Alright did another thread a few days ago on a project I've been working on to make 2nd half picks. Wanted one place to keep them all and track for the rest of the season. Not suggesting anyone follow or fade. For anyone curious, I base these plays on a points per possession type thing + the 1st half stats. Ridicule. Congratulate. Do whatever feels good. 1st play coming up for better or for worse.
-
-
2.22.11
Mississippi-South Carolina Over 76.5 [-110]
Comment -
Good luckComment -
Thanks. Damn thing went up another half point before I could get it in. 76.5.Comment -
I was lucky 75' - let's get it easy.Comment -
Indiana State-Northern Iowa Under 69 [-110]Comment -
Thanks and nice call on the NI game, I took the over 125' for the game - hope we both win.Comment -
You got a total for Louisville 2nd halfComment -
Tennessee-Vanderbilt Under 74 [-110]Comment -
TCU-UTAH OVER 69 [-110]
Wouldn't advise following this one. Testing out a theory on this, so it may lose big.Comment -
Was already on it - GLComment -
Okay that theory did not hold water nor did it in the others I looked at this evening in the end. Should be able to adjust and do better.Comment -
Still think it was a good playComment -
Record Tracker: 2-2 [-0.20]
Well I'm not going to look too deep for things now at this point. I think from working on this for about three weeks that I've tested out some different things that will hopefully yield some positive results.
I'll explain a little bit of what I am looking at for anyone who cares, just because I'm bored right now and I think if you're going to follow or fade someone - you oughta have an idea of how they pick.
* Get the number of possessions for the first half. Doing this is from a formula outlined on other sites. Pretty simple: Add Total FGAs + Turnovers. Then subtract offensive rebounds. Then add FT attempts which is multiplied by .0475.
*Look at how the total points scored in the half compare to the number of possessions. Looking right away for ones with biggest differentials either where many more points were scored compared to possessions or way less points scored compared to possessions.
*Note field goal percentages of both teams. I try to stay clear of games where both teams are hitting an unrealistic rate either too high or too low at the same time. These are harder to predict to me vs. games where teams are scoring at a more realistic rate compared to their normal output. Also note the tempo both teams prefer - this can be found readily at kenpom.com.
*Look at the 2nd half number. Measure this up against the points vs. possessions from the 1st half. Here is an example and which way I would go with a bet.
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
*1st half had 58 points. Possessions totaled 64.
*2nd half total was 74
*Six point differential UNDER the number of possessions and points scored, so based on that in the 2nd half with a total of 74 and possessions numbering ten less than the number - UNDER was the play.
So there's some insight into this for whatever it's worth.
Comment -
2.23.11
Miami-Boston College Under 74 [-110]
Comment -
Too many fouls in this one. Gonna lose.Comment -
Colorado State-BYU Over 80 [-110]Comment -
UNLV-New Mexico Over 72 [-110]
Comment -
Record Tracker: 2-3-1 [-1.30]
Unlucky in the BYU game, it finished on 80. Jimmer missed a FT and Colorado State didn't foul after turning it over with still about :20 left and down by 8. Lots of coaches would have continued to foul. Oh well, better than a loss.
Comment -
Air Force-Wyoming Under 67 [-110]Comment -
over is being hit.. its at 68 now EPComment -
Record Tracker: 3-4-1 [-1.40]
Yeah unfortunate day yesterday. Last game both teams came out and shot well for the 1st five minutes - think there were 20-23 points in that stretch. Pretty much killed it although it wasn't decided until inside the last minute. Will go again today.
Comment -
2.24.11
Green Bay-Youngstown State Under 75 [-110]
Comment -
These fukking Unders are getting boned in the last minute almost every game. Ick. 20 points in the last two minutes and it missed by 3.Comment -
UALR-South Alabama Over 74 [-110]Comment -
California-Oregon Over 77 [-110]Comment -
Record Tracker: 4-5-1 [-1.50]
Split the first two.
Comment -
with you on cal over, i'm also on oregon st under 73....Comment -
And of course when I take an over, I don't get 20 points in 2 minutes. Fukkin sheet.Comment -
UC-Davis/UC-Irvine Under 80 [-110]Comment -
Absolutely no luck. OT in the Davis game fukks the under. Sheesh. Hoops Gods not diggin meComment -
bullshit overtime....GOD I HATE OT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment
