JasonD5's College Hoops Thread

JasonD5 · 12-04-11, 05:17 AM

Not the start I was hoping for as a newcomer here, but we're going to right the ship tomorrow. Will be posting analysis and picks around noon, so stay tuned!

JasonD5 · 12-04-11, 12:47 PM

52-32-1 +35.7 units overall

After a bad start yesterday, here is what I have so far today.

Akron +6 (+100) for 2 units-
While this Akron team is coming off a blow-out loss to West Virginia where they came out very flat, this is a team that has tremendous talent that has not yet been shown in the early season.
Between the guard play of Nick Harney and Quincy Diggs, and the big 7-footer down low in Zeke Marshall, this team really has potential.
There was a lot of hype surrounding them pre-season that they have yet to live up to.
While Middle Tennessee State has played extremely well thus far (especially at home in the Murphy Center where this game is being played), there are a couple of reasons why I think Akron can hang around and potentially take care of business on the road.
Midd Tenn has played the 148th strongest schedule in the nation, and besides the win against UCLA (if u even wanna call that impressive based on how UCLA was playing in the beginning of the season), this team hasn't really proven anything against quality competition.
I guess u could consider a loss to Belmont by only 3 pretty impressive, but it was still a loss at home. Middle Tennessee State has been relying on their offense so far lead by Dendy, Knight, and Sulton and a team average of 80 ppg's, however, like I already mentioned, this has been against a very mediocre schedule so far and should go down against today against an Akron team allowing 67 ppg's against the 16th strongest schedule in the country.
Akron is accustomed to playing high-powered offenses so far, and this shouldn't be a huge factor in this matchup.
These teams have very similar numbers in terms of rebounding, and they are both very turnover prone (Middle Tenn St. more so than Akron), but there is one element of Middle Tennessee that worries me, and this is 3-point shooting.
When I see a team playing Akron, I would rather them shoot less three's because the inside presence of Zeke Marshall (averaging 3 blocks per game and altering countless shots) is huge and I know all of their drives would be contested (as long as he stays out of foul trouble which has always been his main problem).
However, this is not the case for Middle Tenn St. as 30% of their FG's are three's, and on top of that they hit a remarkable 45% from out there.
A key for Akron in this game will be limiting the long-range success of Midd Tenn, but I think they can do that as they've held great shooting teams to only 25% from 3 so far this season due to great perimeter defense.
I think Akron will come out strong after their let-down against West Virginia, and I think 6 is too many points.

VCU -1 (-108) for 2 units-
VCU is coming off an incredible second-half performance against South Florida, and I think this momentum will carry into their game today against George Washington.
VCU is not great on the road and much better at home, but I still think VCU is more than capable of getting it done on the road today.
George Washington has not been very efficient on offense in the early season, and have had some turnover issues early in the season at 14 a game, and VCU's high-pressured full-court press should only exacerbate this stat.
GW is lead by Tony Taylor scoring 15 ppg's, but besides that they really don't have any other go-to options, and I think the defensive-minded guards of VCU can really wear Taylor out and get him off his game early, which would definitely hurt GW.
VCU, on the other hand, has very balanced scoring, although they have had their fair share of offensive difficulties so far. This team is only shooting 38% from the field and is a team who is yet to find their offensive identity. But, as I already mentioned, they are coming off a stellar second half against South Florida where they shot lights out and completely controlled the tempo of the game, and I think that trend will continue in today's matchup.
Between the guard play of Burgess, Daniels, Bradenberg, and Theus, I look for this team to come out passionate on defense and efficient on offense and keep the momentum alive.

That should be all for now. May have some more later. Best of luck to everyone!

kpoker · 12-04-11, 01:08 PM

Fading

JasonD5 · 12-05-11, 05:33 PM

1-1 yesterday
53-33-1 +35.8 units,

Sorry for the lack of analysis on this one.
Depaul -2.5 (-115)-3 units.
BOL

JasonD5 · 12-05-11, 05:53 PM

Actually, here are my thoughts on the Depaul game..

This line flew up last night and I got it at -2.5 because I predicted it would keep going against me. I think Depaul will come out very strong tonight. Depaul is coming off a let-down loss at home to Mississippi where they were up 2 with under a minute left and choked at the line to give up the win against a very solid Ole Miss team. I expect Depaul to bounce back and win convincingly tonight. There are many reasons why I think Depaul will come out ready to play tonight. The first is based on their dominant second-half play against Ole Miss. Depaul was down 17 points with 13 minutes left against Ole Miss, and from that point on they absolutely dominated in every offensive category and ended up taking the lead with 1 minute left only to let it slip away. Keep in mind that Depaul pulled off this comeback against the 35th best defense in the country. I think this late-game offensive dominance will continue into the second home game in a row for Depaul tonight, and I expect them to dictate the tempo of this game from the opening tip-off to the final buzzer.

Wisconsin Milwaukee seems to have a very solid defense as well holding opponents to an incredible 55 ppg's, but keep in mind this is against one of the weakest schedules in the country. They have not faced an offensive-minded team like Depaul yet, and if Depaul can put up 68 against Miss, they should have some fun tonight against WM. Between the extremely talented Brandon Young and Cleveland Melvand (both averaging 18 ppg's) and the contributions from Jeremiah Kelly and Moses Morgan, this team flat out knows how to score. I think they will put a lot of pressure on WM's defense and expose it tonight. The second factor besides the offensive momentum of Depaul has to do with the relative strengths of schedule, as I've already alluded to. Depaul clearly has the advantage here, and their only losses are to a very good Minnesota team by one point and the last game against Ole Miss by 2 (both games they should've won). WM, on the other hand, has played a very weak schedule so far, and they seem to struggle on the road. Although they are 7-1 for the year, they only beat a dreadful Northern Illinois by 2, and a terrible Arkansas Little-Rock team by 5. They seem to be much more comfortable at home, and I think they will face some problems in All-State Arena. The third factor has to do with the coaching discrepancy. As everyone knows, Oliver Purnell is a very successful and effective coach. He should definitely have his team ready to go tonight after dropping the second game of the season that they should've won. Another major factor has to do with WM's troubles on offense. Everyone points to Depaul's lack of defense (and they really do not play much of D at all), but I don't think this will be that big of a factor tonight as WM has had trouble getting it done on offense. As I've already mentioned, they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far, and only average 64 ppg's. They do not do anyone thing particularly well, and while Depaul has trouble defending, they are still athletic and shouldn't give up as many easy buckets today. The few concerns I have is that Depaul will probably get out-rebounded tonight, and also WM is also careful with the ball (two factors which could once again be attributed to the lack of competition so far, but nonetheless two things to factor in).

Overall, I think Depaul is more than capable of a convincing win tonight. I would be surprised if it comes down to the last few possessions, and if it does than it would be disastrous as Depaul has already shown they can't hit free throws down the stretch. I'm hoping the game is over before the last few minutes.

That will probably be all for tonight. There might be a 1 unit play later, but nothing else big. Best of luck

JasonD5 · 12-06-11, 06:26 PM

53-34-1 +32.5 units overall

Here is what I have so far today.

George Mason +10 (-103) for 2 units-I know Virginia just beat Michigan and they are tough at home, but I like GM here because of the particular match-ups in this game. First of all, it will be a very low possession game like most of Virginia's games, and even though UVA has lock-down defense, GM has very capable scorers. It's going to be hard for Virginia to cover a double digit spread in a low possession game against a good offensive team regardless of how good they are on defense. Also, GM's big man Mike Morrison is so physical and aggressive, he will give Mike Scott a world of trouble if he stays out of foul trouble, and with Mike Scott limited, Virginia is gonna have to really knock down three's to beat GM. Also, Virginia will prob have some trouble with Pearson. Even though by looking at past opponents it seems Virginia is an easy pick here, if you look at the actual matchups, giving GM double digits seems too many. Also, George Mason also has a huge edge in rebounding in this matchup, which should create even less offensive chances for Virginia, thus making a double digit cover even that much more difficult.

Memphis +2 (-110) for 2 units- Not much to this except that I think Memphis is really under-valued here and Miami is very over-valued. It will definitely be tough on the road for Memphis tonight, but Miami really hasn't proven anything so far nor have they played a team with this much offensive capability yet. I really think Memphis should be favored in this matchup.

That should be all. GL

GeeVee86 · 12-06-11, 11:56 PM

I've spoken with Jason on a regular basis and he is a very knowledgeable guy that understands the game of college basketball. We've talked in depth and bounced thoughts on many games and I think it's important to not just know the math and stats but also the tendencies of teams,players, and coaches. He has a great understanding of the lineup and the way these teams play. He gives an added edge to his capping that some people overlook because they are so concerned with the math of it all. Don't get me wrong, the stats and knowing them are of great importance but knowing a little bit more about the team, the players, how they play as a whole, is an added incentive.

Best of luck to you Jason and to all that follow him foward. Keep up the great work