ranked team + pts v unranked team

[thetrinity]

not a big believer in this "trend" myself. it hit with virginia and missed with san diego st. why should a top 35-40 team like san diego st not be laying points at home against a fringe top 25 team like crieghton? they have to be favored in that game. i have no real data on these but on the rare occasions when a top 10 team is getting the points on the road vs an unranked team, it appears the home favorite covers more often then not. not buying it for a team barely in the top 25.

[HoulihansTX]

San Diego St. Blew a 17 pt lead in that game. They were moe talented, and the home crowd was invigorated. But Steve Fisher will always be a bad in game coach.

[No coincidences]

San Diego St. Blew a 17 pt lead in that game. They were moe talented, and the home crowd was invigorated. But Steve Fisher will always be a bad in game coach.

One of the worst to ever walk the face of the earth.

As for the original question, this will hit much more often than not. Isn't perfect, but I'd guess you'd be in the 60-65% range before all is said and done.