JasonD5 Friday Picks: 60-38-1 +38.2 units YTD
60-38-1 +38.2 units for the season
Here is what I have so far today.
VCU -4 (-105) for 2 units- Alright, going to fade most of this forum, becauseI really like how this VCU team has been playing lately. Their energetic and frantic full-court defense has been solid for the entire season, and now they finally seem to be figuring it out on offense and developing an offensive identity. It may just be a hot streak, but VCU has shot lights out over the past 2 games, and I think this trend will continue tonight because they do have a bunch of knock down shooters, and it seems that the percentages are starting to bounce back up to where they should be after their early season struggles.
Richmond will most likely play a zone tonight which will allow VCU to get up a lot of three's, and hopefully they can continue to knock them down. Richmond is a young, but very talented team. They have balanced scoring on offense, lead by the very impressive freshman Anthony Kendall who can score in a variety of ways, and have very solid defense, but this team doesn't do one thing particularly well. Not having a go-to game plan against a team like VCU can often cause a lot of trouble once they score and set up their energetic, trapping press. I think Richmond is more than capable of keeping this close and possibly winning if VCU isn't able to knock down their shots, but what I like about this matchup is that this is finally a game that VCU should win the rebounding battle. Rebounding has always been an issue for VCU and is one of the main reasons why they haven't excelled thus far.
However, Richmond is a team full of guards that focuses more on getting up shots and running back on defense versus crashing the boards. VCU should definitely win the rebounding battle tonight, and more possessions for a team capable of going on runs like VCU is very advantageous. I think Burgess will have another big game today, followed by the explosive guard Theus. While this is not really a road game for Richmond, VCU has played a significantly tougher schedule so far and I see the young Richmond team having some problems containing the all-around scoring ability of VCU. I think this will be a back and forth contest with VCU eventually pulling away at the end. If you don't care about the variance, I may recommend taking the ML here as we could get shafted by some late game bullsh*t as this game should be very close.
Old Dominion +2.5 (-103) for 2 units- Old Dominion has defined inconsistency so far, but I really like how they played against Northeastern on the road last game. I still think this team is very far from their potential, but they are getting closer and closer to reaching it. Besides Kent Bazemore and Nick Wright, ODU has more than struggled on offense. But what has kept them in some close games (including only a 10 point loss to Kentucky) has been their stifling defense, which is ranked around 30th in the country. Their defense should give Fairfield a world of trouble tonight.
ODU plays aggressive on-the-ball defense, and the length and quickness of their guards has allowed them to force an unreal 18 turnovers per game so far. This isn't as impressive once you realize that they give it back to the other team over 15 times per game, but nonetheless this team takes pride in their defense, especially Kent Bazemore who is somehow involved in seemingly every deflection and blocked shot. I think ODU's defense will hold Fairfield's offense enough to give ODU's offense ample opportunities to score, which they may need as Fairfield's defense is also very impressive at around 50th in the country. Rakim Sanders, the senior for Fairfield, is a double-double machine, but I think Chris Cooper can hold him at bay down low. With Sanders not totally in the equation, Fairfield will most likely resort to their tendencies to hoist up the 3, which they have not had great success shooting just above 30%. Combine that with ODU's solid and tight defense, they should not have great success in this aspect. While ODU has been very impressive on defense so far, the one area they haven't dominated so far on the defensive end has been rebounding. However, Fairfield is even worse than them at rebounding, so this should only help ODU.
Overall, if you're a fan of offense, this won't be a game for you. Both teams are very similar in that they struggle on offense and rely on holding their opponents on the other end of the court to keep it close (hence the 116.5 o/u which will actually most likely go under). However, as it is, Fairfield already averages nearly 15 turnovers per game, and this is against roughly the 200th ranked opponent defenses. I can't even imagine how many turnovers the 30th defense in the country will force tonight, and with this many extra possessions, I think I can comfortably take the points tonight. I think this will be a low-scoring affair in which ODU will eventually prevail, and if not win, force it down to the last few possessions of which hopefully the +2.5 will hold.
I will probably have a few more plays a little later. I would also recommend taking both ML's for these games if you're so inclined. BOL guys!
Here is what I have so far today.
VCU -4 (-105) for 2 units- Alright, going to fade most of this forum, becauseI really like how this VCU team has been playing lately. Their energetic and frantic full-court defense has been solid for the entire season, and now they finally seem to be figuring it out on offense and developing an offensive identity. It may just be a hot streak, but VCU has shot lights out over the past 2 games, and I think this trend will continue tonight because they do have a bunch of knock down shooters, and it seems that the percentages are starting to bounce back up to where they should be after their early season struggles.
Richmond will most likely play a zone tonight which will allow VCU to get up a lot of three's, and hopefully they can continue to knock them down. Richmond is a young, but very talented team. They have balanced scoring on offense, lead by the very impressive freshman Anthony Kendall who can score in a variety of ways, and have very solid defense, but this team doesn't do one thing particularly well. Not having a go-to game plan against a team like VCU can often cause a lot of trouble once they score and set up their energetic, trapping press. I think Richmond is more than capable of keeping this close and possibly winning if VCU isn't able to knock down their shots, but what I like about this matchup is that this is finally a game that VCU should win the rebounding battle. Rebounding has always been an issue for VCU and is one of the main reasons why they haven't excelled thus far.
However, Richmond is a team full of guards that focuses more on getting up shots and running back on defense versus crashing the boards. VCU should definitely win the rebounding battle tonight, and more possessions for a team capable of going on runs like VCU is very advantageous. I think Burgess will have another big game today, followed by the explosive guard Theus. While this is not really a road game for Richmond, VCU has played a significantly tougher schedule so far and I see the young Richmond team having some problems containing the all-around scoring ability of VCU. I think this will be a back and forth contest with VCU eventually pulling away at the end. If you don't care about the variance, I may recommend taking the ML here as we could get shafted by some late game bullsh*t as this game should be very close.
Old Dominion +2.5 (-103) for 2 units- Old Dominion has defined inconsistency so far, but I really like how they played against Northeastern on the road last game. I still think this team is very far from their potential, but they are getting closer and closer to reaching it. Besides Kent Bazemore and Nick Wright, ODU has more than struggled on offense. But what has kept them in some close games (including only a 10 point loss to Kentucky) has been their stifling defense, which is ranked around 30th in the country. Their defense should give Fairfield a world of trouble tonight.
ODU plays aggressive on-the-ball defense, and the length and quickness of their guards has allowed them to force an unreal 18 turnovers per game so far. This isn't as impressive once you realize that they give it back to the other team over 15 times per game, but nonetheless this team takes pride in their defense, especially Kent Bazemore who is somehow involved in seemingly every deflection and blocked shot. I think ODU's defense will hold Fairfield's offense enough to give ODU's offense ample opportunities to score, which they may need as Fairfield's defense is also very impressive at around 50th in the country. Rakim Sanders, the senior for Fairfield, is a double-double machine, but I think Chris Cooper can hold him at bay down low. With Sanders not totally in the equation, Fairfield will most likely resort to their tendencies to hoist up the 3, which they have not had great success shooting just above 30%. Combine that with ODU's solid and tight defense, they should not have great success in this aspect. While ODU has been very impressive on defense so far, the one area they haven't dominated so far on the defensive end has been rebounding. However, Fairfield is even worse than them at rebounding, so this should only help ODU.
Overall, if you're a fan of offense, this won't be a game for you. Both teams are very similar in that they struggle on offense and rely on holding their opponents on the other end of the court to keep it close (hence the 116.5 o/u which will actually most likely go under). However, as it is, Fairfield already averages nearly 15 turnovers per game, and this is against roughly the 200th ranked opponent defenses. I can't even imagine how many turnovers the 30th defense in the country will force tonight, and with this many extra possessions, I think I can comfortably take the points tonight. I think this will be a low-scoring affair in which ODU will eventually prevail, and if not win, force it down to the last few possessions of which hopefully the +2.5 will hold.
I will probably have a few more plays a little later. I would also recommend taking both ML's for these games if you're so inclined. BOL guys!
