SDSU -1. 4th posted play of the year. (3-0 ytd)

DennisT · 03-24-11, 03:35 PM

Very good information. Will go with you od SDSU to win. Luck to us!

ronjon619 · 03-24-11, 04:25 PM

I like it good luck

kbr420 · 03-24-11, 04:31 PM

i am so torn on this game...i was initially leaning SDSU @ home basically, and looking at the overall body of work and experience i then leaned with Calhoun and put in just a small 1 unit play on UConn (also riding how good they have played over the last 7 games). the more i think about it the more easy it is to play UConn, so i put in a SDSU bet to juice out... FML!! GL bigD

agharah1 · 03-24-11, 04:32 PM

SDSU has played only *ONE* major conference team all year: Cal whom they beat on the road by 20. People talk about SDSU's defense, but what about UConn's rebounding? And let's not forget SDSU is prone to terrible jump shooting games. There's reason they had to scrape past Temple.

That being said, I'm stunned how quickly the line moved from UConn -1.5 to SDSU -1. I don't think I'm takin this game tonight.

btd · 03-24-11, 04:35 PM

Being from Conn and Uconn fan, I'm leaning a little bit towards SD, I also love Fla.

D3 Mighty Ducks · 03-24-11, 04:35 PM

I'm on SDSU ML +100, good write up

ShogunRua · 03-24-11, 04:39 PM

On SDSU as well. Good luck.

alexn · 03-24-11, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by btd

Being from Conn and Uconn fan, I'm leaning a little bit towards SD, I also love Fla.

Thanks for giving your unbiased opinion. I may be an SDSU alum but I always admit when I think we will lose and tonight is NOT one of those times.

BigDofBA · 03-24-11, 05:00 PM

Good luck to everyone regardless of your side.

BigDofBA · 03-24-11, 05:02 PM

Thanks for the input guys. SDSU has been prone to bad shooting games but I feel like they will play well tonight close to home.

I don't believe in locks, Uconn could definitely win behind Kemba, however, I feel like my money is on the right side. That's all you can really do.

As for SDSU only playing one team from a major conference, that's irrelevant IMO. Butler, VCU, BYU, Richmond, ect. aren't from major conferences.

The Big East has already lost to Morehead St., VCU, Butler, and Gonzaga this tourney. Tonight we add SDSU to that list.

HR Paperstacks · 03-24-11, 05:12 PM

Is SDSU still the right side at -2?

bigALbones50 · 03-24-11, 05:12 PM

leaning SDSU too, but for what it is worth, UConn 3-0 SU & ATS maui tourny, 5-0 SU & ATS big east tourny, 2-0 SU & ATS big dance, 10-0......

BigDofBA · 03-24-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by bigALbones50

leaning SDSU too, but for what it is worth, UConn 3-0 SU & ATS maui tourny, 5-0 SU & ATS big east tourny, 2-0 SU & ATS big dance, 10-0......

And those big bad Big East teams have gotten knocked out of the tourney by Morehead St., George Mason, VCU, Butler, and Gonzaga.

SDSU is a better team than Uconn. I'm just worried about how they will perform if the game is tight in the final seconds. I would then give the edge to Uconn. Hopefully it doesn't come down to that.

bigALbones50 · 03-24-11, 05:20 PM

i know, i think uconn's streak ends 2nite

pittmatt80 · 03-24-11, 05:25 PM

Great analysis I like this one as well. Good Luck

kufan11 · 03-24-11, 05:31 PM

This game is anything but a lock, its a toss up, i kinda like uconn, but i can see SDSU playing decent D on walker and making it close, a much better sure bet is Florida took jimmer to double OT last year, this year they have even better players and the addition of patrick young down low, Florida has 4 post players better than any post player that BYU has, and BYU only has 1 good player, and he will have problems with the speed of erving walker who will frustrate him all night, and if that doesnt work, then kenny boyton and his size will shut him down, either way florida rolls.

BigDofBA · 03-24-11, 05:42 PM

You're right. This game definitely isn't a lock.

I really like SDSU in this spot but I'm not going to be shocked if Kemba and Uconn advance.

My wager is about as big as I go but it's still less than 10% of my bankroll so if SDSU shoots like crap or chokes in the final seconds, I can still recover.

Prop Bet Master · 03-24-11, 05:47 PM

I believe San Diego State will win, but I'm not playing this game. Good luck!

alexn · 03-24-11, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by bigALbones50

leaning SDSU too, but for what it is worth, UConn 3-0 SU & ATS maui tourny, 5-0 SU & ATS big east tourny, 2-0 SU & ATS big dance, 10-0......

For what its worth SDSU is also undefeated in tournament games. This game will be more of an away game for UCONN than neutral court. That's the difference maker.

hanziman · 03-24-11, 06:08 PM

scared to say i think SDSU will win too.

McBa1n · 03-24-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

I only post a thread about a game if I feel really strong about it.

Here are links to my other posted plays that have all won including a 11-17 Seton Hall team over a top 15 St. Johns team.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/950127-washington-2-first-posted-play-year.html

Washington as a road dog against Arizona.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/958115-2nd-posted-play-year-1-0-ytd.html

Penn State as a road dog against Northwestern.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/969041-seton-hall-3-3rd-posted-play-year-2-0-ytd.html

Seton Hall as a home dog to a hot St. Johns team that the public loved at the time.

Anyway, I was going to take SDSU +1.5 earlier in the day but I waited and ran a few errands. Now they are favored. This only confirms my thinking.

Uconn was pounded by the public early as the lined moved to Uconn -1.5 and then the sharps pounded SDSU this afternoon. I believe 65% of the public is on Uconn but the line keeps moving in SDSU's favor.

That being said, line movement isn't the only reason I like SDSU.

-They rebound and play better defense than Uconn.
-The game is being played in Southern California.
-Uconn is getting way too much hype
-The Big East was overrated and it will show tonight.

Kemba is a stud but I believe the Aztecs will frustrate him tonight. Even if Kemba has an off night which he is due for, the Aztecs win. I'm on the Aztecs. Good luck to all. I know I will lose one of these plays eventually but hopefully the streak continues!

If you watch Big East ball, SH was on a TEAR and was clearly the play in that game. The Johnnies always play to the level of their competition. That was an EZ one. GOOD pick, though. Glad you also cashed.

Hope you're wrong tonight, but I've seen a dickload more chinks in SDS than in UConn in any sort of tournament play in the past couple of weeks. UConn starts slow, that's their only fault. After you get to the sweet 16 in the tourney, the better team usually wins... SDS is really good, but UConn is way more talented as a team.

STAY STRONG · 03-24-11, 06:14 PM

this is going to be a great game to watch. lets go sdsu!

McBa1n · 03-24-11, 08:43 PM

Hey, sun shines on a dog's arse now and again. It'l be awesome fading me from here on out in ANYTHING I wager on.
I DO believe, though, that whilst the game was shite and neither team played their game - when you're f'd and out of it, you count on your best player. Kemba is incredibly good if he's intelligent.

BigDofBA · 03-24-11, 08:44 PM

Recap.

-SDSU got outcoached but I knew this might happen.
-SDSU missed a ton of free throws. They haven't been a great FT shooting team all year but less than 50% is pathetic.
-SDSU panicked in the final minute. Why was Leonard shooting a 3 when SDSU was down 1 late? He misses, Uconn hits a 3 and the whole complexion of the game changes.

SDSU was up 4 or 5 early and Leonard got a Technical. Uconn went on a run.

SDSU was up 4 midway through the second half. SDSU gets hit with another technical, Uconn goes on another run.

Those were two huge changes in momentum.

SDSU was right there but missed two many open shots and let Kimba go off. Congrats Uconn backers.

3-1 on posted plays.