Romanov's NCAAB 2011 System Picks

[Romanov]

Hello. I am going to try betting only moneylines in this thread and track the units. My unit size is very small. I do not recommend playing these plays. In the beginning they might be fade material.

Minnesota -150 1.5 to win 1
Syracuse +125 .8 to win 1
NC State +130 .77 to win 1
Maryland +160 .625 to win 1

In order to have a positive day I need to hit the Minnesota and any other underdog ML.

Hitting a parlay of all four has a probability of 3.9%. The parlay pays out far too little for this to be worthwhile so it is a no play. Over a million plays of this parlay, all for one unit, I would lose 122,891 units. Thats a bad play

[firehoyt]

Why'd you start two treads on the same topic/same day?!

[Romanov]

Why'd you start two treads on the same topic/same day?!

Take 1/one guess firehoyt?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

[Romanov]

Added play:

2.2 units on San Diego St ML (-220) to win 1

[Bongo]

I like the NC State pick a lot.

[Romanov]

Thanks Bongo. Anyone have any thoughts on LSU +105? They're playing a shitty SC team that lost in double digits to Auburn... let that sink in. Auburn.

Edit: on second thought, LSU is worse. The ML should be +130. No play

[Romanov]

NBA: Going to play Suns ML, just waiting for the ML to drop. Its sitting at -225 right now but at matchbook (not my book, but a sharp book) it opened at -380 and is now down to -202. I expect the line to drop closer to gametime. If I don't get back in time to post, know that I played it at -225 at least

[Romanov]

Minnesota -150 1.5 to win 1
Syracuse +125 .8 to win 1
NC State +130 .77 to win 1
Maryland +160 .625 to win 1
San Diego St -220 2.2 to win 1
Phoenix -225 2.25 to win 1

Not a bad first day. Im up .105 units

Plays in a few mins

[Romanov]

Big plays:

Tennessee -335 - 10.05 units to win 3
Washington St -140 4.2 units to win 3
Arizona -140 - 4.2 units to win 3

Will play all of these MLs to win 1 unit (only faves):

Cleveland St -280
Butler -700
Wright St -240
Detroit -500
Western Kentucky -440
Notre Dame -700
Idaho -200
Cal Poly -160
California -350
Furman -165
Charleston -165
Davidson -220
Northern Arizona -400
Morehead St -280
Tennessee Tech -112
Montana -170

Dogs (not playing these, but tracking them):

NewMexSt +120
CS Northridge +135
Portland +175
Pacific +130
Tennessee St +165

I would play the dogs if I had the bankroll. I have it tied up in the faves and I don't want to throw away more units than I have to. 69.27 units at stake here, to win 25. Hypothetically, the dogs would have about 3.5 units at stake to win 5.

[Romanov]

Big plays:

Tennessee -335 - 10.05 units to win 3
Washington St -140 4.2 units to win 3
Arizona -140 - 4.2 units to win 3

Played all of these MLs to win 1 unit (only faves):

Cleveland St -280
Butler -700
Wright St -240
Detroit -500
Western Kentucky -440
Notre Dame -700
Idaho -200
Cal Poly -160
California -350
Furman -165
Charleston -165
Davidson -220
Northern Arizona -400
Morehead St -280
Tennessee Tech -112
Montana -170

Lost 1.3 units but that was better than I expected when Butler, my largest favorite last night, went down. If Butler plays anywhere close to par, I'm up 7 units but hey, that's why its sports betting. With the smaller card tonight, our plays will be better. If in the future, the big plays usually make money but the regular plays are the drain, I will switch to only big plays. Until then my friends! Oh, and my overall unit w/l is -1.195. For just working the kinks out its not too bad


Dogs (didn't play these, but tracked them) so these didn't really matter:

NewMexSt +120
CS Northridge +135
Portland +175
Pacific +130
Tennessee St +165

[Romanov]

2/4/11

Big Plays:

Yale -192 ------- 5.76 units to win 3
Rider -290 ------ 8.7 units to win 3
Fairfield -135 --- 4.05 units to win 3

Regular Plays:

Siena -900 ----------- 9 units to win 1
Saint Peter -220 ------2.2 units to win 1
Stony Brook -125 ---- 1.25 units to win 1

Best of luck

[Romanov]

30.96 units at risk to win 12

8% probability to win them all

[Romanov]

Helluva night so far. With just one big play left (Fairfield) and they have a lead, this could be the start of something profitable. If you are lurking I would not follow yet, this could just be luck (see 1 point victories for a couple of these ML faves)

Big Plays:

Yale -192 ------- 5.76 units to win 3
Rider -290 ------ 8.7 units to win 3
Fairfield -135 --- 4.05 units to win 3 (looking good!)

Regular Plays:

Siena -900 ----------- 9 units to win 1
Saint Peter -220 ------2.2 units to win 1
Stony Brook -125 ---- 1.25 units to win 1

Up 6.75 units tonight so far. I have 4.05 units left in play. Either going to be up 2.7 units or 9.75 units at the end of this one!

Siena and Stony Brook were borderline plays and they went 1-1 so I might have to up my border in the future

[thfootball]

I had the thoughts of playing the favorites "straight up" on a individual basis, and i stick with all the home teams and stay way from the favorites on the road. You won't make a lot depending on how much you make, especially straight up. But possibly by the end of the betting day you might be up a bit, and it's better than nothing. I'd like to try it, but just not quite ready yet.

[sweethook]

gl.man

[Romanov]

Fairfield wins! On the night I made 9.75 units. Overall +8.555 units. I will make plays in a couple hours. I might only have big plays if there are too many plays for my bank roll. Best of luck today

[Romanov]

I had the thoughts of playing the favorites "straight up" on a individual basis, and i stick with all the home teams and stay way from the favorites on the road. You won't make a lot depending on how much you make, especially straight up. But possibly by the end of the betting day you might be up a bit, and it's better than nothing. I'd like to try it, but just not quite ready yet.

You can make or lose however much are willing to bet

[Romanov]

2/5 Plays

This took longer than I expected. Jesus... (Bolded all plays larger than 2.5 units risked)

Team - Units - ML - To Win

Virginia Tech 1.75 -130 1.346
Texas AM 2.25 -220 1.023
Charlotte 2.75 -165 1.667
Miami 1.5 -400 0.375
George Mason 4.5 -195 2.308
Cleveland St 3.75 -170 2.206
Texas El Paso 2.75 -150 1.833
Washington 1.5 -380 0.395
Mid Ten St 2.75 -270 1.019
Hofstra 3 -210 1.429
Kansas 1.75 -250 0.700
Tennessee 1.5 -230 0.652
Kent St 1.75 -725 0.241
Yale 1.5 -173 0.867
NC Wilmington 2.75 -170 1.618
Wright St 1.5 -800 0.188
Valpraiso 2.25 -330 0.682
Drexel 2 -160 1.250
Colorado St 3.75 -190 1.974
Wash St 4.5 -140 3.214
Pepperdine 1.5 -125 1.200
Kentucky 1.75 -125 1.400
CS Fullerton 1.75 -210 0.833
Pacific 1.75 -165 1.061
Weber St 1.75 -300 0.583
Austin Peay 4.25 -130 3.269
Tenn St 1.5 -450 0.333

Is this hard to read?

[Romanov]

This is a make or break day pretty much. If I get hammered and I am down 20 units, it will be a tough hole to climb out of and one that may cause me to stop posting in this thread for a while (not out of depression, but it takes time away from actually making good bets).

Maybe I should've name this thread something else. Obviously people are not attracted to moneyline talk.

In other news, I recently finished Saul Bellow's Herzog. It is my favorite book of all time. Also just read The Metamorphosis by Kafka. Very good! Whether he is a Christ figure or a hallucinating urbanite, I do not know. Both maybe! What do you guys read?

I saw the movie "Please Give". It was pretty good. It wasn't obviously moral but it did leave a mark. I also watched Casino. Sorry guys, Im just killing time here. Movies.. movies.. not gonna see james cameron's sanctum.

I ate some really good Indian food last night. Probably americanized but **** it



Edit: It'll be a good start if Cleveland State wins this early game. Up 17-15 right now with 9 left in the 1st

[sportman1313]

good luck to ya bud...will be following and seeing how you fare. I also like playing the big favorites on occasion for quite a bit of money....have laid off it for a while though. Hope you do well today bud

[Romanov]

good luck to ya bud...will be following and seeing how you fare. I also like playing the big favorites on occasion for quite a bit of money....have laid off it for a while though. Hope you do well today bud

Thanks. Good luck to you too. What are your plays today? I have only recently been betting ML faves so we'll see how it goes. If today goes well, this could be long-term. If not, this could be just a blip

[sportman1313]

I've been fortunate to have done pretty well playing huge ml faves, but obviously some of the blowout possibilities aren't always up at one of the books I have an account with. Nonetheless, I have been pretty lucky on quite a few of them...I had quite a scare a few weeks back but ended up winning it fortunately. Since then, I haven't really played huge ml faves. Thus far, I haven't made any plays and haven't really done thorough studies yet. Most likely, I'll be playing moreso nba games later in the evening...I'm still looking for some good plays in cbb tho, but I personally like playing 2h lines now for most part.
Thanks man...I wish you luck doing this, but do realize that there will be times that a huge ml favorite loses and could seriously cause bankroll issues. Money management is key....just make sure you don't put all of your bankroll and such on single plays, otherwise it may come back to haunt you. I know others who make consistent and pretty solid profits from playing almost exclusively underdogs...many ways to play the games but whatever works for ya, stick with it. It doesn't seem like you're doing that so you should be good....anyhow, BOL to you bro.

[Romanov]

Thanks. I too have felt the large favorite ML mistake. Hopefully I can avoid those

[Romanov]

Just getting bent over today. I'm going to wait and see how this plays out but tomorrow morning I am going to go through all the plays in this thread and see how the dogs did + the spread. It seems almost all of my wins have not covered the spread. I might be doing something wrong... If I end up in the negative overall in units after today, I think I am going to stop betting real cash and start tracking this system as well as the dogs this system picks plus the points.

[Romanov]

Virginia Tech 1.75 -130 1.346
Texas AM 2.25 -220 1.023
Charlotte 2.75 -165 1.667
Miami 1.5 -400 0.375
George Mason 4.5 -195 2.308
Cleveland St 3.75 -170 2.206
Texas El Paso 2.75 -150 1.833
Washington 1.5 -380 0.395
Mid Ten St 2.75 -270 1.019
Hofstra 3 -210 1.429
Kansas 1.75 -250 0.700
Tennessee 1.5 -230 0.652
Kent St 1.75 -725 0.241
Yale 1.5 -173 0.867
NC Wilmington 2.75 -170 1.618
Wright St 1.5 -800 0.188
Valpraiso 2.25 -330 0.682
Drexel 2 -160 1.250
Colorado St 3.75 -190 1.974
Wash St 4.5 -140 3.214
Pepperdine 1.5 -125 1.200
Kentucky 1.75 -125 1.400
CS Fullerton 1.75 -210 0.833
Pacific 1.75 -165 1.061
Weber St 1.75 -300 0.583
Austin Peay 4.25 -130 3.269
Tenn St 1.5 -450 0.333

-3.186 units on the day
+5.369 units overall

[Romanov]

I am going to go back to my old system of flat betting. I would've been +15 units

[Romanov]

Plays today. Might add some later when more lines go up:

Penn St -175 ----- 3.06 units to win 1.75
Wisconsin -400 --- 10 units to win 2.5
Ohio St. -235 ----- 7.05 units to win 3
UNC -300 --------- 6.75 units to win 2.25
Fairfield -280 ----- 4.2 units to win 1.5

31.06 units to win 11


Lets keep an eye on this. Don't play these, I am only tracking:

Michigan +4
Michigan St +9
Minnesota +5.5
Florida St +7
Rider +6.5

[ebbearsfb1]

cool thread , i thought you were going back to flat betting?? good luck

[Romanov]

cool thread , i thought you were going back to flat betting?? good luck

I know I wrote that, but I'm going to wait and see how this works out. I should be getting better value by not flat betting.

[ebbearsfb1]

very true good luck, i just put my finds together on short home dog money lines and spread... on ml don't anyone public is on lol


i see your trying to hedge in some of these it looks like good luck

[Romanov]

Dog Tracker

Yesterday the dogs of my picks with the spread fared like so (The dogs that covered are in red):

Virginia Tech 1.75 -130 1.346

Texas AM 2.25 -220 1.023

Charlotte 2.75 -165 1.667
Miami 1.5 -400 0.375
George Mason 4.5 -195 2.308
Cleveland St 3.75 -170 2.206
Texas El Paso 2.75 -150 1.833
Washington 1.5 -380 0.395
Mid Ten St 2.75 -270 1.019
Hofstra 3 -210 1.429
Kansas 1.75 -250 0.700
Tennessee 1.5 -230 0.652
Kent St 1.75 -725 0.241
Yale 1.5 -173 0.867
NC Wilmington 2.75 -170 1.618
Wright St 1.5 -800 0.188
Valpraiso 2.25 -330 0.682
Drexel 2 -160 1.250
Colorado St 3.75 -190 1.974
Wash St 4.5 -140 3.214
Pepperdine 1.5 -125 1.200
Kentucky 1.75 -125 1.400
CS Fullerton 1.75 -210 0.833
Pacific 1.75 -165 1.061
Weber St 1.75 -300 0.583
Austin Peay 4.25 -130 3.269
Tenn St 1.5 -450 0.333

Would've went 15-12 on Saturday

Yale -192 ------- 5.76 units to win 3
Rider -290 ------ 8.7 units to win 3
Fairfield -135 --- 4.05 units to win 3 <---- did not cover by 1/2 pt.

Regular Plays:

Siena -900 ----------- 9 units to win 1
Saint Peter -220 ------2.2 units to win 1
Stony Brook -125 ---- 1.25 units to win 1

Would've went 4-2 on Friday

Tennessee -335 - 10.05 units to win 3
Washington St -140 4.2 units to win 3
Arizona -140 - 4.2 units to win 3
Cleveland St -280
Butler -700
Wright St -240
Detroit -500
Western Kentucky -440
Notre Dame -700
Idaho -200
Cal Poly -160
California -350
Furman -165 (push)
Charleston -165
Davidson -220
Northern Arizona -400
Morehead St -280
Tennessee Tech -112
Montana -170

Dogs would've went 7-12 on Thursday


Overall the dogs fair 26-26. Which is I guess how it should be. I will keep an eye on the dogs though

[Romanov]

very true good luck, i just put my finds together on short home dog money lines and spread... on ml don't anyone public is on lol i see your trying to hedge in some of these it looks like good luck

I'm not trying to hedge just yet. I am just tracking how the underdogs fair with the points against my ML faves. I thought it looked really good yesterday but since I started it is 26-26 so there probably isn't anything to it. I read your home dog posts. Pretty good ones. I am wary of my Ohio St pick but I had to make it!

[Romanov]

Plays today. Might add some later when more lines go up:

Penn St -175 ----- 3.06 units to win 1.75
Wisconsin -400 --- 10 units to win 2.5 (looking really good)
Ohio St. -235 ----- 7.05 units to win 3
UNC -300 --------- 6.75 units to win 2.25
Fairfield -280 ----- 4.2 units to win 1.5

ATTENTION: Added another 6 units to Ohio St -200 to win 3 more. so total of 13.05 units on ohio st to win 6

[Romanov]

Penn St -175 ----- 3.06 units to win 1.75
Wisconsin -400 --- 10 units to win 2.5
Ohio St. -235 and -200 ----- 13.05 units to win 6
UNC -300 --------- 6.75 units to win 2.25
Fairfield -280 ----- 4.2 units to win 1.5

+3.44 on the day. What really sucks is that this afternoon, after I made my 5 plays this morning, I decided to attribute value to my picks using a different criteria which caused me to add 3 more units to win on Ohio St right before gametime and that same criteria would've made Fairfield a no play. They are down by 20 right now so I am just considering it lost money. Not a bad day at all today. Up 8.809 units overall. I think I have the unit assignments down now. Should be interesting. Superbowl wise, I see that GB would be a smart bet but I'm not playing a side

[Romanov]

So here we are. Up 8.809 units after fackin around with this. Gonna go do the math. I hope I get to play KU vs MU. **** the tigers