Sports Reserch NCAAB 1/13

Pacifica · 01-14-11, 06:25 AM

I do hope one or two of you took advantage of the plays, last night - 3 winners, one just, but your bankroll doesn't show 'only just' - I only normally have 1 or 2 plays per day and in some instances there are no plays. The statistics I use mainly give 'over' plays. I do not force plays for the sake of it unlike 'touts'.

Depending on popularity I will continue to post plays for a few days. I always bet my own picks, so when they win I do and VC versa. I hate the word 'system' I prefer statistical analysis - but it has been tested for for over a year and is currently winning 64%. I am a Mathematics major from a UK university and have found a little known quirk in the data that linemakers ignore - this gives me an edge.

Those of you who do understand statistics would know that this type of data follows the Binomial Distribution, if you had no edge (ie a 50% handicapper) the probability of going 3-0 would be 12.5%, as a 64% handicapper that increases to 26.2%, over double the expected return.

Whatever analysis or picks you use, good luck for future plays, but remember no one can deliver instant wealth - if say they can - stay well clear - they are lying!!

Cera1 · 01-14-11, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by Pacifica

I do hope one or two of you took advantage of the plays, last night - 3 winners, one just, but your bankroll doesn't show 'only just' - I only normally have 1 or 2 plays per day and in some instances there are no plays. The statistics I use mainly give 'over' plays. I do not force plays for the sake of it unlike 'touts'.

Depending on popularity I will continue to post plays for a few days. I always bet my own picks, so when they win I do and VC versa. I hate the word 'system' I prefer statistical analysis - but it has been tested for for over a year and is currently winning 64%. I am a Mathematics major from a UK university and have found a little known quirk in the data that linemakers ignore - this gives me an edge.

Those of you who do understand statistics would know that this type of data follows the Binomial Distribution, if you had no edge (ie a 50% handicapper) the probability of going 3-0 would be 12.5%, as a 64% handicapper that increases to 26.2%, over double the expected return.

Whatever analysis or picks you use, good luck for future plays, but remember no one can deliver instant wealth - if say they can - stay well clear - they are lying!!

I for one would like to see more of our picks.....

Pacifica · 01-14-11, 04:00 PM

Sorry, but there are no games that stand out today - plenty of games tomorrow, as I said, I certainly will not force any plays.

BOL if you play any tonight.

Cera1 · 01-19-11, 01:10 PM

Do you still plan to post plays? I was just wondering since I would really like to give your picks a shot.