Cappinthepigs 2011 NCAAB Picks and Thoughts

[cappinthepigs]

After a long hiatus from posting in the forums I am back and ready to do some work. I will list my plays and thoughts in this thread and welcome and feedback cause lord knows we can all use the banter to either lock in our plays, stroke our egos, or point us to the correct side. Tell me I'm a genius or a retard, whichever you like, just let me know what you think. Best of luck to all in 2011 lets kill the bookies!!

I wager 1% of my bankroll per Unit stated. NEVER risk more than 3% bankroll on any play!


I will rate my plays on the * system:
1* = Risking 1.10 Units to win 1.00 Units (on standard -110 lines)
2* = Risking 2.20 Units to win 2.00 Units (on standard -110 lines)
3* = Risking 3.30 Units to win 3.00 Units (on standard -110 lines)
4* = If I ever post a 4* play, let me know how stupid I am. I am trying my best to practice some solid money management and risking that much on one play is just stupid!

[cappinthepigs]

LSU Tigers +2.5 -107 (SportBet) 1*

The LSU Tigers aren't very good. They are better @ home with ATS wins in 9 of their L11 in Baton Rouge. They have even managed to go to Auburn and pick up a SU & ATS win this year and beat Arkansas @ home to have them sitting @ 2-1 in conference play. Ole Miss on the other hand is .............. 0-4 in conference SU. They are 2-2 ATS in conference play, but both of those wins were still SU losses as underdogs. The two games they were favored in this year in conference play they were just outplayed and dropped them both. Give me the home team catching more than a basket in this SEC West showdown any day.

South Carolina Gamecocks +8 -110 (BetUS) 1*

The Kentucky Wildcats are a better team than South Carolina, they are also a younger team than South Carolina and being from SEC country if I can tell you anything it is this. IT IS HARD TO WIN ON THE ROAD IN THE SEC!! We aren't asking the Gamecocks to win this game outright (but they might) we are simply asking them to not get blown out. S. Carolina has played 2 league games @ home this year (both wins in OT) SU wins over Arkansas and Vandy. They have also gone to FLA and won SU. They are tied @ the top of the East with FLA (whom they hold a tiebreak over) @ 3-1. Kentucky meanwhile has shown it's youth on the road. The Wildcats are 2-0 @ Home vs League teams SU (1-1 ATS) but 0-2 on the road SU and ATS! You just don't take young teams on the road and win in this league. Period! Take the touchdown and 2pt conversion in this one and slip 1/4 Unit on ML as well with the Gamecocks!

South Carolina Gamecocks +325 ML (Sportbet) 1/4*

[fly fisher]

good luck cap, hope you start out great. I followed a good number of your plays last year and many were winners and I thank you for that