Happy 2011 year to everyone, as you might have seen, I've been making threads with my plays in last few days and with new year I'm making one thread for each sport, for easier tracking and searching picks purpose. GOOD LUCK!
-
-
Game: Indiana State at Evansville (Sunday 1/2 2:00 CET)
This one is all about home court advantage, which will be definitely a huge X-factor for this game. These two teams are similar when it comes to quality but guests have been a lot better against the spread so far. Still, these two teams are really relying on their home crowd a lot as Evansville is 4-1 SU at home, while Indiana State 1-4 SU on the road and 1-2 SU on neutral venue (so 2-6 SU away from home). Hosts are 3-0 SU in last three home games and I think that their offense, which is averaging 76.8 points per game at home, will have an easy day on the offensive end against struggling opponents defense. Adding the fact that Indiana State will be most probably still without important starter Jake Kelly (doubtful for today), Purple Aces should have also a quality edge over Sycamores. Hosts are projected to be -3/-4 favourites at home against this opponent, so with Kelly's injury, I'd say it's a -6/-7 game, so -2 has got lots of value. Should be an easy winner, really.
Pick: 550 Evansville -2 @ 1.952Comment -
Game: Western Kentucky at Arkansas State (Sunday 1/2 2:00 CET)
Arkansas State is rock solid at home so far, being unbeaten with 5-0 SU and however four of these games were against very weak sides, they showed in a game against South Alabama that they're good and are capable of winning easily (they covered -9 spread, winning by 12 points). Generally they're mediocre with 6-8 SU but 5-4 ATS ain't that bad at the end. On the contrary Western Kentucky is a big disappointment as they've been expected to be a better team than they really are. 5-7 SU is not embarrassing, however 3-8 ATS is bad. In last game they got crushed against Louisville by 32 points and that's because of their weak defense. Red Wolves also possess better bench because Hiltoppers have only two competitive players on the bench right now and will be struggling in foul trouble situation (which should be a case as opponents are averaging 24 fouls per game against Arkansas State at home). -4 spread isn't high, especially that it easily may be covered even in case of a tight game and late free throws for hosts because Red Wolves have got very solid 72.9% free throws made.
Pick: 556 Arkansas State -4 @ 1.952Comment -
2-0 +1.904Comment -
Game: Northeastern at James Madison (Tuesday 01/04 1:00 CET)
I'm really surprised that this kind of a game because hosts are class above the guests in here and spread should be in double digit surely. Northeastern is a big disappointment this season, being only 4-8 SU and they're in terrible form, going 2-8 SU in last ten. It's mainly cause of soft defense, which is allowing more than 70 points per game, however having a mediocre schedule so far. They've also got troubles in the paint, being outrebounded in five out of last six games. Frontcourt should be a X-factor for this game because James Madison have been dominating in this factor and won 41-34 battle under the rims against very solid Kansas State in last game, beating them as 4 points underdogs. This team is generally in rock solid form, having four-games winning streak, including also a road win over South Florida, so adding they're 7-4 ATS for the season, I expect them to cover -8 number in here.
Pick: 1 unit on 714 James Madison -8 @ 2.000Comment -
Game: Missouri State at Creighton (Wednesday 01/05 2:00 CET)
These two teams have both started season in good fashion, already notching ten wins mark, so with home-court advantage, which is a huge factor including these teams, I'm betting on hosts as 2 points underdogs. They're 10-4 SU so far, going 9-1 SU at home, so with six straight wins lately and 3-0 ATS over last three games, they should be slight favourites in here. Missouri State have been superior generally, being 10-3 SU, however it's mainly due to big home performance, as they're just 1-3 SU on the road. Missouri have already been in similar spot, having a tight road game against the spread and generally struggled in these. What's more Creighton is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten meetings between these two, so another one cover may easily happen. Guests are overrated due to bigger name but on the road they're rather average against legit opponents.
Pick: 1 unit on 526 Creighton +2 @ 1.917Comment -
Does creighton play fast? I saw Missouri State play OK State and they had no transition defense to speak of.Comment -
YTD 2011: 2-2, -0.096
Already played UC Irvine -6 @ 1.909, will post preview later onComment -
Yesterday won, have no time for previews again. Today play is Pepperdine -9 @ 2.000Comment -
YTD 2011: 4-2, +1.813
Today the play is NORTHERN IOWA -3 @ 2.020. Hope for third straight winner.
Comment -
Texas A&M -7 @ 2.000
Tennessee -1 @ 2.010
Texas -8 @ 1.952 (2 units)Comment -
Houston +8 @ 1.909Comment
