calmeat's NCAABB Picks

[calmeat]

OK going to start posting my system picks here. Past 2 days have been pretty good im still working out some tweaks. I will present my picks along with the system picks. I started NOV 21 and was 11-3 so figured i would start from then. I dont intend on posting how many units and such but ocassionaly may. If you see i have an error of some sort in my record please let me know. I need my records accurate for ongoing tracking. Thanks and hope to win us all some money. If i get you some winners all i would ask is some SBR pts. Thanks

NOV 22 ( yeah i now too late but here is what my picks were

11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 11W-3L
Picks - 0-0

Picks
BRADLEY
KANSAS

System Picks

Tennessee
Austin Peay
Brown
Southern Methodist
Louisville
Cornell
Marshall
Fresno St.
East Carolina
Elon
West Virginia
Cleveland St.
Bowling Green
George Mason
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Troy
Georgia St.
Iowa St.
Bradley
Oral Roberts
Kansas
Illinois
Boise St.
UC Santa Barbara
Sacramento St.
California
Cal Poly

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/22/11
My Picks 1-1
System Picks 17-11

[calmeat]

NCAABB 11/23/11

11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 29W-14L
Picks - 1-1

Picks
Michigan -6
LSU -15.5
Georgetown +1.5
WISC MILwaukee +13

System Picks
Niagara
Georgetown
Youngstown St.
Wisconsin Milwaukee
St. Mary's
Saint Joseph's
Mercer
Rutgers
Michigan
Bowling Green
Louisiana St.
San Diego St.
Nebraska
Air Force
Idaho St.
Syracuse
San Francisco

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/23/11
My Picks 2-1-1
System Picks 6-11

[calmeat]

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 35W-25L
Picks - 3-2

NCAABB 11/24/11

Picks
Oklahoma +2
5 pt Tease Connecticut -8 + Southern Mississippi -6 +Villanova -7.5

System Picks
Minnesota -9.5
Dayton -6.5
Arizona St. +3.5
College of Charleston -2.5
Connecticut -13.5
Harvard -15
St. Louis -17.5
Villanova -13
Santa Clara +7.5
Oklahoma +2
Southern Mississippi -11

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/24/11
My Picks 2-0
System Picks 4-6

[sos41]

Cal,
Can you add some background to the system, and the filters you use to get your picks?

Thanks

[calmeat]

@SOS yeah i will but it will have to be later. Got family things till sunday but ill try to get on here before hand to explain a bit. Super quick summary, its based on stats.

[calmeat]

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 39W-31L
Picks - 5-2

NCAABB 11/25/11

Picks
Rice +3.5
4pt Tease JMU -.5, UCONN -3.5
5pt Tease Cal Poly +1, BYU -1.5, Hawaii -5.5

System Picks (sorry no time to post spread)
James Madison
Connecticut
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Villanova
Mississippi Valley St.
Northern Colorado
Miami FL
Robert Morris
Dayton
Cal Poly
Hofstra
Rice
Brigham Young
UC Irvine
Ohio St.
Maryland Eastern Shore
Virginia
Pittsburgh
College of Charleston
North Carolina St.
Nevada Las Vegas
Tulane
Mississippi St.
Wisconsin
Portland St.
Massachusetts
New Mexico
San Francisco

[calmeat]

@sos41 thanks for the pts. that Rice game was a killer so close. UCON big fail today had it won up to 2 min left and just fell apart

Hoping HAW can win by 6 so i can at least win one bet today.

[calmeat]

Alright got some time to explain a bit. So system is based on current stats. First my system calculates what the Vegas spread should be and then takes shooting rebounding Free throw rate etc for each team and simulates the game. With those numbers my system spits out the winner of that game. There is also a rebounding advantage bonus for the team who outrebounds the other team.
I am currently working on filtering it more and those become my picks. Going through the past 6 days my picks would be 39-30 which isnt great but still working on tweaking it. The system works best in non tournament games so keep that in mind as well.

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/27/11
My Picks 0-0
System Picks 7-8

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 77W-68L
Picks - 5-7

NCAABB 11/28/11

Picks
Xavier +3.5
Pepperdine +12
Louisville -9.5

System Picks
Louisville -9.5
Louisiana Lafayette +14
West Virginia -10
Xavier +3.5
Tennessee -4
Stanford -19.5
Montana St. +4
Pepperdine +12

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/28/11
My Picks 2-1
System Picks 6-3

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 83W-71L
Picks - 7-8

[calmeat]

NCAABB 11/29/11

Picks
Georgia Tech +1
Houston -1.5


System Picks
Cincinnati -12
Syracuse -28.5
East Carolina +6
Georgia Tech +1 (Tournament)
Illinois -4 (Tournament)
Houston -1.5
Texas -20
Southeast Missouri St. +3.5
New Mexico St. -3.5
Ohio St. -6 (Tournament)

[calmeat]

Last night record 11/29/11
My Picks 0-2
System Picks 4-6

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 86W-77L
Picks - 7-10

NCAABB 11/30/11

Picks
Richmond -7.5
Wisconsin +8

System Picks
Drexel +5
Toledo -1.5
Massachusetts -21
Marshall -8
Northeastern +5
Pittsburgh -6.5
Furman +5
Indiana -1
Penn St. -4.5
South Florida +5
Richmond -7.5
Iowa St. -6.5
Tulsa +6
UAB -3
Boise St.-5.5
Brigham Young -15.5
Minnesota -2.5
Wisconsin +8
Creighton +2.5
Eastern Washington +2.5
Notre Dame +10

[calmeat]

NCAABB 12/1/11

Last night record 11/30/11
My Picks 2-0
System Picks 13-8

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 100W-85L
Picks - 9-10


NCAABB 12/1/11

Picks
Middle Tennessee -4.5
Murray St. -6.5

System Picks
Providence +4.5
Youngstown St. +8.5
Cleveland St. -6
Georgia St. -9.5
Kent St. -14
Davidson -6.5
Kentucky -22.5
Loyola MD -11.5
Illinois Chicago +13
Wisconsin Milwaukee -10
Kansas St. -10
Middle Tennessee -4.5
Murray St. -6.5
Mississippi +1
San Francisco +6.5

[calmeat]

adding North Dakota St. -6.5 to system plays

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/1/11
My Picks 2-0
System Picks 12-4

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 112W-89L
Picks - 11-10


NCAABB 12/2/11

Picks
Louisville -8
Washington -4

System Picks
Florida +6.5
Cincinnati PK
Manhattan +4.5
Iona -13
Louisville -8
Auburn +9.5
Washington -4

[calmeat]

Past 2 days

My Picks
4W-0L

System Picks
25W - 12L 67.56%

[sos41]

thanks

[calmeat]

Sorry forgot to post them
Last night record 12/2/11
My Picks 0-2
System Picks 3-4

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 115W-93L
Picks - 11-12


NCAABB 12/3/11

Picks
NP


System Picks
Iowa St.
Massachusetts
Richmond
Northeastern
Tulane
Valparaiso
Cleveland St.
Georgia St.
Minnesota
Youngstown St.
Ball St.
Cal St. Fullerton
Illinois
Wisconsin
Texas
Idaho
Brigham Young
Pittsburgh
Eastern Washington
North Dakota St.
Buffalo
Loyola MD
Tennessee Tech
The Citadel
George Mason
Illinois St.
Air Force
Texas Christian
Columbia
Louisiana Tech
West Virginia
Utah St.
Boise St.
Wyoming
San Diego

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/3/11
My Picks 0-0
System Picks 23-12

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 138W-105L
Picks - 11-12


NCAABB 12/4/11

Picks
Bowling Green -3.5

System Picks
New Mexico St. +2.5
Middle Tennessee -6
Marist +1
Southern Methodist -1
Bowling Green -3.5
Clemson -10
Belmont +2.5
Notre Dame -1
California -1
Fairfield -7
Kansas St. +4.5

[calmeat]

ah sorry guys forgot to update this site I will put the picks i have on my blog on here sorry.

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/4/11
My Picks 0-1
System Picks 5-6

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 143W-111L
Picks - 11-13


NCAABB 12/5/11

Picks
Arkansas St. +4.5

System Picks
St. John's -1
Providence -12.5
Arkansas St. +4.5
Wisconsin Milwaukee +3
Boise St. -18

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/5/11
My Picks 1-0
System Picks 4-1

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 147W-112L
Picks - 12-13


NCAABB 12/6/11

Picks
Marquette -8

System Picks
Missouri -8
Tulane -3
Iowa +8.5
Northeastern +1
Minnesota -16
Ball St. -15.5
Kansas -12.5
Marquette -8
Hawaii +1.5

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/6/11
My Picks 0-1
System Picks 3-6

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 150W-118L
Picks - 12-14


NCAABB 12/7/11

Picks
Davidson +2.5
7.5 pt Tease Wisconsin -12½ California -13 Davidson +10

System Picks
Toledo +12
La Salle -15.5
Georgia Tech +5
Alabama -6
Delaware +4
Davidson +2.5
Illinois St. -3.5
Buffalo -8
Loyola MD +5.5
Rutgers -6.5
Wisconsin -20
Southern Mississippi -6.5
DePaul -4.5
Middle Tennessee -5.5
Pepperdine +1
Oklahoma St. +4
Boise St. -14
Xavier -6
Illinois -11
Air Force -7
Cal St. Fullerton -8
Iona -2.5
California -20.5

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/7/11
My Picks 1-1
System Picks 15-8

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 165W-126L
Picks - 13-15


NCAABB 12/8/11

Picks
NP

System Picks
Providence -14
South Dakota +5

I am playing this tease though

Team Teaser (ties win) Teaser tw 7½fb & 5½bk
Providence -8½
South Dakota +10½
Pittsburgh Steelers -8

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/9/11
My Picks 1-0
System Picks 1-2


YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 167W-130L
Picks - 14-15


NCAABB 12/10/11

My Picks
Boise St. +1
CAL POLY -4.5


System Picks
Creighton -2
Minnesota -16.5
Georgia St. -10
Wisconsin Milwaukee +8.5
Brigham Young -22.5
Wisconsin -8.5
Ball St. -3.5
Kent St. -8
Pittsburgh -6.5
Toledo -5
Central Michigan +3.5
Ohio St. -3.5
Illinois Chicago -9.5
Clemson +6
Manhattan +4
North Dakota St. +3.5
Villanova +5.5
Middle Tennessee -20.5
New Mexico -4
Pennsylvania +6.5
Buffalo -10.5
Penn St. +7.5
North Carolina -16.5
West Virginia -6.5
Syracuse -19.5
Georgia Southern +5.5
Western Kentucky +7
South Dakota +6.5
Seton Hall -12.5
Nebraska -1
Boise St. +1
Texas A&M -21
Missouri Kansas City +3.5
Eastern Illinois +3.5
Marquette -21
Michigan St. +3
Nevada +2
Pepperdine -8.5
San Francisco -10
Cal Poly -4.5
Ohio -4.5

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/10/11
My Picks 1-1
System Picks 18-22


YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 185W-152L
Picks - 15-16


NCAABB 12/11/11

My Picks
NP


System Picks

Southern Illinois +8.5
New Mexico St. -5.5
Alabama -14
Cal St. Fullerton
Illinois -18.5
Hawaii -10.5

[agendaman]

c/o cal meat/looks ok so far/need further trials/i am a mathematician the figures dont lie/remember this cm/top of racing form says past performances ok/what horse has done not will do /get my drift /gl

[calmeat]

i get ya agendaman we will see about performing better

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/11/11
My Picks 0-0
System Picks 3-4


YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 188W-156L
Picks - 15-16


NCAABB 12/12/11

My Picks
NP

System Picks
Oral Roberts -7.5
Portland St. +14

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/12/11
My Picks 0-0
System Picks 1-1


YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 189W-157L
Picks - 15-16


NCAABB 12/13/11

My Picks
4 pt Tease Wisconsin -6, UC Santa Barbara -5.5
Central Mich +16.5



System Picks
Wisconsin -10
Mississippi St. -14.5
Minnesota -16.5
Wyoming -16
UC Santa Barbara -9.5

[calmeat]

not such a good night last night hopefully a rebound tonight

Last night record 12/13/11
My Picks 0-2
System Picks 1-4

YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 190W-161L
Picks - 15-16

NCAABB 12/14/11

My Picks
Eastern Washington +9.5

System Picks
Richmond +1.5
Princeton -4.5
DePaul -11
Northern Colorado +3
Eastern Washington +9.5

[calmeat]

Last night record 12/15/11
My Picks 0-0
System Picks 1-0


YTD
11/21/11 - EOS
System Picks 193W-165L
Picks - 15-19


NCAABB 12/16/11

My Picks
6pt tease ILL CHI +15, UC SB +13.5. CAL -9

System Picks
ATS
Illinois Chicago +9.5
East Carolina -5
Idaho St. -2
UC Santa Barbara +8
California -16.5

O/U
Cent MICH/ILL CHI Under 132
IDAHO ST/Utah Under 130