1 CBB Play Thursday

[LT Profits]

Savannah State +26 -110 (Rebate Wager)

YTD: 96-61-1, 61.2%, +31.01

[Ambition]

It's got to +28 and I'm still thinking about taking Wisconsin.

[lbnon01]

Thank u if u have anything els pls post it thank u

[LT Profits]

Yeah the market disagrees with me here. This should be a plodding game with a projection of only 55 possessions or so, which in itself makes it hard to cover a monstrous spread. Also, one of the few things that Savannah does quite well is rebound (25th in country in defensive rebounding percentage, 80th offensive), so that should limit Wiscy second-chance points.

[RoadDog]

If Savannah St scores 45 points they cover. Simple as that.

[gba]

I dont think they will score 45, but I could be wrong.

[LT Profits]

Based on my projection of 55 possessions, I get Wiscy 64-41. Kenpom has 56 possessions and 66-41

[RoadDog]

I look at Savanah St's game at Butler as a pretty good measuring stick. Butler and Wisconsin have very similar defensive statistics and Butler won that game 57-42. Now, I know Butler isnt the Butler of old, but their defense is still very very solid and obviously they are well-coached.

Wisconsin on the other hand offers much more experience and offensive pop than that of Butler. I expect Savannah to score around the same amount of points as they did against Butler. In capping this game, I believe if Wiscy and Savannah St played Wiscy would score 8-9 more points than Butler did in their meeting. That would put the score somewhere around 65-42. This score would also make it very close to the total of 110. I have Wiscy winning this game by 23.

And to harp on what LT said, Wiscy has the 345th ranked offensive tempo in the country (dead last), and Savannah has the 302nd. This game should be slow slow slow. Also read what LT said about the rebounding. I'm not sure if this is a play yet for me, but the card is awful and this may be the best thing out there. Just my 2 cents. GL.

[RoadDog]

Wow, LT, we're on the same page.

[LT Profits]

but the card is awful and this may be the best thing out there. Just my 2 cents. GL.

That's a terrible reason to make a play. If nothing is good, nothing is good, no reason to force. I happen to like this play, if you don't feel comfortable about it, just pass.

[gba]

Heres alittle stat for ya:

Savannah State has lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 36.8 points.

[RoadDog]

LT, I said the card is awful, and that this is the best thing out there. Meaning, this game might look awful to bet, but its not. The other games are. I hoped my analysis aboved proved it was a solid play. Sorry for the confusion.

[RoadDog]

Heres alittle stat for ya:

Savannah State has lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 36.8 points.

Stats like that mean absolutely nothing.

[LT Profits]

Heres alittle stat for ya:

Savannah State has lost five straight against ranked opponents by an average of 36.8 points.

And all five off those teams played at a MUCH quicker tempo than Wisconsin does.

[LT Profits]

LT, I said the card is awful, and that this is the best thing out there. Meaning, this game might look awful to bet, but its not. The other games are. I hoped my analysis aboved proved it was a solid play. Sorry for the confusion.

It's all good, still love ya babe.

[RoadDog]

As I you

[iceaxe56]

Wiscy will win by whatever they want to--depends if the guys have a little side bet or not--it does happen you know

[gba]

Stats like that mean absolutely nothing.

Ok GL!

[gba]

Stats like that mean absolutely nothing.

Well I guess we can make that 6 straight!