bet the better FT shooting team if they are better than 10% from the line better than the opponent. This applies for all games lined between a PK and 4. No numbers since I have no NCAA basketball database but FT shooting is critical. Look at the National Championship last year (Butler and Duke). Also, look at the collapses from poor free throw shooting teams (Memphis). I understand this is very elementary but I love to throw out systems to people and see if they find anything.
-
-
I hope someone looks into this ... seems like it could be interestingComment -
This could be good if you also looked at the officials. If you get refs who are known for calling games tight, you know there will be a lot more free throws shot and thus your edge increases dramatically.Comment -
Have to wait for a while, though, to get a decent sample size.Comment -
Interesting. Maybe do some back testing.Comment -
hard to do back testing I feel like because how would you know what free throw percentages teams were going into specific match ups from the past?Comment -
Somebody with a database should look into it and maybe they find something good.Comment -
Well we might as well start the good old fashion way to make a system if we don't have any prior data.
Wed 11/24:
Cleveland St v Akron (-3)
VCU v Tenn (-2)
Central Mich v ill-Chicago (-3)
Lol Marymount v Cal Poly (+1.5)
any others?
we can add and take off of this list as lines move and more lines become availableComment -
I doubt a system like this would work. If we assume that the teams are fairly equal (lines between 0-4), then if one team is much weaker in free throw shooting, they are probably superior in another area of their game (i.e. rebounding, defense, etc). Basically what I am saying is that the line is made with this factor taken into account.Comment
