I have a pretty good feel for what line will be on most games, and I feel I know most of the things odds makers look at when coming out with a line... What I can't understand is what they look at in those special trap games... This Miami Ohio game, I had Miami Ohi -4.5 possibly -5 and that was being generous, yet somehow they opened this line up at -8... I took Miami Ohio and its far from over but for now they are dominating, which isn't a surprise but its how they are dominating... Guy Orlando Williams who really isn't that good is goiing nuts... So I have to come to the conclusion that oddsmakers somehow knew that this guy was going to go off today... HOW DID THEY KNOW? HOW?
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he's going nuts as i speakComment -
These oddsmakers are sharp as hell sometimes when it's dead on by a point or half a point. But if u have that skill to come up with lines you should kill the sportsbook when you disagree with them. Gl bro.Comment -
Vegas is not stupid my man the line was -8 are you serious should have never been -8 and that's y I jumped on this game they knew everyone would bet bowling but there is a lot of game left so let's see how it ends n hope we get a win outta itComment -
Now you have your answer. Anyone bought in early at +8 won, and anyone bought in late loses. The book get the juice. Your number of +6 is closer to the truth. There is nothing special about it.Comment -
Obviously you didn't read that i'm on Miami Ohio. -8 is extremely high, I know Vegas isn't stupid that isn't the purpose of this thread the purpose was to see if any former odds makers had some good info for me.. .About what they look at from individual players to come up with a line for this game... A virtually none factor all year dropped 30 points in this game... That is only reason they covered... Some very smart odds makers had an idea that something like this might happen in this game... My question is how... Like did this kid get an A on his big final to give him confidence, did they tweak his jumper a little bit in practice... Something.. I knew that odds of me getting any quality info from this were slim to none but i took a shot.Comment -
I'm not an oddsmaker, but I read a while back - and I believe this to be true - that those who set the lines have a database of every player on every team, and they are able to pretty much use their statistical formulas to determine how a player matches up to an opponent, a system, etc. This info was provided by a former oddsmaker, and if I can find the link to the article I'll PM you or post it here.Comment -
Yes PSABB you are right.... I'm not so much interested in how the come up with lines I can give you list for basic games.
Matchups
Records
Trends
Home Away
Avg Point Per off
Avg. Ponints Per D
Situation
Win Loss Streak
Cover vs. Non-Cover
RPI
Injuries
ETC.... I understand these components and as I said with 80% of games on the board, I will be withing 1.5 points of the spread... I'm interested in the games where the line is off, some will call them Shady lines trap games whatever... Many times game is mislabeled as a trap because gamblers fail to recognize some situations that went into making the line.
As I said I had Miami Ohio -4.5 maybe -5 for the line to open up at -8 they knew something else in this game, other then just the superficial stats... The last time they palyed Miami 0 was -1 and lost by double digits... So we make standard adjust for home court which is 2 points to Neautral and then another 2 to go home so that would put Miami O -5... Now that is with them not losing by double digits... But everygame is different so ididn't even factor that in.... So -5 as I said would be generous... Yet opens -8, they knew something considering an unknown starts off 8-8 from the field and drops 30 points... Without him shooting out of his mind its a blowout the other way.Comment -
Your absolutely right chunk... THis is closer to the answer I'm looking for..... I know about Variance... But in some of these games its a little more then just that.Comment -
IF you check out thread Diary of Mad Gambler thread, you will see I'm far from new at this... I've used every theory every system, even created about 5 of my own that hit 70% for prolonged periods of time... I was just looking to see if any Oddsmakers could give me a clue about where some of this extra inside info comes from... Is it from the local team reporteers from trainers for the team, and stuff like that.Comment -
Ya, I've been around for a while to. I just think that you may be trying to read a little too much into this. Not that I'm a genius, but I had it capped at 7 or 8 with slight adjustment for Miami thin at guard, seemed about right to me.Comment -
Tru you were a little shaper then I on that game then... FOrget this game but you know the type of games I'm talking about KSU against KU the other week. Is a good one.Comment -
Happens to me all of the time. I dig for an explanation and usually come up empty. Btw, I'm not a big fan of systems, seems to me that they eventually fade to losing % long term. You find this to be true?Comment
