Penn State

Romanov · 03-13-11, 10:50 AM

fukk the cover! MONEYLINE or nothing man!

linedrivr · 03-13-11, 10:53 AM

win or lose, Ohio State has a #1 seed locked up. What is the motivation to keep their foot on the pedal the entire game. You saw what happened the last couple minutes in yesterdays game with Michigan. Backdoor cover.

I agree w Romanov, take a shot on the ML.

Romanov · 03-13-11, 10:56 AM

haha i am NOT putting any money on penn st.

I was half-kidding. The moneyline is a dollar or so short for me

lowflyingduc · 03-13-11, 10:56 AM

That is called a "square bet" bro. Doesn't take away that playing Ohio State is an independent event and others will want to bet on Penn based on what you said too and not based on the number like the sharps do. Thank God people bet on what they thought they saw and streaks still so others can get +EV playing the other side.

Not saying they can't cover but the analysis and reason for playing Penn is a square logic. No offense and best of luck.

Romanov · 03-13-11, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by lowflyingduc

That is called a "square bet" bro. Doesn't take away that playing Ohio State is an independent event and others will want to bet on Penn based on what you said too and not based on the number like the sharps do. Thank God people bet on what they thought they saw and streaks still so others can get +EV playing the other side. Not saying they can't cover but the analysis and reason for playing Penn is a square logic. No offense and best of luck.

Exactly! This game has bad value on both sides though, moneyline wise. I haven't done any math with the spread

linedrivr · 03-13-11, 11:00 AM

you can get +515 @ 5Dimes and +518 @ Pinny. It might be worth a quarter or half unit play.

just used the calc to see the value line should be +880. I see where you would pass on this one.

TheTruth5 · 03-13-11, 11:00 AM

ik that but there's some other reasons as well. talor battle is one of the top performers in the big ten and he has yet to make the big dance.. this is his senior year and i think hell have his team motivated today

Romanov · 03-13-11, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by linedrivr

you can get +515 @ 5Dimes and +518 @ Pinny. It might be worth a quarter or half unit play.

Do you really think penn state wins this thing 16% of the time? That is what it would take for a +518 to be profitable

IAMWINNER · 03-13-11, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

Do you really think penn state wins this thing 16% of the time? That is what it would take for a +518 to be profitable

Do they cover the 10.5 or 11 if I buy the .5

Romanov · 03-13-11, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by IAMWINNER

Do they cover the 10.5 or 11 if I buy the .5

no idea. When this line goes back down to 10 (which it probably will) I would buy the line down to Ohio St -7 for -170. That would have positive expected value

edit: im only betting props in this game, so anything i say I am NOT backing up with money.

linedrivr · 03-13-11, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

Do you really think penn state wins this thing 16% of the time? That is what it would take for a +518 to be profitable

no and agreed. there is no value in the ML @ +515 / +518

lowflyingduc · 03-13-11, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by IAMWINNER

Do they cover the 10.5 or 11 if I buy the .5

If you are even thinking of betting Penn (dog), wait until close to the start of game, high probability the line will move in your favor and you can save jing on the hook. This happens at fairly high percentages. The only problem in this situation is that you have so many squares looking at Penn based on streaks to balance the sharps so it may stay.

IAMWINNER · 03-13-11, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

no idea. When this line goes back down to 10 (which it probably will) I would buy the line down to Ohio St -7 for -170. That would have positive expected value edit: im only betting props in this game, so anything i say I am NOT backing up with money.

What about the Florida game, any value, line has reversed to -1.5

pokerpro44 · 03-13-11, 11:15 AM

i am taking the points.gl.

DaColts · 03-13-11, 11:16 AM

I'm all in on OSU to cover and wrap this tittle game up to and to the trophy case just need one more after this

lowflyingduc · 03-13-11, 11:16 AM

Matchbook still has Penn at +9.5

Grosshhit · 03-13-11, 11:22 AM

i dont know man im liking the Bucks to cover here. I think this could easily be a blowout.

meader99 · 03-13-11, 11:35 AM

I like PSU + the 10. Of course that means OSU wins by at least a dozen.

gtboy · 03-13-11, 12:28 PM

i am taking OHS to win big here. gl all