Harlee71 Nov. 9-15

[harlee71]

My keeping track of plays thread.

I like to keep track of my plays, post about them and when needed bitch and moan about them. I don't want them all over the place cluttering up the boards. So this is my new home for now with a new thread every Tuesday while keeping an overall record. This will be an all sports thread, but I will be based in the NCAAB forum. Feel free to post your thoughts and chime in as we try to win. I have thick skin, so criticism is fine, but leave the hating at the door if you don't mind. We are all on the same team!

BOL!! And away we go...

[harlee71]

Had a tough time with bankroll management in my $300 to $3000 thread. I had good picks, but went over boad making to many plays and with wager size. These are not my only funds, I just decided I needed to work on cutting losses. Seems like the BIG WINS never would out pace the BIG LOSSES. When this happens it makes it really hard to get a head.

So no more big goals. My goal is to be profitable more days, better money management and only playing my top plays. Action is fun, but top plays are another thing. I will put a fixed number on my action plays relevant to my bankroll size. My top plays will be the same but for a different percent size.

Each unit is 3% of BR.

Top plays will be either a T1 =1unit ,T2 =2unit or T3 =3unit per play. This makes no one play more than 10% of bankroll at anytime.

Action plays will be either A1= 1%, or A2= 2%.

This is the plan!! I don't want to limit my amount of plays at the moment, but by using this outline I will do better with $$ management.


Now onto the plays!

[harlee71]

Not a great looking night out there but here are a few that I think are better than the others.

Here are the ones I was throwing around with Shaggy.

First the NCAAF game.

My Capping breakdown is short and sweet. Miami beats the teams they are supposed to both home and away. BG does not. Miami is playing well and BG well, They are not. If this was a Saturday game, I would pass on it. For me this will be a low action play.

Miami OH -2.5 Small

Parlay -2.5 and Under small and hope for the best.


CBB

T2 bet here
I like Maryland -14 against CofC. CofC is almost identical,defense wise, to the Seattle U team they beat on monday, and I expect the same kind of game.

NBA is mess tongiht. Nothing super solid that I see. Some of my thoughts.


It's hard for me to bet against GS right now. They are hot! I see GS winning tonight and being blown out in CHI and losing to the bucks. Just how I think it will play out.

OKC wont lose back to back to back at home. And with Portland coming next, I think this might be a walk for OKC.

Jazz and clipps might not be bad plays. But they are tough ones!

SA is due to take a game off soon. They will probably tank either this game or Next against 6ers.

Jazz probably wont win again tonight, but there is a good chance they will stay within the 11.

NHL

Buffalo ML This thing is sinking fast so I wont put a number on it.

BLues Puck line if you want to gamble +260 is not a bad offering.

Leafs ML +150 is good enough odds to play this one.

Top play Ducks Puck Line +200 Isles have been horrible bad terrible! It is worth the shot!

[harlee71]

Bigger card than I thought, but kept the bets in line. I threw in my Longhorns for action. I think this might be it unless I can put together a parlay for the night.

Ticket # 33553230-1
11/10/2010 8:00 PM - (EST)
Football College
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Miami Ohio
Spread -3 -105 for Game
Risking $7.00 To Win $6.67 USD

Ticket # 33553230-2
11/10/2010 7:05 PM - (EST) Basketball NBA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Houston Rockets/Washington Wizards
Total Points UNDER 210½ -110 for Game
Risking $5.00 To Win $4.55 USD

Ticket # 33553230-3
11/10/2010 7:35 PM - (EST) Basketball NBA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Golden State Warriors
Money Line +135 for Game
Risking $7.00 To Win $9.45 USD

Ticket # 33553230-4
11/10/2010 8:05 PM - (EST) Basketball NBA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Philadelphia 76ers/Oklahoma City Thunder
Total Points OVER 201 -110 for Game
Risking $5.00 To Win $4.55 USD

Ticket # 33553230-5
11/10/2010 7:00 PM - (EST)
Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Maryland
Spread -13½ -110 for Game
Risking $20.00 To Win $18.18 USD

Ticket # 33553230-6
11/10/2010 9:00 PM - (EST)
Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Texas
Spread -20½ -110 for Game
Risking $7.00 To Win $6.36 USD

Ticket # 33553230-7
11/10/2010 7:05 PM - (EST) Hockey NHL
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Buffalo Sabres
Money Line +115 for Game
Risking $7.00 To Win $8.05 USD

Ticket # 33553230-8
11/10/2010 7:05 PM - (EST)
Hockey NHL
Wager Type:Straight Bet
St Louis Blues
Spread -1½ +255 for Game
Risking $5.00 To Win $12.75 USD

Ticket # 33553230-9
11/10/2010 7:35 PM - (EST) Hockey NHL
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Toronto Maple Leafs
Money Line +145 for Game
Risking $5.00 To Win $7.25 USD

Ticket # 33553230-10
11/10/2010 10:05 PM - (EST)
Hockey NHL
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Anaheim Ducks
Spread -1½ +200 for Game
Risking $15.00 To Win $30.00 USD

[shaggy3000]

man i enjoyed the one thread thing there for a minute. everything on one page. i might just have to jump over here and say who i like.

[harlee71]

the do a combo next time! LOL

[shaggy3000]

ha. i follow your picks more than mine. hey i took Maryland but where is the game? its not even listed on espn anymore....

[harlee71]

ESPN U

Maryland not taking enough advantage of the height inside. They should be nailing the post up everytime down. 6-10 guys up against 6-6 and 6-8 guys.

[shaggy3000]

finally found it. we came back nicely going into halftime. now lets get a lead and extend it

[shaggy3000]

damn it miami. you cant drop that pitch. not after such a great drive!!!!!!!!!

is it raining there?

[harlee71]

Finally scored. Should have went with my gut and the under. LOL

[shaggy3000]

took them in the 2nd quarter too and all the sudden theyre afraid to tackle

[harlee71]

2nd night in a row I had the Jazz lean and didnt have the nuts to play it.

[harlee71]

Ticket # 33559161-1
11/10/2010 9:00 PM - (EST)
Basketball NCAA
Wager Type:Straight Bet
Texas
Spread -8 -110 for 2nd Half
Risking $11.00 To Win $10.00 USD

[harlee71]

Td miami!

[harlee71]

Need the Ducks to do some work. Need +2 goals for the game!

6-3-1 on the night so far.

[shaggy3000]

went under 52.5 in the 4th quarter of the kings game... (4.5u)

they havent scored that much in one quarter yet. one more my way!!!!!!!!!!!!

[harlee71]

Selane wiffed on a breakaway. I am gonna need an empty net goal to win my last bet for the night.

[harlee71]

went under 52.5 in the 4th quarter of the kings game... (4.5u)

they havent scored that much in one quarter yet. one more my way!!!!!!!!!!!!

BOL Shaggy!!

[harlee71]

No dice. Length of the ice roller went just wide left. Oh well. Get them tomorrow night

6-4-1 for the night.

[shaggy3000]

wow. sportsbook is running a promo on the Army/Navy game. if you place a bet today they will double your winnings on the bet. i know its a month away but i might have to start capping that game.... let me know if you already have a lean or know some historical info on the game.

[harlee71]

Whats the spread?


I predict you are going to win 4.5 units!

You found the sweet spot.

[harlee71]

Just for the record. GS will not win in Chicago tonight and it wont be close. No line yet. Maybe the GS backers will bring the price down for us.

This is my rule about road teams on long road trips, later in the trip vs home teams during a home stand.

I would say this holds up about 75% of the time.

[shaggy3000]

Whats the spread? I predict you are going to win 4.5 units! You found the sweet spot.

Navy -7. thats the only bet they are offering it Promo on. otherwise i would take the over asap and take my chances.

[shaggy3000]

o yeah. this is a nice setup you got over here. could really get use to it. real nice vibe!
that late night bet saved my night. ( for the first time in a week + ) but that was a nice +4.5 umits into the account. would have been nice to have stuck to my gameplan of getting Miami at 2.5 but you live and learn. o nice call on Texas.

[shaggy3000]

10 units on the FALCONS -1 tomorrow. all the people i follow say Falcons. i hate them but im taking them and hopefully all the way to the bank.

[harlee71]

6-4-1 -$2

Betting small amounts are going to drive me nuts! LOL


Have some WINNERS today!!!!

So far 1 NBA and 3+ good NHL leans.


I smell money! I got a feeling that tonight is gonna be a good night!

[shaggy3000]

yeah theyre no fun. thats why all i want to do is make a pick or two a night now that i feel real good about and see if i can pick at 80% for a while. that would be real fun. watching the stack grow all the way into the New Year....

[harlee71]

About half my roll is out there tonight, so we need another good run. Let's get 'em boys!

BOL!!!



33566931-1 11/11/2010 7:03 PM Money Line $5.25 $5.00
Football - 105 Baltimore Ravens -105 for Game

33566931-2 11/11/2010 7:03 PM Spread $5.75 $5.00
Football - 107 Pittsburgh U -6 -115 for Game

33566931-3 11/11/2010 7:03 PM Spread $5.50 $5.00
Football - 109 East Carolina +1 -110 for Game

33566931-4 11/11/2010 7:03 PM Spread $5.50 $5.00
Basketball - 505 Los Angeles Lakers -3 -110 for Game

33566859-1 11/11/2010 7:01 PM Parlay $10.00 $210.61
Football - 105 Baltimore Ravens +1 -110 for Game
Football - 107 Pittsburgh U -6 -115 for Game
Football - 109 East Carolina +1 -110 for Game
Basketball - 504 Chicago Bulls -7 -115 for Game
Basketball - 505 Los Angeles Lakers -3 -110 for Game

33566638-1 11/11/2010 6:54 PM Teaser $20.00 $30.00
Basketball - 501 Boston Celtics +12 for Game
Basketball - 501 Boston Celtics/Miami Heat over 181½ for Game
Basketball - 504 Chicago Bulls -2 for Game

33566531-1 11/11/2010 6:49 PM Money Line $7.50 $12.75
Hockey - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning +170 for Game

33566531-2 11/11/2010 6:49 PM Total $5.50 $5.00
Hockey - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning/Washington Capitals over 6 -110 for Game

33566531-3 11/11/2010 6:49 PM Spread $7.50 $17.25
Hockey - 10 Atlanta Thrashers -1½ +230 for Game

33566531-4 11/11/2010 6:49 PM Money Line $7.50 $11.25
Hockey - 17 Dallas Stars +150 for Game

33563335-1 11/11/2010 2:25 PM Parlay $5.00 $12.63
Basketball - 504 Chicago Bulls -6½ -115 for Game
Basketball - 503 Golden State Warriors/Chicago Bulls under 214 -110 for Game

[shaggy3000]

not betting anything til i see some of the falcons game. kinda big for me.... but i like Pitt tonight. think everyone is huge up on uconn from the other weekday game. and UAB only hit the over 63 like never in one of their games. but Eact car does it like every game it semms like. o think miami covers tonight but not by much. just out cause of revenge and coming off a loss. but the under looks hella solid there. waiting.... might play a halftime line in basketball or try to catch a late bet.

[harlee71]

Dont miss out on my Bulls special!!! Its a winner!

[shaggy3000]

damn. had to move stuff for the parents yard sale. but might be able to get a good halftime line

[harlee71]

After all that. I forgot to bet the bulls straight up. Kids are killing my brain cells!

[harlee71]

I did play it for pts though! Bulls by 20 at the moment.

[shaggy3000]

me and the boss looked earlier today at work. in the NBA last night the dogs went 10-0 ATS. not counting moneyline. crazy!