Big East (Road to the Rollover)

[Facepunch]

After winning the DSI Bowl Contest I have been playing 2-4 plays a day at $110 Per play to satisfy the Rollover requirements for the $3,500 I won. Just added another $2,400 to the rollover by adding an additional $400 win from the Moneyball contest that carries a 6X rollover.

I am currently @ $3,900 for the rollover satisfaction after about a week including some pretty reckless betting on playoff NFL, (losing a nice chunk on New England)
My cash balance is currently $3,270 (not including the $400 I have not gotten from Moneyball yet)
So essentially $3,670

I have decided to start posting my plays with a brief synopsis, and because I am a Big East fan, I have decided to stick to the Big East. I think the plan is solid, Not putting big money on any individual play will (hopefully) ensure that I am able to cash out a good chunk of the money I won, this thread will help keep me honest.

Wed, 19th 2011,

Cinci +3.5 ( ND is headed into a slump, and this could be the time to start selling them)

Louisville -7 (getting great value as this line marches down from 8.5 due to a good win by S-J against ND)

WV -11. (admittedly a homer play, but I will be surprised if WV does not win by DD, I will also be attending to support the Gold n' blue)

[ji03]

Cincinnati looks good as you said Notre Dame seems to be on a decline and I don't believe them have anybody to stop Yancy Gates.

[Bcatswin]

Cincinnati looks good as you said Notre Dame seems to be on a decline and I don't believe them have anybody to stop Yancy Gates.

I agree with this comment, but the only problem here is as of yesterday Cronin said they were still unsure if Gates would be able to go tonight, that as we all know could change everything...

On another note we know N.D. is still playing short handed since Jr. Carleton Scott hurt his hammy @ the Cuse and is not expected back until early Feb, he was averaging 11.9 pts and 6.4 rbs a game...Another thing that may bode well for the Bearcats is there athleticism and speed with there full court press and trap, N.D. is coming off a performance @ St. Johns where they turned the ball over 20 times...

Going to look a little closer at this one and make a decision later...

BOL 2 ALL!!!!!

[Regul8er]

Notre Dame is a COMPLETELY different team at home.
They blew St. John's out on their home floor, and got blown our at MSG....with 8 days inbetween games.

[Bcatswin]

Yea totally agree Regul8er, *The Fighting Irish are 11-0 at Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center this season. Notre Dame has won 80 of its last 86 (.930) home games and is 34-5 (.872) in its last 39 BIG EAST home contests.
* Notre Dame is averaging 84.7 points per game in its 11 home games this season, while the Irish average 56.3 points in their three true road games, all BIG EAST contests. The Fighting Irish are shooting 48.6% from the field at home, including a 42.1% mark from three-point range. Notre Dame is shooting 41.1% from the field and 25.0% from three-point range in its away games.
* In three BIG EAST home contests this season, Notre Dame is averaging 72.7 points per game. The Irish are shooting 44.2% from the field in those games, including 40.4% from three-point range.

[Bcatswin]

• Notre Dame has scored less than 60 points in its four losses this season. The Irish are 2-4 this season when scoring fewer than 60 points. The Irish are averaging 56.8 points per game in the four setbacks and 81.1 points in their 14 victories.
• The Irish are surrendering 62.6 points per game in their wins and they are allowing 73.2 points per game in their losses.

[Facepunch]

After looking at these games again, I would have to say my confidence level in WVU being able to cover the big # is diminishing, Marshall has covered this match-up ATS 7 out of 8 times in the past 8 years.
Does not bode well for the -11 that I bought Earlier.
Still feel good about Cinci and Louisville but very wary about this -11 4 WVU.
Luckily I have my Iphone, and Diamond has Mobile betting.
Could lead to some halftime hedging from the WVU Colosseum.

I have never hedged a bet live before, I might even add to the bet if it is doing well, just to experience it.

[Facepunch]

Argh, Not the night I was hoping for,
1-2 to start off Not too good.
It's a marathon not a race
Tomorrow is another day.

Rollover @$3,600
Cash @ $3,550 (-$120)

[Regul8er]

Get em tonight Facepunch!

[spargament]

Rutgers ML ftw.

[Facepunch]

Good call spargament.

I am on Rutgers but I feel pretty comfortable laying the points. I am seeing 3.5 @ Pinnacle and -4 everywhere else, I am going to wait an hour or two to lock it in to see if it goes down at DSI.
It is my only play tonight, I was looking hard @ the under but do not see any value in the 124- 125 range, That number seems about perfect.
Rutgers is 8-2 at home while South Florida is 0-7 Away.
Rutgers has been horrendous against the line (1-8-1 for their last 10), but have seen essentially a murderer's row of the Big East in recent match ups .
South Florida and Providence are going to be relegated to the bottom two positions in the Big East, and this is a great chance for Rutgers to get a little separation between them and that bottom of the conference .

Rutgers -4 (pending 3.5 if it drops within the next hour or so), because it is my only play today I am going to put $220 to win $200

[Facepunch]

Back up to -4 across the board. There was about an hour or so period where Pinnacle offered it @ 3.5 but the rest of the books did not follow suit, and Pinnacle now has it back @ -4.

Pulled the trigger for
$220

[Facepunch]

Glad I stayed away from that Under. Good game right up until USF self-destructed in the last 6 min. (I will have to note that)
Good win tonight

Rollover @$3,400
Cash @ $3,750 (+$80)
2-2 ATS

[Facepunch]

No Big East Plays today.

Anyone else got anything?

I am going to spend my afternoon capping a full card for tomorrow.

[shantystar]

gl.

[Facepunch]

Ended up puttin $55 on LA Lakers.

Rollover @$3,350
Cash @ $3,800 (+$130)
2-2 ATS (will not count the last minute LAL play for my ATS)

[Facepunch]

Big East Plays for Jan/22/2011

Syracuse -6 (expect Syracuse to come strong after their first loss. This home game against Villanova is the perfect venue to get back into it)

Louisville -5 ( The injuries are not going to be enough to help the Friars, Louisville has been struggling with injuries all season. They have good depth and great focus)

Marquette +3.5 (Marquette handed ND their most embarrassing loss this season, that kind of ownage does not go away, it lingers. Look for ND to keep it close, In this coin-flip I will always take the points. )

[ROYAJA8]

Villanova will win this game. I think Villa is one of the most complete teams in college n will take it all this year.

[Facepunch]

Good Call Royaja8

I had a bad read on that game for sure.

[Facepunch]

Rollover @$3,050
Cash @ $3,470(-$200)
2-5ATS Big East
3-5 ATS All Plays

[Facepunch]

Today there is only one Big East Play on the board and it is a tough one.
West Virginia just got beat by lowly Marshall, and although it is a rivalry game which has always been inexplicably close it was an embarrassment. It snapped a four game winning streak where the Mountaineers beat 2 top 25 teams (including Purdue).
That being said the number is too high
South Florida has lost every away game this year, but has managed to keep it close (losing by an average of 7 points).
That coupled with the fact that WVU has been a slow starting team all season, makes me think this one is going to be closer than it should be.
As a WVU fan it pains me to do this, but I am taking....

South Fla +13 $110

Also (non-Big East B-Ball Plays for the day)

Green Bay -3.5 $110
Steelers -4 $315 @ -105 (play of the Week)

[Facepunch]

Should have got Steelers while it was still @ 3.5

[Facepunch]

Rollover @$2,500
Cash @ $3,870(+$400)
3-5ATS Big East
5-5 ATS All Plays

0-3 Saturday,

Bounce back 3-0 Sunday.

Difference was the steeler's game.

[Facepunch]

Notre Dame is a different team when the venture away from home.

@ home they are 13-0 but away they are abysmal.
I hate to play the so and so beat so and so, so that means so and so can beat so and so.

But I focused on the matchup both of these teams played against marquette.
Pittsburgh saw them @ home and beat them by 9pts. whereas Notre Dame was away and lost by 22.

Look at the matchup against Syracuse where ND fell by 12 and Pitt won @ home by 8.

In their last four games away from home ND has not only lost straight up but has not covered a spread, losing by double digits each time.

Their last victory away from home came in November 2010 against Wisconsin in a low scoring affair.


I wish that I had jumped on the -10 line last night When i was checking scores. I was hoping that the ND faithful would pound the + points and drive this one below double digits, but it looks like even the ND homers are aware that away from the magic of Joyce Stadium the Irish are unproven and Pathetic.

Pitt -11$ 220
Only play of the day

[Facepunch]

Not Sure how, But I called DSI to verify my rollover, and they have my rollover @ 1,500.
Good news I guess. I just do not know how they came up with the number.
after today my Rollover will be $ 1,300.

Looks like about 1 more week.

[Facepunch]

Rollover @$1,300
Cash @ $3,650(+$180)
3-6ATS Big East
5-5 ATS All Plays

[Facepunch]

2 Plays Today

Syracuse -13
UConn +4

Both risking $220

[Facepunch]

Rollover @$900
Cash @ $3,630(+$160)
4-7ATS Big East

[Facepunch]

Villanova -5.5
Only play today
$330 to win 300