Thought I would make this topic before I do the SBR show on Tuesday, I just want to get some of this out in the open before.
When you think about betting football, most sharps would agree that the key battle is the line of scrimmage/how good the o-lines and d-lines are. In basketball, the LOS is under the basket in the REBOUNDING battle. The most successful basketball teams will be great or at least solid rebounding teams. Barring them being terrible in another aspect of the game, these teams will generally be very good. When you outrebound a team by 4 offensive boards, you are essentially getting 4 more shot attempts than the opposition which will lead to at least 2 or 3 points, more if the team is efficient offensively. Imagine what happens when a team wins the battle by 8 or 9 boards. Usually, each offensive rebound is worth at least a point. Most teams can't withstand giving away close to 10 points just on rebounding.
When you evaluate teams, I hope you look very closely at the rebounding aspect. I would NEVER bet on a team that I think could get outrebounded by a large margin. I usually like to make my bets +REB which means if my team doesn't win the rebounding game, then my bet was a bad one. Teams may not have big guys who have great back-to-the-basket post moves but they can more than survive if those guys can rebound the ball at a high percentage.
When you think about betting football, most sharps would agree that the key battle is the line of scrimmage/how good the o-lines and d-lines are. In basketball, the LOS is under the basket in the REBOUNDING battle. The most successful basketball teams will be great or at least solid rebounding teams. Barring them being terrible in another aspect of the game, these teams will generally be very good. When you outrebound a team by 4 offensive boards, you are essentially getting 4 more shot attempts than the opposition which will lead to at least 2 or 3 points, more if the team is efficient offensively. Imagine what happens when a team wins the battle by 8 or 9 boards. Usually, each offensive rebound is worth at least a point. Most teams can't withstand giving away close to 10 points just on rebounding.
When you evaluate teams, I hope you look very closely at the rebounding aspect. I would NEVER bet on a team that I think could get outrebounded by a large margin. I usually like to make my bets +REB which means if my team doesn't win the rebounding game, then my bet was a bad one. Teams may not have big guys who have great back-to-the-basket post moves but they can more than survive if those guys can rebound the ball at a high percentage.
