Testing Out a System: Week 2- 57% Last Week

[AbeFroman]

Hey everyone!

Results of last week's test run is here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/921895-testing-out-new-system-starting-tonight.html

System hit at 57 percent overall last week, with Tier A hitting at 48 percent and Tier B 66 percent!

Here we go for week number 2!

Tier A:
Pittsburgh +1.5
The Citadel +1.5
Tier B:
Detroit +2.5
Jacksonville State +1.5

[AbeFroman]

Updated for 2/7/11
Tier A:
Pittsburgh +1.5
The Citadel +1.5
Tier B:
Detroit +2.5
Jacksonville State +1.5
Alabama State +1.5

BOL!

[AbeFroman]

Last Week:
Tier A: 12-13 48%
Tier B: 18-9-1 66 %
Season:
Tier A:
95-84 54%
Tier B:
55-52-1 51%

Results from February 7th:
Tier A:
Pittsburgh +1.5
The Citadel +1.5
Tier B:
Detroit +2.5
Jacksonville State +1.5
Alabama State +1.5

Tier A:
1-1
Tier B:
3-0

Season:
Tier A
96-85
Tier B:
58-52-1

[Lets go out]

well done abe...We have agreed on many plays lately....Keep up the good work

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Nice work, I'll definitely check back on your plays tomorrow. Will you be making a new thread or keeping it in here?

[AbeFroman]

I'll be keeping it here and most likely starting a new one for the sake of keeping it easily accessible for past results!

Glad we have been on the same page, hope you guys stick around!

[AbeFroman]

Tonight's Plays
Tier A:
None
Tier B:
Drake +1.5

The one play tonight, Creighton at Drake, is an interesting one. It's a contest between a team who started well but is now struggling (Creighton) and a team that has been on a recent upswing, winning two in a row (Drake).

Drake is on a hot streak right now, but with these mid-major games, the favorites tend to hit a lot. Should be interesting, BOL to all!

Northern Iowa and Evansville is currently at pick, and while I don't expect it to move off of that, I will keep an eye on it just in case. As of now though, it's a no play.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Love the play, I'm already on it. I think you should consider a thread just for this system. That way I can bookmark it, and keep monitoring your system. Also, you'll create a following and help make others better at betting.

[ebbearsfb1]

is tier a? home dog public?


tier b non public home dog


love the plays i didnt play jacksonville st cause by the time i go to it they were a favorite.. lets go drake

[LockPickMaster]

Creighton just beat Evansville, not sure you call that struggling.

[AbeFroman]

Love the play, I'm already on it. I think you should consider a thread just for this system. That way I can bookmark it, and keep monitoring your system. Also, you'll create a following and help make others better at betting.

Hi CS, thanks for stopping back in!

I will make next weeks thread the straight thread for the remainder of the season? Sound good?

[ebbearsfb1]

[LockPickMaster]

Creighton sucks, why did I bet those losers. Abe, is that it for tonight.

[AbeFroman]

Creighton just beat Evansville, not sure you call that struggling.

Evansville is fourth in the MVC, and the game was at Creighton, but overall Creighton is 2-3 in their last five, 2-4 in their last six if you count this evenings loss, and 4-7 in their last ten. They don't seem to be playing like the same team that ran off six straight between December 11th and January 1th.

Just my .02. Thanks for stopping by, LPM! Hope ya keep contributing. One nice thing about this thread being fairly unnoticed is that the conversation has been positive. Let's keep it that way!

[AbeFroman]

Tonight's Plays
Tier A:
None
Tier B:
Drake +1.5

Week:
Tier A: 1-1
Tier B: 4-0

Season:
Tier A:
1-1
Tier B:
3-0

Season:
Tier A
96-85
Tier B:
59-52-1

[AbeFroman]

Not going to include it as I have yet to track lines that move, but for those who may be interested, Evansville dropped to +1.5, and proceeded to pick up a 72-60 victory over Northern Iowa.

Looking over tomorrow's lines, will post the early plays soon and redefine tomorrow afternoon.

[AbeFroman]

Early Look at 2-9-11 Plays:
Tier A:
Northwestern +3
Memphis +2.5
UAB +3
Ball State +1
Dayton +2
Arkansas +1
Texas A&M +2.5
Tier B:
Georgia State +1
Illinois State +1

Will update around 3 P.M. EST tomorrow for those interested! Have a good night all!

[ebbearsfb1]

only see georgia state +1, and illinois state +1, let me know if you see anything else

i've noticed for home dogs the past few days when it has gone from a dog to a favor the home team wins..
jacksonville st yesterday, evanvsille today, maybe something to check out?

[ebbearsfb1]

yea did you say what tier a is?

i've been tracking all my the short home dogs in my thread as well

[AbeFroman]

only see georgia state +1, and illinois state +1, let me know if you see anything else i've noticed for home dogs the past few days when it has gone from a dog to a favor the home team wins.. jacksonville st yesterday, evanvsille today, maybe something to check out?

Interesting, although at both books I just checked Evansville started at pick and finished at a dog, so it never was a favorite. Typo? Interesting to check, though, tell me about the above though.

[ebbearsfb1]

at book maker last night evansville was +1, today i saw it as a pk

but basically what im saying is

last night at book maker jacksonville state was +1.5 to start, when it closed it was at -1.5, even though public was all over the team they were playing....

same thing tonight evansville at bm started plus 1 ended pk.... they covered easily,,


just some rlm to check

[AbeFroman]

Interesting, I will look in to that when I get some time, most likely won't come till later in the week though.

[AbeFroman]

Just looked over the last couple days, only saw a few instances where this applied, and it seemed to be about 50/50.

I'll look more extensively when I have time, but this could be pretty labor intensive. Stay tuned, hitting the sack. Catch you all tomorrow!

[AbeFroman]

Here we go folks, the plays for 2-9-11:
Tier A:
Northwestern +2.5
Memphis +2.5
UAB +2.5
Ball State +2
Dayton +2.5
Arkansas +1
Texas A&M +3
Tier B:
None

Keep an eye on Texas A&M. Some books have already moved it to 3.5, but the two books I use had it at 3 when I got it, so going to keep it there. If it moves to 4, I would recommend staying away from it, however it will remain on the list since that is the line I locked in.

An item to note, both Tier B plays from last evening have moved to PICK, and therefore are not system plays. Will keep an eye on them to see if they move any before I head out.

BOL!

[AbeFroman]

Going to start tracking plays where a team starts as a dog and ends up a favorite per EB's post last night.

Georgia State opened at +1 last night, and are now either pick 'em or -1 at most books.

Going to call this Tier C. Will add Illinois State if they become a favorite.

Tier C:
Georgia State -1

[AbeFroman]

Tier A:
Northwestern +2.5
Memphis +2.5
UAB +2.5
Ball State +2
Dayton +2.5
Arkansas +1
Texas A&M +3
Tier B:
Illinois State +1
Tier C:
Georgia State -1
Night
Tier A:
4-3
Tier B:
1-0
Tier C:
0-1

Week:
Tier A:
5-4
Tier B:
4-0
Tier C:
0-1

Season:
Tier A
101-89
Tier B:
60-52-1

Tomorrow's plays coming tomorrow around 4, 4:30 p.m. EST.

BOL all!

[AbeFroman]

Here we go for this evening, 2-10-11. Records are above:
Tier A:
Louisiana Lafayette +2
Wisconsin Milwaukee +3
Illinois +2
Florida Atlantic +2
Cal Poly +3
Sacramento State +1.5
Tier B:
Georgia Tech +1.5
St. Johns +2.5
Illinois-Chicago +2.5
Weber State +1.5
Tier C:
None

BOL all!

[huesbch]

GL Abe.....to the bank with these!

[xelance]

you got me 2 solid wins out of 3 plays in Tier B...thanks a lot man!!!!!! You are awesome. Tier B killed it tonight again!

[AbeFroman]

Tier A:
Louisiana Lafayette +2
Wisconsin Milwaukee +3
Illinois +2
Florida Atlantic +2
Cal Poly +3
Sacramento State +1.5
Tier B:
Georgia Tech +1.5
St. Johns +2.5
Illinois-Chicago +2.5
Weber State +1.5
Tier C:
None

Night:
Tier A:
4-2
Tier B:
3-1
Tier C:
0-0

Week:
Tier A:
9-6
Tier B:
7-1
Tier C:
0-1

Season:
Tier A
105-91
Tier B:
63-54-1

[AbeFroman]

you got me 2 solid wins out of 3 plays in Tier B...thanks a lot man!!!!!! You are awesome. Tier B killed it tonight again!

Another solid night for Tier B, glad you were a winner tonight!

Tomorrow's plays coming in a bit, and will update in the AM with the Cal Poly result.

[ebbearsfb1]

weber st was a tier c for me

[AbeFroman]

Early Look at 2-11-11:
Tier A:
Pennsylvania +2.5
Tier B:
Columbia +2.5

Our typical Ivy League laced Friday, we will see what gets updated for tomorrow's slate. Hitting the sack, catch you all tomorrow! BOL!

[AbeFroman]

Good afternoon everyone!

Updating for tonight, 2-11-11, plays:
Tier A:
Pennsylvania +2.5
Tier B:
Columbia +3
Dartmouth +1
USC Upstate +3

As always, week and season records are above. BOL!

[AbeFroman]

Tier A:
Pennsylvania +2.5
Tier B:
Columbia +3
Dartmouth +1
USC Upstate +3

Tier A:
0-1
Tier B:
0-3

Week:
Tier A:
9-7
Tier B:
7-4

Season:
Tier A:
105-92
Tier B:
63-57-1

The Ivy league again proves tough this week, I may go back and compile all the results from just the Ivy League and see if it's been as bad all season as it's been the last two weeks.