CrimsonQueen's CBB 2011-2012

[CrimsonQueen]

Last year we did really well, crushing the Big East (documented in my thread from last year:
2010-2011 Big East bets Overall:
52-40-1 (56.52% ATS/Totals)
***Best Bets (2 Unit plays) 5-1 (83.33% ATS)***
Conference Season:
35-20 (63.64% ATS)

Lines are up for the first Big East game of the year...and the first play is already here.

There's a couple question marks about this game, but I always play against the opening lines, so we'll see how it goes. St. John's is in a rebuilding phase... They lost all 5 starters and their coach has been out since practice began from surgery. The team isn't playing under Lavin at the moment...and 3 of their new guys are ineligible due to academics.

St. John's wins by 5.

1 Unit
William & Mary +10

Good Luck!

[saints7011]

where you see the line at 10...

[CrimsonQueen]

The line opened at 10 on bookmaker. I got it on 5 dimes at +10 -110. Couldve got 10 at BetOnline too.
This is why I bet openers almost exclusively. It moved a full point within 30 minutes and moved another point over the next hour. Best you can get now is +8 looks like.

[CrimsonQueen]

Arizona +2.5 was the opener, got +2 when I went to confirm the +2.5, it had moved THAT quick, didn't think it'd move 2 more points since then so I didn't post before eating. So I'm past posting this line. I don't care if you have a problem with this, A, and B, I STILL would take Arizona at a PICK. Still think there's value in that line. All the way up to Zona -2.5 there's value, I'd say.

11/16/2011 - ONLINE at 02:45 PM [Ticket #: xxxxxxxx] STRAIGHT BET11/17/2011 @ 06:30 PM CBB[567] ARIZONA +2-110132.00120.00
1 Unit
Arizona +2

Good Luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

I honestly expected Arizona to open at -3, and I was planning on betting that. I couldn't believe when it opened at +2.5. Thought maybe they posted a bad line, reversing the +/-. It moved that fast for a reason. Zona is gonna teach these St. John's youngins how to play ball.

[10dollawinna]

good luck...followed you some last yr. will be checking in

[CrimsonQueen]

Hey 10dolla, I remember you from last season, good to see ya again.

[CrimsonQueen]

Zona is now at -2 across the board, which is what I said was gonna happen.
And, I STILL think there's value in that line. (Not nearly as much, obviously, but I thought they should've opened at -2/-3, and they should've listened to my thoughts!)

[CrimsonQueen]

Zona wins fairly easy. Of course it looked bad for a minute, but there was no way St. John's was going to keep up that intensity with a number of players about to foul out, and absolutely no depth. My notes before the game told me that St. John's can't guard the 3 to save their lives, and... well...Zona lit them up, 14/28 (50%). Would've liked to see Zona get inside on St. John's a little more; St. John's still managing to impress me with their ability to keep guys out of the paint, but I suppose when you leave the perimeter wide open, it's easy to clog up the middle with your WHOLE TEAM. If St. John's gets any of the those 3 ineligible guys back, I expect them to take on a new level. But 7 young guys is not going to be enough once they hit the physical Big East.

[CrimsonQueen]

Usually I get on openers, but yesterday was the one day I missed openers.

Georgetown opened at +1, and it's now at -1 / -1.5. I'm mad I missed the openers cuz I really like Gtown +1. I liked Gtown +6 against Kansas, but couldn't pull the trigger. I think Gtown doesn't want to come away from Hawaii without a win against a ranked team, and I think this is their chance to do it, against an exhausted, double OT played yesterday, Memphis team. The stats stack up in Gtown's favor, too, and I think they should win this by a couple on average, and I really like Gtown to out rebound Memphis today. Tip off in < 2 hours, get on it.

1 Unit
Georgetown -1(-105)

Good luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

Adding another play:

1 Unit
Georgetown -1 (-105)
Richmond +1.5 (-108)

Good luck!

[EPote14]

gl queen
I'm witcha

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Georgetown -1 (-105) - WIN
Richmond +1.5 (-108) - WIN



NCAAB 2011-2012
3-1(75%)

[EPote14]

nice job

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Northeastern +10(-105)

Good luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Northeastern +10(-105) - WIN

Covered by 24.
NCAAB 2011-2012
4-1(80%)

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Pittsburgh -6

Good luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

Today's Sagarin ratings put Duquesne AHEAD of Pittsburgh. I don't buy that... but I do think Pitt is overrated in kenpoms ratings. However, I still like the matchup.

[Coach Potato]

good luck

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Pittsburgh -6 - WIN

Would love to know what everyone was smoking that brought that line to close at -4.5...??

NCAAB 2011-2012
5-1(83.3%)

[Club]

Nice job, CQ, picking up where you left off last season.

[CrimsonQueen]

Thanks Club. Playing it really safe this year early on. Just looking for the easy winners this early on. Later we'll go for anything that looks 55% or better.

[Club]

That's how Bobby would do it, CQ.

"I don't believe in psychology, I believe in good moves." Bobby Fischer

[CrimsonQueen]

Well said!

Probably no bets tonight...looking forward to tonights matchups though. St. Johns vs. Kentucky and Gtown vs. Alabama should both be good. St. Johns will probably get destroyed, but if they knock down their FTs, which they aren't good at, they could keep it interesting for a bit.

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Florida +6

Good luck!

[Club]

Good luck, CQ

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Florida +6 - WIN

Guy in the editing booth is probably on people's hit list now. Cut away from the final shot of the game that flipped who covered the spread. Oops.
NCAAB 2011-2012
6-1(85.7%)

[Club]

Just like you drew it up. I can't believe they didn't show that last shot. Biggest shot of the game, for some of us.

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Marquette -6

Good luck!

Last two bets, lines moved against me, but I'm still averaging +0.93 points beating the closing line per game. And I bring it up, because I fully anticipate the line moving in Marquette's favor here. Maybe not by much, but I'll be shocked if the line closes at 6.

[Club]

Good luck, GQ.

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
Marquette -6 - Loss

Otule gets hurt 2 minutes into the game and I turned it off, knowing they weren't gonna cover. Weak. On to the next one.

NCAAB 2011-2012
6-2(75%)

One play for tonight.

1 Unit
DePaul -5(-105)

Good luck!

[CrimsonQueen]

1 Unit
DePaul -5(-105) - WIN

NCAAB 2011-2012
7-2(77.8%)

[Club]

Nice job, easy winner.

[kobstopa]

it was a good call with DePaul, good job

[CrimsonQueen]

Went to bet Villanova at +5.5...and literally the second I clicked confirm, the line jumped to +4.5, then down to +4...
I like Nova's chances to win this one outright, so I took a different, more profitable path long-term, imo...
(FYI, I won't be counting this in with the ATS record, as it's obviously not going to hit ~55/45...as it's a ML. It'll be kept separate, though, win or lose.)

.55 Units TO WIN 1 Unit
Villanova +180

Good luck!