Why is Middle Tennessee only favored by 4.5 over UAB?

LSUtiger · 12-07-11, 04:23 PM

This has been stumping me all day. I saw the line last night and added it to a 6-team progressive parlay I've been working on. Mid Tenn. -4.5 is my fifth pick, and I'm starting to get nervous because of fishy lines. On paper, MTSU is a far better team and should win this no problem. They're leading the nation in FG%, averaging 80 ppg, 8-1 overall with only loss in 2OT, and 8-0 ATS. On the other hand, UAB has only beaten Troy. UAB was favored by 14 and won by 12, and is currently 1-6 ATS this season. They are 1-3 overall and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Over the last four games, UAB has scored 46,54, 47,48,points where MTSU has scored 88, 90, 77, 77. MTSU has only scored less than 77 points once this season (58 vs. LMU), while UAB has only scored over 60 points once (71 vs. Troy) I have a feeling that UAB will get some points in the paint and slow down MTSU, but if MTSU shoots anywhere near their average I think they roll by 11-15.

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 04:26 PM

That is my take exactly. Hopefully others will share more input on this game, as I am considering putting several dimes on it.

+Even · 12-07-11, 04:30 PM

everything points to MTS and everyone is betting them....that's why I'm staying away

RoadDog · 12-07-11, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by +Even

everything points to MTS and everyone is betting them....that's why I'm staying away

ridims · 12-07-11, 04:42 PM

Jason Jones is out for Midd tenn which is somewhat a loss for them.

I would stay away.

Duke Fan · 12-07-11, 04:50 PM

From about 3 miles away, I have learned to avoid UAB regardless of the sport. Mess all over themselves when tbey have a chance to do something good, then bite you in the butt when you go against. With this many games on the board, look another way.

LSUtiger · 12-07-11, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by ridims

Jason Jones is out for Midd tenn which is somewhat a loss for them.

Where do you see that??

BernardMadoff · 12-07-11, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by ridims

Jason Jones is out for Midd tenn which is somewhat a loss for them.

I would stay away.

lol

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 05:14 PM

I pulled the trigger on Middle Tennessee, so let's hope like hell they come through.

Wager Type : Spread
Wager Status : Pending Risk / To Win Amount : 1,573.50 / 1,311.25(USD)
Accepted : 12/7/2011 1:43PM - PST

Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Pending
Sport / Period : NCAA Basketball / Game
Selection : Middle Tennessee St
Time : 12/7/2011 5:00:00PM - (PST)
Line : -4 -120

I lost a fricking dime last night on Marquettes sorry ass performance.

warriorfan707 · 12-07-11, 05:14 PM

With a name like that how can you back them?

Middle Tennessee State

They just sound like the blow

gba · 12-07-11, 05:15 PM

Im with ya....GL

ridims · 12-07-11, 05:15 PM

Jason JonesG/FOut Indefinitely (back)http://www.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketb.../20111207-771/

Jason Jones G/F - Out Indefinately.

ridims · 12-07-11, 05:16 PM

g luck

Ch Br · 12-07-11, 05:19 PM

hmmm

ridims · 12-07-11, 05:21 PM

there is a reason why the spread is where its at people

UAB is 0-5 ATS in its last home games. Wouldnt you think the spread would be higher esp against a team who is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 and is only lost once this year.

pffftt. good luck with this one. the books arent as stupid as you think.

ridims · 12-07-11, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

lol

testertips · 12-07-11, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by ridims

Jason JonesG/FOut Indefinitely (back)http://www.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketb.../20111207-771/

Jason Jones G/F - Out Indefinately.

makes sense why the line is where it's at.

still rolling with mtsu... nice and square. good luck to us

ridims · 12-07-11, 05:23 PM

id stay away no need many better games/options

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 05:25 PM

All I know is that I hope the trends continue!

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 05:26 PM

@ testertips

anthonyc023 · 12-07-11, 05:27 PM

just like the elon game the other night was a trap lol

testertips · 12-07-11, 05:29 PM

jason jones has played in only 5 of mtsu's 9 games averaging 25.9% of the minutes play on the team - lowest. would be nice to have him in but let's hope it doesn't factor much.

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 05:32 PM

.... explained by testertips below.

testertips · 12-07-11, 05:35 PM

anthony is laughing at everyone calling elon a trap when they easily covered... i don't think he's laughing at the mtsu play...

Urbanwildlife · 12-07-11, 05:37 PM

Thanks!

Maddhatter · 12-07-11, 05:39 PM

Jones being out shouldn't hamper MTSU. He missed the first 4 games this season. He is averaging 9.4 pts/game 20m/g in the 5 games he did play in. They still are undefeated on the road and they have the top 4 out of 5 shooters in their league on the team (none of them Jason Jones). Leading rebounders are Dendy and Sulton. He is definitely a contributor for sure but not a major one. I still like MTSU here against a mediocre UAB team.

testertips · 12-07-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by testertips

makes sense why the line is where it's at.

still rolling with mtsu... nice and square. good luck to us

not saying this is the only reason, but i'm sure it factored

chiliv5 · 12-07-11, 05:43 PM

UAB still has to get he ball in the basket. I hammered Ball State last night looking about the same as this with the money moving on Edwardsville. UAB is trash. IF they cover its a loss, but I can't imagine the books thinking they are going to clean house on this game.... Mid Ten ST it is...

Duke Fan · 12-07-11, 05:52 PM

Not applicable to this thread, but where do you find the SBR trivia?

Maddhatter · 12-07-11, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by Duke Fan

Not applicable to this thread, but where do you find the SBR trivia?

Seems to pop up randomly time to time.

BernardMadoff · 12-07-11, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by chiliv5

UAB still has to get he ball in the basket. I hammered Ball State last night looking about the same as this with the money moving on Edwardsville. UAB is trash. IF they cover its a loss, but I can't imagine the books thinking they are going to clean house on this game.... Mid Ten ST it is...

Number should be 4 based on ratings, still a road game for MTSU and UAB will start to click a little soon, they are young.

Jago2008 · 12-07-11, 06:45 PM

Its down to -3 1/2 now @ betonline. I jumped all over this too. Forget about analyzing the casino's line justification, that full point value is enough to convince me, a 7-1 team coming off a thrashing of Akron, facing a 1-6 team on the road, I'm sure they can cover 3 1/2. I'm rolling with you.

+Even · 12-07-11, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Its down to -3 1/2 now @ BetOnline. I jumped all over this too. Forget about analyzing the casino's line justification, that full point value is enough to convince me, a 7-1 team coming off a thrashing of Akron, facing a 1-6 team on the road, I'm sure they can cover 3 1/2. I'm rolling with you.

be carefull just looking at their records. A lot of people go into trouble doing that last night in the Wofford game

Night-Tripper · 12-07-11, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by ridims

Jason JonesG/FOut Indefinitely (back)http://www.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketb.../20111207-771/

Jason Jones G/F - Out Indefinately.

According to the MTS/goblueraiders website... there's nothing wrong with him.