward to ur weekend plays

blackberry_juice · 01-07-12, 08:43 PM

CSUF @ Cal Poly -7

I am leaning Fullerton in this one. I won't be playing it because Poly is at home and desperate for their first conference win. Poly had to start league play against probably their 3 toughest opponents. Fullerton got beat pretty bad by UCSB but I think they were just overmatched by the Gauchos' athleticism and size. Poly, however, doesn't have comparable personnel so Fullerton won't be hurt by their small size. This is a big game for Fullerton as well and they should keep it close. Last year Fullerton kept their 2 losses to Poly to 4 and 5 points each.

Long Beach St. -14 @ CSUN

The 49ers are simply all around better than the Matadors. However, as I mentioned before Long Beach St. is the big one on the schedule for every BW team, especially at home. I'm not sold on CSULB's ability to cover big point spreads on the road so while I don't see any shot at an upset for the Matadors, I'm interested to see how this game plays out against the spread.

UCR @ Pacific -3.5

I want to take Riverside so badly, but I don't have a good read on them yet. I feel they aren't performing close to their potential and expect them to break out eventually and provide some excellent value ATS. Tonight may just be the night against an underwhelming Pacific team that is laying points and I don't quite understand why.

Irvine -3.5 @ UC Davis

Davis is intriguing because they've lost their first two BW games by a combined 3 points, covering the spread both times. These teams both love to shoot the 3 so while I'd like to play Irvine here, I respect Davis's ability to make enough shots to keep things close. This spread is set about where it should be.

Sorry for the lack of plays but things will begin to pick up next week. Tonight should tell how wide the gap between a lot of teams in the league is. If I had to pick a play it would be either UCR being more talented and getting points, but more likely Fullerton who might be able to move the ball and create enough scoring opportunities to hang with a tough Cal Poly D.

Louisvillekid1 · 01-07-12, 10:18 PM

enjoyed the read, nothing wrong with staying patient...

You can always bet small units beginning of conf play and increase as you get a better feel... But that just' me...

GL buddy

blackberry_juice · 01-08-12, 12:21 AM

Yeah I'm gonna start playing games next week for sure. My predictions were pretty solid this week so I have a good feel on things going forward. I'm curious to see what kind of value I get when the top dogs face the bottom feeders. It's time to get to business and put all this writing to some use.

Louisvillekid1 · 01-08-12, 01:32 AM

do you think Long Beach St goes undefeated in this the conference?... I know Santa BarbarA has got them the last few times...

blackberry_juice · 01-08-12, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

do you think Long Beach St goes undefeated in this the conference?... I know Santa BarbarA has got them the last few times...

I would be quite surprised if CSULB runs the table. They have a shallow rotation that would really be in trouble if anyone got injured. They should be favored in every game except UCSB on the road and that would be the one game I can see them losing even at full strength. Factor in that they are on everyone's radar after an impressive non-con schedule so you know every team is targeting them. To beat the 49ers would make the season for these teams.

Also keep in mind the BW doesn't field talent like other mid-major leagues so it's harder for the "powerhouse" to roll through the schedule like you see with Gonzaga-like teams. LB St. is a solid team but they aren't loaded up with talent to overwhelm the whole conference each night.

blackberry_juice · 01-11-12, 08:13 AM

Here are my recaps from this past saturday 1/7

Cal Poly 73 Fullerton St. 67

This one was not as close as the final score. Cal Poly busted an 18-0 run after trailing 7-9. Interestingly, CSUF shot well from the field at almost 50% and 47% from long distance. However, turnovers and missed free throws combined with Poly dominating the boards on the offensive end is what did the Titans in. Poly led by as many as 22 before CSUF came through the backdoor in the final minute to cover the 7 point spread. Despite dropping their first two BW games against top comp, the Mustangs have played well and been consistent enough to establish themselves as the #3 team. I still have the Titans 4th in my rankings but this game widened the gap between 3/4 significantly.

Long Beach St. 81 CSUN 68

Nothing too surprising in this one. CSUN was able to cover the 14 points by one and hung tough not letting CSULB blow the doors off of this one. I can see some value in the Matadors down the road as they'll likely be dogs in most of their games. But this is a young team that is improving each game and the fact they were able to play the mighty 49ers relatively close is encouraging. The other side of that is I'm still skeptical on the 49ers ability to cover spreads of 10+. They are a solid group that comes to win every night, but their lack of depth allows lesser teams to linger. They've opened 1-2 ATS, covering the one win by a mere .5.

Riverside 64 Pacific 57

It's safe to say the better team won as the Highlanders never trailed. They are led by senior G Phil Martin who is averaging 25 ppg in the first 3 BW games. He's put an otherwise sketchy UCR team on his back by shooting the ball well and getting to the line. Pacific is down this year, but they still are a tough foe on their home court so it was good to see Riverside get the road W. The Tigers are now 0-3 and struggling to find an offensive identity. Despite losing, they've managed to hang tight in their efforts so far. As for the Highlanders they host UCSB tomorrow night and I'm very curious to see what Vegas does with the line in that one as UCR was a 3.5 dog against the Tigers.

Irvine 70 Davis 55

It's shaping up to be a very long season for the Aggies. They're a mess defensively and almost as bad on the offensive end. UCI managed to force two Aggies to foul out, including their leading *available scorer in only 15 mins. Ryan Sypkens, who was averaging almost 14.5 ppg for UCD before suffering a knee injury back in November is apparently out for the year. Irvine is 3-1 so far and would be undefeated ATS if not for missing a push vs CSULB by a 1/2 point. They like to launch 3's and play an up-tempo style. They host Cal Poly tomorrow and if the Anteaters can pull off the upset against the Mustangs and their unforgiving D they will prove themselves as an unquestionable top 4 Big West squad.

blackberry_juice · 01-11-12, 09:00 AM

Updated rankings broken down by tier (Records ATS in parentheses)

Tier 1
1. Long Beach St. 3-0 (1-2)
2. UCSB 2-0 (2-0)
3. Cal Poly 1-2 (1-2)
Poly no doubt belongs in the top tier as they played the top 2 very close and come into every game with their game plan and execute it. CSULB will need to do a lot in the coming weeks to separate themselves from the Gauchos and Mustangs.

Tier 2
4. UC Irvine 3-1 (3-1)
5. Cal St. Fullerton 2-2 (1-3)
Irvine gets the nod for now as they've taken care of business against the lesser teams in the league but we will see if they are for real as they face Poly, UCSB, and Fullerton in their next 3. Fullerton has been unimpressive in their first 4 and would be 0-4 ATS if not for the backdoor cover against Poly.

Tier 3
6.UC Riverside 2-1 (1-2)
7.Cal St. Northridge 1-2 (2-1)
Riverside is barely ahead of Northridge and really shouldn't be since they lost to the Matadors by 11 in the conference opener. I still have faith in UCR and can't wait to see what they do against a contender like UCSB tomorrow but would not be surprised if things get ugly based on their current form.

Tier 4
8.Pacific 0-3 (1-2)
9.UC Davis 0-3 (2-1)
Davis really should be in a 5th tier but I can't deny them having relative success living and dying with the 3 ball. They lost to UCR and CSUF by a combined 3 points. But when their shots aren't falling they really struggle. Pacific is a team that just hasn't put together a Big West win yet during a tough rebuilding period. They remain a tough out at home and should improve.

Overall I love the parity so far. Even the top teams have no choice but to bring their best each night or are at risk to an upset. Being a mid-major league with individual talent at a premium, it's interesting to study how coaches mold their team's style and game plan and in a way I think this makes it easier to cap games. For me, it's easier to look at a game and compare teams as a whole rather than focus on individual matchups and determine who has the edge. Plays coming tonight or tomorrow, GL all.

blackberry_juice · 01-12-12, 03:06 AM

Cal Poly -5 @ UC Irvine

A good slow team vs fast team matchup in this one. I don't trust Irvine's ability to excel in the half court against this Mustangs D. I'm going to wait and see what the line does before picking this one but I can comfortably lean towards Cal Poly because I think their defense and ability to execute is more than the Anteaters can handle.

Pacific @ CSUN -4.5

I like the Matadors here. They're showing signs of improvement and get to have at a Pacific team off their home floor and out of its element. This might be the game Pacific breaks out and finally gets things going but hard for me to see that happening on the road against the Matadors who believe they can win and won't want to waste the opportunity for a W. This line might move and devalue my pick a bit since I think CSUN is flying under the radar in this spot, but if that's the case I'll likely add one more unit. CSUN -4.5 (-110) 1u

UCSB -8 @ UC Riverside

I really want to play UCR, but I just can't trust them in their first game against a top team. Will be very curious to see how this one plays out. Vegas adjusted rather quickly to UCR after labeling them a 3.5 dog at Pacific. 8 at home can be big, but the Gauchos have enough talent to keep things out of reach of the Highlanders. No play or lean in this one.

UC Davis @ Long Beach St. -25

I'm pulling the trigger on a just awful Aggies team here. 25 whole points in this conference is quite a number to lay against a Davis team that has already demonstrated success when shooting the 3 ball. In addition CSULB's lack of depth will make it that much harder to sustain such a large margin of victory against the Aggies.
UCD +25 (-110) 2u