After I cap a line, then compare it to the CBS computer model
(which I do not believe takes Home Court Advantage into account)
then compare it to the Vegas line, and look for differentials to exploit,
I arrive at my choices.
It's documented that the Home Court advantage is 4 points in CBB.
But an oft problem with my capping and those of us who do this
with similar approaches is that the Home Court advantage is sometimes
far greater than that.. as much as 8+. Last night is an example where
I lost with two road bets. What happens is that in the reasoning process,
the lines for superior teams on the road appear to be valuable, yet
it's often a false allure.
I already did my work today on initial games. You know what I arrived
at ? 4 Road teams.
Ohio pk @ Bowling Green, St. John's +7.5 @ Louisville, Rhode Island -2
@ St. Joseph's, and Ball St. -3.5 @ Eastern Michigan.
Yet, what does information and stats, and everything we can use good
for if it does not account for the Home Court advantage ?
The lines look tasty, and include HC advantage in them, but there is
always more than a few home teams which rise to the occasion much
greater than could possibly be expected.
At times, I've considered limiting my capping to only taking Home Teams.
Of course not indiscriminately, but after they are carefully hand selected.
comments and serious discussion
(which I do not believe takes Home Court Advantage into account)
then compare it to the Vegas line, and look for differentials to exploit,
I arrive at my choices.
It's documented that the Home Court advantage is 4 points in CBB.
But an oft problem with my capping and those of us who do this
with similar approaches is that the Home Court advantage is sometimes
far greater than that.. as much as 8+. Last night is an example where
I lost with two road bets. What happens is that in the reasoning process,
the lines for superior teams on the road appear to be valuable, yet
it's often a false allure.
I already did my work today on initial games. You know what I arrived
at ? 4 Road teams.
Ohio pk @ Bowling Green, St. John's +7.5 @ Louisville, Rhode Island -2
@ St. Joseph's, and Ball St. -3.5 @ Eastern Michigan.
Yet, what does information and stats, and everything we can use good
for if it does not account for the Home Court advantage ?
The lines look tasty, and include HC advantage in them, but there is
always more than a few home teams which rise to the occasion much
greater than could possibly be expected.
At times, I've considered limiting my capping to only taking Home Teams.
Of course not indiscriminately, but after they are carefully hand selected.
comments and serious discussion
