Short home faves

[No coincidences]

Is it just me, or are home favorites in the say -1 to -4 range really struggling to cover this year? Maybe I'm just picking the wrong ones, but they almost feel like a set-up....

Conversely, it seems like home dogs in the +1 to 4 range hit a lot more often -- at least this season.

[DerekMadden]

i totally agree, and your magic number -5.5 is death

[spargament]

trends for that should be semi widely available, no?

[No coincidences]

trends for that should be semi widely available, no?

I'd like to see them -- especially compared to previous years.

[spargament]

I'd like to see them -- especially compared to previous years.

Let me see if i can't put something together at least for this year, past data input would be super annoying if it came down to that. So let's hope I or someone else thinks of something to provide a comparison for past years while I try to put this years up

[spargament]

Well off the bat Home Faves are beating the spread only 48.7% of the time, which even when compared with Road Faves, come up about 1 percent short (Road Faves hit over 49.3) . It's by far the worst overall situation regardless of spread size ATS thus far in the year. I'm having trouble finding a reliable specific collection of results ATS for the year thus far

[spargament]

And over the past 7 days, home favorites win % ATS dropped even further to just below 47%...that's without breaking the spreads down...Noco, I think you're on to something here.

[mart59a]

Is it just me, or are home favorites in the say -1 to -4 range really struggling to cover this year? Maybe I'm just picking the wrong ones, but they almost feel like a set-up....

Conversely, it seems like home dogs in the +1 to 4 range hit a lot more often -- at least this season.

Could not agree more...very frustrating.
Did not have this prob in the past.
Maybe I'm picking the wrong ones as well.

[Wilforth]

Is it just me, or are home favorites in the say -1 to -4 range really struggling to cover this year? Maybe I'm just picking the wrong ones, but they almost feel like a set-up....

Conversely, it seems like home dogs in the +1 to 4 range hit a lot more often -- at least this season.

That's how it ought to be. A home favorite of 3.5 points or less is no favorite. The team is only favored because they're at home. You now have to look at how well the road dog plays on the road. Good teams which can hold their own on the road are a money machine as road dogs of 3.5 points or less.

[No coincidences]

That's how it ought to be. A home favorite of 3.5 points or less is no favorite. The team is only favored because they're at home. You now have to look at how well the road dog plays on the road. Good teams which can hold their own on the road are a money machine as road dogs of 3.5 points or less.

Just seems like the home court was more of an advantage in years past. Even if that's true Wil and they'd be virtually even in a neutral spot, you'd like to think you can give home teams the benefit of the doubt with the points. Instead, not only are they not covering -- they're not even winning SU.

[homerbush]

I have noticed this as well. Teams +1 to +3.5 seem to win outright at an alarming rate this year and not just the road teams either. Same thing in NBA.