Gwills ncaabb plays

[gwills]

Starting a thread as i have been doing okay lately....its just to help me keep track of it, follow if you so desire!

Plays today were:

Ohio State @ Kansas -.5
Ohio -2 @ Portland
Kentucky @ Indiana +6
Princeton +6 @ Drexel

[gwills]

Hah, good start. 4-0 since start of thread. Will post about tomorrow's games later. GL to all!

[gwills]

Only thing I see that I like tomorrow is New Mexico State -4 @ UTEP. UTEP is just god-awful. They play a bunch of freshman and have no guys that score in double digits. McKines is a legit go-to-guy for the Aggies. NMSU already beat UTEP at home by 16, and while revenge games are something I like to stay away from, i just don't see the Miners hanging in this one, even with 11 days to prepare. NMSU has had a week off, so it evens out. Hard not to bet against a team that scores 56 a game against bad competition.

12/11 Plays: (4-0 so far)

New Mexico State -4 @ UTEP

GL to all!

[gwills]

Only thing I see that I like tomorrow is New Mexico State -4 @ UTEP. UTEP is just god-awful. They play a bunch of freshman and have no guys that score in double digits. McKines is a legit go-to-guy for the Aggies. NMSU already beat UTEP at home by 16, and while revenge games are something I like to stay away from, i just don't see the Miners hanging in this one, even with 11 days to prepare. NMSU has had a week off, so it evens out. Hard not to bet against a team that scores 56 a game against bad competition.

12/11 Plays: (4-0 so far)

New Mexico State -4 @ UTEP

GL to all!

Adding Murray State +12@ Memphis to today's card!

[gwills]

1-1 today. NMSU seized control of the game, went up by 5 and then just blew it. Thought I was about to go 2-0 on the day. Oh well...

This puts me at 5-1 overall

New Mexico State -4
Murray State +12

[NeverBackDown]

[gwills]

Morning! After a 5-1 start, the only play I see that i like today is:

Portland State+14@ Oregon

GL to all!

[BoutDemCowboys]

Thanks for your post. I will be tailing Portland with ya! BOL you look to be doing very well, keep up the good work!

[gwills]

Result for today:

Portland State +14

1-0 on the day, brings me to 6-1 since the start of the thread. Doin' well! Playing fewer games this week as the games kinda stink.

[gwills]

After a solid start, have just one play again for tomorrow:

Illinois Chicago @ Oregon State UNDER 136

Like this a lot as I have it at a 72-50 type of game. Il-Chicago averages about 64 or so points on their road games, and that is against weaker competition than Oregon State. Meanwhile, Oregon State will be slowed down just enough by their defense, which is not bad at all, giving up 66 a game.

Either way, I see this at UNDER. Some leans were San Diego +10 and Il-Chi +17.5, but I'm not going to pull the trigger on those I don't think!

No one seems to be checking this thread, but hopefully my results will speak for themselves sooner or later, hah! It helps me stay level-headed if anything...

GL!

[Gooooducks]

Your on to it. I was thinking the same logic for the games tomorrow and had bet the same in all your games but I had UTEP and Kentucky.

[Gooooducks]

I like Wisconsin and San Diego without going through the numbers and is Oregon State really that good they lost to Idaho by 14 at home. I know Idaho is a better than advertised team, nearly beating a solid WSU team but OSU was awful that hole game. After going through the numbers and the fact that I've watched a couple OSU games, I really like Illinois Chicago. They have played good on the road of late nearly beating Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Green-Bay. By the way love Wisconsin to win by 25 tomorrow. Gl

[gwills]

Its funny you say that, I was just re-thinking my play and wanted to go with Illinois-Chi plus the points. I just figured when two below average teams meet to go with the under if the total is right, thats just me personally. Thanks for input!

[gwills]

Re-Structured the play for today after a move, and am going with:

Illinois-Chicago +19.5 @ Oregon State

6-1 so far

GL to all!

[tokio]

you got a good number. i grabbed 18.5

[gwills]

18.5 should be solid as well!

[ExperienceWins]

I got 19 this morning/ GL

[gwills]

Very confident about Ill-Chi, but also going to add Central Michigan +17 VERY SMALL. So updated plays tonight are:

Illinois-Chicago +19.5 @ Oregon State
Central Michigan +17 @ Minnesota

[gwills]

0-2 today, bringing me to 6-3 on the thread. Rough day, but it happens. Who knew Oregon State would play lights out and IL-CH would shoot like 2%.

Will post back soon.

[Gooooducks]

definitely a rough day. Gett em' tomorrow.

[gwills]

2 plays for tonights games...gonna try and bounce back from 0-2 yesterday! (6-3 so far)

South Florida @ Auburn -2
Cincinnati @ Wright State 1H OVER 50.5

Don't have time to provide extended reasoning, but Auburn has had 2 weeks almost to prepare for South Florida. At home, I'll take them. I think time of preparation is often overlooked. They will know every move USF will make.

For the 1st half total, I just find 50.5 an attractive total, even with two stagnant teams.

GL to everyone! Trying to get to 8-3!

[gwills]

Bounced back!

Auburn -2
Cinncinati @ Wright State 1H OVER 50.5

2-0 today puts me at 8-3 overall. Hope everyone else had a solid day as well!

[gwills]

Good morning, a 2-0 day yesterday put me at 8-3 overall.

Today's plays for me are:

Bradley +8
Savannah State +16 1H

In a matchup of two .500 or so teams, I will take Bradley with the points. I don't think George Washington has enough ways to score outside of Tony Taylor, and Bradley has a couple guys who can go score, inside and out. GW scores less, and gives up more points than Bradley, and has lost four straight (albeit against good teams). I feel comfortable with the points here and think it'll be close enough either way to stay inside of 8.

For the first half bet on Sav. and Wisc, the pace will be way too slow in my opinion for Wisconsin to be up by more than 16 points at the break. If you look at Savannah State's games against teams such as Indiana, Butler, and Georgetown, they were down by less than 16 at halftime in each of those three games. The Badgers are soooo slow with their tempo and grind it out, and if they come out a little cold, this will be an easy win. I like this a lot.

[gwills]

Can't wait 'till Saturday for a not-so-sucky slate of games!

[gwills]

Finished up 1-2.... 9-5 overall

Bradley +8
Savannah State 1H +16 (just barely missed it)
Gonzaga -10.5

[gwills]

Still not getting a lot of love for the thread, hah, but thats okay.

A lean for today is the OVER 152 on UCSB @ Wash U. Will decide sooner or later if its a play or not. Hopefully my picks have been helping someone out, 9-5 so far ain't bad.

[Sacdaddy05]

Im thinking this too

[gwills]

Illinois-Chicago +10
UCSB @ Wash U OVER 152

GL

[gwills]

Yeah, Sacdaddy, I just think they'll score a bunch. Washington doesn't play D and N'Diaye is out, so I think UCSB should score plenty (which they do well).

And we all know Washington will score...

[gwills]

2-0 today to go to 11-5 overall! Hopefully some are finding this useful...

Illinois Chicago +10
UCSB @ Wash U OVER 152

Will have another post soon with plays for tomorrow. Its finally saturday!

[gwills]

After improving to 11-5, have the biggest card up on the thread so far. Usually don't like to play too many games in a day, but I legitimately have found a lot of plays that I like. Below are all of my plays, with an analysis of each:

Temple +6
Temple plays D and has plenty of guys who can score. I watched them beat Wichita State and was thoroughly impressed. Ramon Moore, Fernandez and Kalif Wyatt are all legit scoring options. Eric is still out, but they have good defenders who can hold down the post like Anthony Lee. I am also basing this on the fact that Texas just isn't that good. If they're not hitting shots, they're done and I think the Owls win this outright. I think they have that 'get it done' 'it' factor.

Texas A&M +10
Another outstanding defensive team will be able to deal with a hostile crowd. They give up 51 points a game. That is impressive. People have been saying they have a struggling offense, but Khris Middleton (1 legit 1st round pick prospect) just came back and went off for 24. The pace of this game is what makes me lean Aggies. They will slow it down on defense just enough and win or lose by single digits. IMHO, a double digit loss will not happen.

Oklahoma State PK
New Mexico can play, they can. The Pokes have been playing well of late though, barely losing to Pitt and winning a tough road game at Missouri State. They beat Tulsa, too i believe. New Mexico is good and I take nothing away from them, but the fact that this 'neutral site' game is in Oklahoma is what makes me lean with OSU on this one. They barely beat USC on the road...

Ohio State -14
Sullinger back, and the Buckeyes roll. Its that simple. The only elite team So. Carolina played at home was UNC and they lost by 15. Ohio State is wayyyy better than UNC. I like this a lot.

Indiana State +12.5
LOVE this game and put 3 units on it. Vandy has struggled in both of their home games against great defensive teams this year. They lost to Xavier, who is very disciplined on D, and lost to Cleveland State, who gives up points in the 50's on average every game (I forget the exact number while writing this). Indiana State is solid defensively and will slow this down enough to stay within 12.5.

Ohio -6
Wright State is SOOOOOOO bad, as we all saw a couple of days ago. They simply can't score, and sure they play good D, but Ohio is a smart team with one of the most underrated PG's in the country in Cooper. Ohio as well plays pretty good D giving up low sixty's a game. They've won five in a row and I honestly expect them to win this by 12-15 points. Wright State's awfulness will be why they lose bad in this one.

Bradley +10.5
Bradley has won two in a row and just came off of a solid road win against G. Washington. Both these teams don't score much and don't give up many points, and again, I think the pace will be why Bradley keeps it close. I think that is often overlooked, and I see a lot of empty posessions which usually means a close game. Bradley should lose, but by single digits. If you look at Drexel's game against a similar team in Princeton, they won 64-60 in a low-scoring, close affair. I look for this one to be similar.

Illinois -1
UNLV is good. I'll admit, this is a "gut" pick. I kinda think the win against UNC was a one-time deal. They have recently lost to Wichita State on the road, and lost to Wisconsin on the road by significant margins. I think they have showed they struggle in hostile environments, and will struggle in this one against undefeated Illinois. Yes, I know, Illinois has won 10 games against almost no one, but I like them almost straight up here.

Mississippi State -3
Moultrie is "highly likely" to play, and I like them in this "square" play. I know Detroit will put up a fight at home, but Mississippi State has a lot of NBA talent on their team, and have shown they can win games this year. I like them -3 as Moultrie and Brian Bryant return to the team on the road.

Southern Mississippi -1.5
I bought this one down heavily, because I think it will actually be a pretty close game. People really underestimate this rivalry. Ole Miss has shown they can play this year, and stand at 9-1, but again, this is one of my 'preparation time' picks. The Golden Eagles will have had a weeks to prepare for this game, and I think that plays in their advantage at home. They will be ready for what Ole Miss throws at them. The Rebels have two 2-point road wins at Penn State and Depaul, but I think Southern Miss is better than both of those teams. I have the Eagles by 6 points.

Toledo +2

Bonus pick: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl OVER 59 (SDSU vs. ULL)

Hope these descriptions helped someone! I am feeling these picks, and hope that anyone who agrees will be pleased! GL!

[blackeyeshamus]

good work, brah.
thanks for your hard work,
and good luck!

[gwills]

'preciate it man. Same for you.

[gwills]

Results for Saturday (will give myself the bonus pick : )

Indiana State +12.5
Temple +6
Texas A&M +10
Bradley +10.5
Toledo +2
Oklahoma State PK
Ohio -6
Southern Miss -1.5
Mississippi -3
Illinois -1
Ohio State -14
Potato Bowl O59

A&M came out and layed an egg, and Temple just BLEW the game. They were in control for the first 30 minutes and then choked, I may have overlooked the importance of having Eric in there. I was confident in those picks, but oh well, a swing and a miss. Obviously the loss of Sullinger hurt me in that or I think Ohio State would have gone on an even deeper run to take control and win by 18-22 or so. I probably should have never picked Illinois. Indiana State was a huge winner for me today, as I made it a 'big play'.

Overall, 7-5 today to bring me to 18-10 on the year.

Tune in soon for more plays. GL to all!

[gwills]

Plays for today:

William @ Mary +33@ Missouri

Obviously a huge number here enticed me. I know Mizzou is blowing people out, but my main reason for picking this today is that it is a Sunday afternoon game. Sometimes in these games both teams kind of come out in a lull. Expect William and Mary to lose by 20-25, but not by 33. This is just too solid to pass up.

Virginia -1.5 @ Oregon:

That guy Scott inside is a beast, and the Cavs play AWESOME defense. Oregon just isn't that great, struggling with mediocre teams like Portland State and UTEP. I like the Cavs by 8 or 9.

Adden in: Portland St +9 @ Oregon State 1H