Who wins the Maui Invitaional??

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  • upscope
    SBR MVP
    • 04-26-11
    • 2837

    #1
    Who wins the Maui Invitaional??
    Nov. 21-23

    Duke -125
    UCLA +185
    Memphis +300
    Kansas +450
    Michigan +600
    Tennessee +1600
    Georgetown +1800
    Chaminade +12500


    Brackets:

    Duke
    Tenn
    -
    Memphis
    Michigan

    ------------

    Kansas
    Georgetown
    -
    UCLA
    Chaminade

    Duke (-125).....The Blue Devils should be the odds on favorite in Maui but certainly not a lock to win the tournament?? Can't see laying -125 on Duke here. Especially, considering how their bracket is much tougher. Memphis & Michigan are both capable of beating Duke in the 2nd round before they even reach the Championship game. I see no value betting Duke @ -125 in Maui.

    UCLA (+185).....I have no idea why UCLA is the 2nd odds on favorite here @ +185?? They will have little trouble W/ Chaminade in round 1. But, will then have to beat Kansas (likely) in the semis & either Duke/Memphis or Michigan in the Championship. They very well may get by Kansas but will be the inferior team against any three of their likely Championship opponents. Thus +185 simply is not a good enough price on UCLA IMO??

    Memphis (+300)....The Tigers return all 5 starters & very well may be the best team in the tournament?? Unfortunately, they have the toughest draw & must get by a very good Michigan team in round 1 & will have Duke waiting for them in the semis. If They can get through this they will certainly be a favorite over any team coming out of the lower bracket. Eventhough Memphis could possibly lose in round one they actually offer the best betting value of any team in the tournament @ +300 IMO

    Kansas (+450).....The Jayhawks are in essentially the exact same situation as UCLA. The difference is they are +450 while UCLA is 'only' +185. Kansas has a tougher 1st round match-UP vs Georgetown but should nonetheless have minimal trouble w/ the Hoyas. A UCLA/Kansas semi would be a virtual toss UP IMO. I much rather have Kansas @ +450 rather than UCLA @ +185. I don't think Kansas wins this tournament but +450 is not a bad price & at that price I see a little value.

    Michigan (+600).....This is a solid team & +600 is an attractive price but unfortunately their path to the Championship will be brutal. Will have to beat Memphis then Duke then either Kansas/UCLA. I'm not even sure +600 is enough for accomplishing that??

    Tennessee (+1600).....I'd rather spend my $$ on a bag of weed & a hooker.

    Georgetown (+1800).....

    Chaminade (+12500).....I think they forgot to put another 0 @ the end of this #?? And even if they did I still wouldn't bet it.

    My Pick: Memphis +300
    Duke is probably the best team in Maui but -125 simply is not a good price considering what it's going to take to get the job done. If Duke is the best team it's not by much over Memphis?? The Tigers are deep, they're experienced, they're athletic & they're well coached. And in a tournament that requires you to play & win 3 games in 3 days to kick off the season these are big advantages for Memphis. The only reason they are +300 instead +150 is because they have the toughest draw.

    Instead of betting +300 though you could likely profit more by betting a correlated three game ML chase & actually UP this price from +300 to approx. +450

  • CollegeOverUnder
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-20-10
    • 5520

    #2
    Michigan looks great man at +600 I been looking at that to. I appreciate your Memphis pick at +300 also though might I ask how many Units you put on it?

    I have to look at this more I'm sitting in class now just browsing the forums but this is a loaded as field
    Comment
    • iceminers26
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-13-08
      • 15600

      #3
      I don't know who wins it all but can't wait to get some FG and 1H spreads on Chaminade, they'll be big #s and we all know Chaminade will battle it out with most of this field.
      Comment
      • Chong Wizard
        SBR MVP
        • 03-15-10
        • 1005

        #4
        Memphis!
        Comment
        • upscope
          SBR MVP
          • 04-26-11
          • 2837

          #5
          Originally posted by CollegeOverUnder
          Michigan looks great man at +600 I been looking at that to. I appreciate your Memphis pick at +300 also though might I ask how many Units you put on it?

          I have to look at this more I'm sitting in class now just browsing the forums but this is a loaded as field
          My units vary between $60-$200 generally.......

          W/ Memphis I plan to bet them on the ML throughout letting it all ride each time starting w/ $100.
          If they win the tourney the end result would be $100 to win approx. $450.

          If you did the same thing w/ Mich. the end result would be $100 to win approx. $900 which is a more than fair price.

          Betting ML's throughout & letting it all ride will net you considerably more if your play wins the tournament. That is assuming no crazy upsets happen to the heavy chalk thus then making your play the heavy chalk
          Comment
          • CollegeOverUnder
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-20-10
            • 5520

            #6
            I really like Michigan and Memphis though I liked them in the preseason to at one point in my preseason poll Im pretty sure I had Memphis at the #3 spot before moving them around and I had Michigan at #10 I think I loved both of these teams int he preseason and think they are both set to do great things this season
            Comment
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