NCAA Futures / Where the value lies: A statistical inquery
**Sorry for the repost, this one is CORRECT!**
Attached you'll find a spreadsheet where I broke down the Log5 statistical analysis from this article (by Ken Pomeroy) and I created true Decimal odds based on it for both future bets on Final Four and Championship odds. Then I broke down the offered odds from Bookmaker and Bodog and found all of the lines with ACTUAL STATISTICAL value.
Anyone betting futures for real will understand that there is a TON of juice on future bets and they are generally sucker bets. However, this Log5 breakdown actually contains 8 bets that MAY have value.
Lastly, I UNDERSTAND that the Log5 analysis is NOT 100% accurate and thusly calling the odds for a team to make the final four or to win the championship the "TRUE odds" is very misleading. HOWEVER... What this spreadsheet will allow you to do is have a VERY REAL jumping off point, one which you can then use to handicap a team in your own way and find extra value on a team that may be CLOSE to having real value as is, and will steer you away from betting a long shot that you THINK you are getting value on, but really you may not be.
** This is an updated version... Something happened in transition last time. I don't use Decimal Odds frequently (or ever) so that threw me off by 1 on every column accidentally.**
Good Luck!
Attached you'll find a spreadsheet where I broke down the Log5 statistical analysis from this article (by Ken Pomeroy) and I created true Decimal odds based on it for both future bets on Final Four and Championship odds. Then I broke down the offered odds from Bookmaker and Bodog and found all of the lines with ACTUAL STATISTICAL value.
Anyone betting futures for real will understand that there is a TON of juice on future bets and they are generally sucker bets. However, this Log5 breakdown actually contains 8 bets that MAY have value.
Lastly, I UNDERSTAND that the Log5 analysis is NOT 100% accurate and thusly calling the odds for a team to make the final four or to win the championship the "TRUE odds" is very misleading. HOWEVER... What this spreadsheet will allow you to do is have a VERY REAL jumping off point, one which you can then use to handicap a team in your own way and find extra value on a team that may be CLOSE to having real value as is, and will steer you away from betting a long shot that you THINK you are getting value on, but really you may not be.
** This is an updated version... Something happened in transition last time. I don't use Decimal Odds frequently (or ever) so that threw me off by 1 on every column accidentally.**
Good Luck!
I have no time to add their odds in too, but feel free to do so yourself and find more value on futures!