Filmoz's NCAA BB 2011-2012

[jameski999]

If anybody has seen my ass let it know I'm looking for it, lost it tonight.

[rb3b3]

We'll get em tomorrow boys. and BOL everyone.

what the fkkk is going on with these wacky games???????? i dont understand this filmoz! please enlighten me!!!! 3 nights in a row!!!! santa barba unlv game!!!! my huge bet last night on gtown!!!!!! and i just a made a play on 2h nevada under 76 and have it lose because the game was luckily sent into ot!!!!!!!!! arent games like this supposed to come like maybe 2-3x a season?????????? 3 crazy finishes 3 nights in a row?????????????? i think im going to take time off man, im up big because of that lucky bet, but i just cant take games like this. im sure you feel me because you had wash and you were jumping for joy when the game went to ot, just to lose the bet in ot! urghhhhh... and of course i lose 2 out of 3 of them, but only my 1 win was a fkn 5k hit!!!!! so ha fk you vegas! filmoz whats going on with these wacky games man?????????/ enlighten me plzzzzzzzzz

[thebigd1]

what the fkkk is going on with these wacky games???????? i dont understand this filmoz! please enlighten me!!!! 3 nights in a row!!!! santa barba unlv game!!!! my huge bet last night on gtown!!!!!! and i just a made a play on 2h nevada under 76 and have it lose because the game was luckily sent into ot!!!!!!!!! arent games like this supposed to come like maybe 2-3x a season?????????? 3 crazy finishes 3 nights in a row?????????????? i think im going to take time off man, im up big because of that lucky bet, but i just cant take games like this. im sure you feel me because you had wash and you were jumping for joy when the game went to ot, just to lose the bet in ot! urghhhhh... and of course i lose 2 out of 3 of them, but only my 1 win was a fkn 5k hit!!!!! so ha fk you vegas! filmoz whats going on with these wacky games man?????????/ enlighten me plzzzzzzzzz

check out ep36's 2H plays pretty solid dude. gl bruh!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Locked and loaded gentlemen. The contest selections have been submitted.

[SimonSayz]

Good morning Gents....another power packed day.

Off the top, I am leaning 1H on UMASS. As I said before, Towson is one of the worst teams in D1 and are 1-3 ATS this year. Their lone win came against another 0-3 team and in that case was not a play bc both teams suck. Umass should cover this at -11.5 (-115). The line will be -12 before noon today.

Gentlemen....I think I am playing too many plays so I am going to try and narrow my focus. Again, let's start with what I call the 1H Towson Fade. They again missed against UMass a few days back to run their first half streak to 1-4 overall.

I will ride with fading them again today....I don't care what the line is....my guess...it is George Mason 1H -9. GL

Line is already moving up on the game with the 1H to follow.

We really need to stop the bleeding today fellas....let's work together to kill it. My goal for today is +10x.

Have we been doing our Morning Prayer? This might be the issue....I am very superstitious.

[canepole]

lets get em today sure need help

[tvizzle]

im all-in literally on Memphis-15 vs Austin Peay.... 10xxx im done if i lose good luck to me

[leetreaper]

im all-in literally on Memphis-15 vs Austin Peay.... 10xxx im done if i lose good luck to me

[Filmoz]

To the gambling gods: We certainly felt your ultimate power yesterday, may today be blessed.

[Filmoz]

12/3/11

JMU +2 -102 3x

[Filmoz]

Michigan 1st Half (1st 10 Mins) -2.5 -115 2x
Michigan 1st Half -4.5 -115 2x
Michigan -8.5 -105 3x

[Filmoz]

Kentucky TT U79.5 -110 4x

[Filmoz]

Buffalo -6 -109 5x

[Filmoz]

what the fkkk is going on with these wacky games???????? i dont understand this filmoz! please enlighten me!!!! 3 nights in a row!!!! santa barba unlv game!!!! my huge bet last night on gtown!!!!!! and i just a made a play on 2h nevada under 76 and have it lose because the game was luckily sent into ot!!!!!!!!! arent games like this supposed to come like maybe 2-3x a season?????????? 3 crazy finishes 3 nights in a row?????????????? i think im going to take time off man, im up big because of that lucky bet, but i just cant take games like this. im sure you feel me because you had wash and you were jumping for joy when the game went to ot, just to lose the bet in ot! urghhhhh... and of course i lose 2 out of 3 of them, but only my 1 win was a fkn 5k hit!!!!! so ha fk you vegas! filmoz whats going on with these wacky games man?????????/ enlighten me plzzzzzzzzz

Just out of curiosity, how long have you been betting sports? I don't mean to offend or make assumptions, but your utter shock and surprise kind of gives me the feeling you are relatively new at it? Because these types of nights happen literally all the time. Just relax, don't do anything foolish with the money from your big win the other night! We are gonna be trucking all season long.

[Filmoz]

Also, some insight from me re variance:

Generally, the way games play out are going to fall into three categories -
(1) The easy cover - say you pick a team that is a +10 underdog, and they play well the whole game and maybe even end up winning straight up. This was an easy cover, and it indicates you were doing something right in your handicapping, as you were able to spot a line that ended up being way, way off. You sit back and enjoy the game and rarely have a stressful moment. The Columbia +8 play last night is an example, and there are many others throughout the thread.

(2) The wtf game - say you pick a team that is a -8 favorite. They end up getting dominated, never leading the entire game and end up losing straight up. This was a bad pick. You missed something in your handicapping that would have alerted you to this and caused to you either take the other side or lay off altogether. You turn off the game, pissed off, before the end of the first half because it is a lost cause. The Louisville TT play from last night is an example of this (although we almost lucked out and went into 2OT, but the fact that we would have needed 2OT to get there still means it was a bad play).

(3) The close game - these are the games that go back and forth all game, and whether you cover or not is decided by a lot of random variables in the end game. This was pretty much every other game last night, and they all went the wrong way except Florida (thank the gods for backdoor covers).

When you are handicapping well, you should be able to spot a lot of the (1) games and avoid most of the (2) games. But, even if you are handicapping well, bad variance comes into play when you get a disproportionate amount of the (3) games not going your way at the end. That is definitely what has been happening quite a bit lately, but we are gonna soldier on. It will all even out. We are still up well into the positive this season. BOL today everyone.

[RustedVegas]

Filmoz, I'm sorry if this is a stupid question and I shuold know the answer, but who is your avatar a picture of?

[SimonSayz]

Also, some insight from me re variance:

Generally, the way games play out are going to fall into three categories -
(1) The easy cover - say you pick a team that is a +10 underdog, and they play well the whole game and maybe even end up winning straight up. This was an easy cover, and it indicates you were doing something right in your handicapping, as you were able to spot a line that ended up being way, way off. You sit back and enjoy the game and rarely have a stressful moment. The Columbia +8 play last night is an example, and there are many others throughout the thread.

(2) The wtf game - say you pick a team that is a -8 favorite. They end up getting dominated, never leading the entire game and end up losing straight up. This was a bad pick. You missed something in your handicapping that would have alerted you to this and caused to you either take the other side or lay off altogether. You turn off the game, pissed off, before the end of the first half because it is a lost cause. The Louisville TT play from last night is an example of this (although we almost lucked out and went into 2OT, but the fact that we would have needed 2OT to get there still means it was a bad play).

(3) The close game - these are the games that go back and forth all game, and whether you cover or not is decided by a lot of random variables in the end game. This was pretty much every other game last night, and they all went the wrong way except Florida (thank the gods for backdoor covers).

When you are handicapping well, you should be able to spot a lot of the (1) games and avoid most of the (2) games. But, even if you are handicapping well, bad variance comes into play when you get a disproportionate amount of the (3) games not going your way at the end. That is definitely what has been happening quite a bit lately, but we are gonna soldier on. It will all even out. We are still up well into the positive this season. BOL today everyone.

What up Film?!

What book do you follow to take notice on line moves? I mean, when it comes to football, I typically follow Pinnacle b/c when lines move there, it has an effect on how I play the game. What have you found to be the best book for NCAA hoops?

Do you do NBA?

[allidoiswin89]

Filmoz, I'm sorry if this is a stupid question and I shuold know the answer, but who is your avatar a picture of?

You can find the answer in this thread....

Morning all, lets get it. I like a lot of college football games today. Trying to go 4 in a row for big bet of the night. today I have two bets equally as big.

Baylor -3
and Parlay
Oklahoma st. -3 and Under 71

Big comeback for you today OZ.

[Filmoz]

Big comeback for you today OZ.

We're gonna kill it buddy, BOL on your fb plays.

[SimonSayz]

You can find the answer in this thread....

Morning all, lets get it. I like a lot of college football games today. Trying to go 4 in a row for big bet of the night. today I have two bets equally as big.

Baylor -3
and Parlay
Oklahoma st. -3 and Under 71

Big comeback for you today OZ.

I like you energy and insight with your plays....I see a lot of points in that Baylor play and possibly a Baylor TT Over if my book offers it.

I locked in on Houston/SMU over 73.5 and am targeting a 3 Team ML Parlay with Houston/Wiscy/LSU (300 to win 240). I can't see any team losing here.

I like your parlay....Oklahoma can't score enough points to keep up which means the under and an OSU cover.

[allidoiswin89]

I actually like Texas/baylor under. Texas offense is just dreadful. If i do play it, I will be small on the under. But I agree with you that Baylors TT over could be interesting

[allidoiswin89]

alrighty a lot of bets in today. lets go gambling gods!

[allidoiswin89]

I hate Wisconsin basketball! Its over/unders are always so low and tempting. Their D has been amazing this year and they play such a slow style of basketball. Marquette is much like North Carolina tempo but North Carolina couldn't hit any shots against Wisconsin. North Carolina ended up around 43% and Wisconsin was at like 35% and the game was just under 120. If Marquette can shoot close to 50%, then its an easy over the 125....ughhhh it seems like an easy bet but you can never trust the D of WISCY.....any thoughts anyone?

[frostie]

hey oz my mich. half is -5.5 take it or no

[allidoiswin89]

Also, (sorry to clog up this thread) but anyone look at Pitt -1 at Rocky Top? Tennesee has lost a lot of close games against good teams under their first year head coach. So either they will rise up in this one or lose confidence in their coach. I like Pitt in this spot. I haven't placed any college bball bets yet for OZ's. Hopefully he just likes these plays so he can make them official!! haha

[allidoiswin89]

hey oz my mich. half is -5.5 take it or no

If I were you, I would buy the hook and get it to -5, -5 is a winner for OZ and a push for you, anything else over would be loss for both

[rb3b3]

Just out of curiosity, how long have you been betting sports? I don't mean to offend or make assumptions, but your utter shock and surprise kind of gives me the feeling you are relatively new at it? Because these types of nights happen literally all the time. Just relax, don't do anything foolish with the money from your big win the other night! We are gonna be trucking all season long.

No offense taken filmoz,, ive been betting on and off for 20 yrs now... I understand about the wacky plays, but i guess i just dont remember them halpening to me 3 days in a row..

[Filmoz]

No offense taken filmoz,, ive been betting on and off for 20 yrs now... I understand about the wacky plays, but i guess i just dont remember them halpening to me 3 days in a row..

Yeah, hoops is just crazy. I actually think NBA is even crazier, talk about volatility.

[Filmoz]

Purdue +5 -101 2x

[YOUNGBUCK]

Purdue +5 -101 2x

[destingator]

Myer Lansky

[Capybara]

Oops, okay, maybe I lay off the Purdue/Xavier game.

Pretty easy decision for me actually, since I'm DOWN TO PRACTICALLY NO FUKKIN UNITS ANYWAY.

'Mozer, I think I may make a special request today for that ever-so-rare Filmoz Parlay of the Day! Yes, I know it is neither endorsed nor recommended by management, but I'm down to so few units to play with at this point that I need a nice hit or I might as well pack up camp.

Actually, that question goes to all of Moz's Mashers: Whatcha got for a great parlay for today/tonight?

[shocktopme]

You look to be the man in college hoops!!!!!Be waitin for your next set of picks

This from Films first day posting and fukk yeah I was right!!!!!!!!

[frostie]

clooose cover on mich cashed first half and final good shit OZ

[allidoiswin89]

Great start oz!