Duke and Kansas

[gtboy]

anyone seeing either of these 2 teams losing today. i am thinking to parlay the ml. thoughs

[Ice House]

no way in hell they lose! Add Michigan State as well this a must win home game for them vs Iowa.

[Romanov]

They probably don't but that is the thing. If you bet this parlay 1000 times, you would lose money in the long run. Try your luck today

[agharah1]

Duke on Senior Night for Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler against a marginal bubble team like Clemson = 100% chance of victory.

[DaColts]

total agree here dont see any team metioned here losing today

[HoulihansTX]

Yea this should pay out -111000000000

[PaperTrail07]

Big ml plays today---you have loot then youll make loot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ice House]

Someone tell me why I shouldn't bet this 3 team ML Parlay

Pitt ML for game
Duke ML 1st Half
Kansas ML 1st Half

$1100 to win $806

Any chance Clemson or Texas A&M goes into half time with the lead?

[Ice House]

I mean if you are ever going to do a ML parlay are these not the teams you can trust?

[Rbyrne]

no way clemson has the lead at halftime....Duke -7 1st half...get it

[Rbyrne]

this is the perfect spot to play Duke....when they are coming off a loss they always play much better the following game and one of clemsons better players stitt has strep so he is questionable so if he doesnt play then thats even better for duke

[Romanov]

I mean if you are ever going to do a ML parlay are these not the teams you can trust?

Its not about trust. It is about your risk and your reward.

If your ML parlay pays $806 for your $1100 wager, you should only bet this if you think this hits 58% of the time.

The odds say otherwise.

Pitt's ML says Pitt wins their game 83.67% of the time
KU's 1h ML says KU has a halftime lead 79.55% of the time
Dukes 1h ML says Duke has a halftime lead 77.4% of the time

Now, do the math.

Multiplying all three together, we see that Pinnacle (where these odds came from) believes this parlay will only hit 51.52% of the time (I even rounded up for ya!)

So, you need to hit 57.71%. 51.52% isn't gonna cut it

[Romanov]

Your expected loss for 10000 $1100 bets:

10000*.5152 = 5152
5152*806 = sum won over 10000 bets = $4152512

10000*(1-.5152) = 4848
4848*1100 = sum lost over 10000 bets = $5332800

So over 10000 bets you lose 5332800-4152512 = $-1180288

Or, in this one bet you can expect to lose $118.

[Romanov]

tonight you may very well hit, seeing as its more likely than not that you do, but over the long run you will lose $$$

[Romanov]

you get much better value putting your $1100 on a team like North Carolina ML or Iowa St ML

[Ice House]

oh well hopefully everyone will have good luck tonight!

[Soon2BRich]

ill be playing richmond v crappy st josephs

[mart59a]

Play them...they will not lose. Also like Mich st as per Ice House. GL!

[the12thman]

this Ag fan says lay the points for KU in the first half

[Dutch]

ML parlays can be a money maker if you pick and choose your spots. Filter out rivalry games, tough home teams etc.

[BiffTFinancial]

i think i'm gonna be knuckle-deep in the KU over.

[Ice House]

woooo hooo

[Ice House]

I needed that win!

[Jive]

Congratulations on your win last night!