70kgman 11-12 hoops, ect...

70kgman · 03-20-12, 11:31 PM

I remember last season in NBA, there was nothing I loved more than seeing a 4th quarter blowout on a game I had the under on, it was an automatic clock management/low scoring quarter and a win. This year it apparently is an excuse to just play it like an exhibition game and run and gun up and down the court and play no defense at all. The amount of possessions in the final few minutes of that Milwaukee game (a 30 point game) was so absurd. Seems like that is happening with most of the blowouts this year.

It is amazing how many frequent and recurring trends I am noticing in the NBA this season that would of been a complete anomaly last season. It is like a completely different league this year.

Dan Kelly · 03-21-12, 08:51 AM

KeeLoe,

I have noticed it also - right from the begining of the season. It must be the shortened season and the heavy travel schedule. Next year should get back to form.

Thanks for your work

pokerwhiz90 · 03-21-12, 11:54 AM

solid!

70kgman · 03-21-12, 06:50 PM

2H: Middle Tennessee / Minnesota Under 71.5

70kgman · 03-21-12, 06:58 PM

2H: Robert Morris / Fairfield Over 68

70kgman · 03-21-12, 07:14 PM

2H: New York / Philadelphia Under 93.5

PistolPete13 · 03-21-12, 08:11 PM

got dicked on the rob morris game. 3 missed foul shots and 2 missed shots in last 35 seconds. Another loss by a point.
It's uncanny.

70kgman · 03-21-12, 09:52 PM

Updated Record: 232-181-9

NCAAB
1H: 54-43-3
2H: 121-84-3

NBA
1H: 13-16
2H: 35-30-3
FG: 9-8

70kgman · 03-23-12, 10:04 PM

2H: Kentucky / Indiana Over 79.5

70kgman · 03-23-12, 10:29 PM

2H: NC State / Kansas Over 75.5

70kgman · 03-25-12, 12:08 PM

Strong plays in my opinion. As someone who watches every Bruins game, I would be willing to bet Turco ends up starting this game, I can see this moving to 5.5 or the over 5 getting juiced to the ceiling once/if Turco is confirmed. Do what you want with them.

Boston/Anaheim Over 5 (-140)

1st period: BOS/ANH Over 1.5 (+120)

Cutler'sThumb · 03-25-12, 01:08 PM

I'll trust your judgement on this game 70. Situational plays can be very good when you know your team well. Just gotta stay objective, which I doubt you have any trouble with.

70kgman · 03-25-12, 08:16 PM

2H: Miami / OKC Under 98

70kgman · 03-25-12, 10:36 PM

Turco played great, never saw that one coming. Surprised both teams were so flat in the 1st period too, normally they are are two loose high scoring 1st period teams. At least got the push on the full game total. Almost never lose my Bruins spot plays. Figures, the one time I post it in here.

70kgman · 03-25-12, 10:38 PM

Updated Record: 234-182-9

NCAAB
1H: 54-43-3
2H: 122-85-3

NBA
1H: 13-16
2H: 36-30-3
FG: 9-8

70kgman · 03-26-12, 08:05 PM

2H: Denver / Chicago Under 98.5

Cutler'sThumb · 03-26-12, 10:31 PM

Looks like you're getting the NBA dialed in 70.

70kgman · 03-27-12, 02:53 PM

If interested, these two NHL prop bets are solid in my opinion. Tampa with lots of injuries, and currently in rebuilding mode giving a lot of ice team to young guys who don't really belong in the NHL, especially on defense. It has shown in Tampa's recent play, they have AVERAGED 37.25 shots against the past 4 games. Tampa is also 29th in the NHL in goals allowed on the road. I expect The Lucic/Krecji/Seguin line to get a good dose of soft line match-ups tonight with Boston being at home and having last change, and a healthy dose of shots in general toward the Tampa net is a fair assumption.

Tyler Seguin Over 2.5 shots (-115)

Milan Lucic shots/points Over 2 (-120)

70kgman · 03-27-12, 06:57 PM

2H: Umass / Stanford Over 79

70kgman · 03-27-12, 10:43 PM

2H: LA Lakers / Golden State Over 97

70kgman · 03-28-12, 12:03 AM

Updated Record: 236-183-9

NCAAB
1H: 54-43-3
2H: 122-86-3

NBA
1H: 13-16
2H: 38-30-3
FG: 9-8

Dmoneytx · 03-28-12, 12:15 AM

Great call on the Lakers play!! It was my only bb tonight. Keep up the good work sir

Monitor-Tan · 03-28-12, 12:26 PM

hey 70k, gotta clear your inbox

70kgman · 03-28-12, 07:43 PM

2H: Indiana / New Jersey Under 98

70kgman · 03-28-12, 07:54 PM

May of posted that one kind of late. 2H seemed to start pretty soon after I posted. Sorry about that. It is difficult to be right on top of all of these the second they go to half-time.

70kgman · 03-28-12, 10:14 PM

2H: San Antonio / Sacramento Under 107.5

Dmoneytx · 03-28-12, 10:49 PM

What a crappy finish to the 3rd quarter!! 10 pts in less than 2 mins. We need some D!!!!

70kgman · 03-28-12, 11:23 PM

Had no chance, they COMBINED to shoot 63.2% in that 2nd half.

jazzmatazz23 · 03-29-12, 08:04 PM

Hopefully we get a couple good second halfs tonight!

Dmoneytx · 03-29-12, 08:46 PM

I appreciate your hard work, as always 70! I have stayed with you on almost every play. And I will continue to as long as you are posting picks. Just wanted to say Thank You again

70kgman · 03-30-12, 09:14 PM

2H: Sacramento / Utah Over 107

70kgman · 03-31-12, 07:34 PM

2H: Atlanta / Philadelphia Under 87.5

70kgman · 04-01-12, 06:08 PM

2H: Washington / Toronto Under 94.5

2H: Denver / Orlando Under 100

jazzmatazz23 · 04-01-12, 11:39 PM

Keep making the picks. With your model the odds are you are going start winning on a regular basis

70kgman · 04-01-12, 11:52 PM

Well, I hate to end on a sour note-losing a bunch of plays in a row, but I think it is time to accept I wont be beating NBA this season in any capacity and just call it a season. I thought I could still get the 2H plays to work, but clearly not. Just a weird inconsistent year in the NBA in every possible way that doesn't mesh well with math or trends. Baffling how I went from a 62% NBA capper last season to this using the same methods, but I guess it is what it is.

Disappointing season considering my record last season and my expectations, but I guess a profit is a profit. Hopefully some of you tailed the right plays at the right time and made some money.

Here are the final numbers:

Updated Record: 237-188-9 (55.8%)

NCAAB
1H: 54-43-3
2H: 122-86-3

NBA
1H: 13-16
2H: 39-35-3
FG: 9-8

Last two seasons combined: 430-306 (58.4%)