Astro's NCAA Plays

[astro61200]

Astro, what's up with this thread? You should delete that post that runs all the way across the screen so people don't have to scroll over to read everything.

It doesnt on mine, but I think I was able to edit the post you were talking about... if not tell me which one

Plays for today, first I've had in about 10 or 11 days:

3* Valparasio Crusaders -12.5
Valpo is the real deal, this team is very solid and have shown it all season, they play terrific defense, holding opponents to 39.3% shooting, and good offense, 47.4% FG... they feature a lot of experienced players and have beatten teams on the road that aren't pushovers (Wright State and Detroit in their last 2 games)... they are 5-0 ATS their past 5 games and have won by an average margin of 11.4 points in those games... now they return home to face an Evansville squad that is improving, but still is nothing to write home about.. the Purple Aces are coming in having won their past 2 games, over Austin Peay and Princeton, but have struggled on the road (last road game they dropped to Buffalo by 19)... they allow too many open shots, 46.2% FG against, and struggle to put the ball in the basket, 43.3% and 58.4 PPG, they get out-rebounded and just won't be able to keep up with Valpo... Crusaders should roll in this one

2* Central Florida -13
1* Oregon -31

[astro61200]

Rough day yesterday, going 0-2-1, but I wasnt too disappointed with the losses since the games were all close and the ATS outcomes were decided right at the buzzer, that tells me my reads arent horrible off on games, for instance I didnt say take Valpo -12.5 and then they lose by 8, or take Oregon -31 and they win on a last second shot... the games were right on the line until the very end, just went the wrong way... but cant have winning days everyday, look to bounce back on Wednesday

3* Valpo -12.5 - L
2* Central Florida -13 - P
1* Oregon -31 - L

Week 1: November 25 - December 1 - 20-9-1, +19.70 Units
Week 2: December 9 - December 15 - 0-2-1, -4.40 Units
YTD ATS - 20-11-2, +15.30 Units

[The Seer]

u fixed the thread.

[Cougar Bait]

u fixed the thread.

Yeah, it was doing that on my computer too...but it wasn't all the time. It was strange. Now it seems to be fixed.

[astro61200]

2* Wisconsin -14
Rebounding, that what is going to give Wisconsin the blowout victory tonight... the Badgers average 39.3 rebounds a game, while their opponents average only 27.5, this is good for a difference of nearly 12 rebounds a game.. Wisconsin-Milwaukee averages 33.8 boards a game, while opponents snatch off 34.4 themselves, a difference of -0.6 rebounds a game... The Badgers are going to get oppurtunity after oppurtunity tonight to score points, and when a team outrebounds another by so much it creates fouls, sometimes accidental and other times out of frustration.. I expect the Badgers to outrebound the Panthers by a wide margin, attempt many more free throws and hold Wisconsin-Milwaukee to around 38% shooting.. Badgers in a blow out

1* Xavier -19
1* Massachusetts +5
1* New Orleans +5

[fredtheturd]

Save for Xavier, these picks are looking good so far! I think I'll start keeping an eye on you. Keep it up!

[astro61200]

Save for Xavier, these picks are looking good so far! I think I'll start keeping an eye on you. Keep it up!

Yep shoulda took the points with Cincy in a rivalry... especially that many, but went 3-1 on the day... had Ohio aswell but took it off at the very last minute.. bad move

[astro61200]

3-1 on the day, taking Xavier minus all of those points was stupid, just as stupid as dropping Ohio from my card at the last second... but was a winning day so cant complain too badly

Week 1: November 25 - December 1 - 20-9-1, +19.70 Units
Week 2: December 9 - December 15 - 3-3-1, -1.50 Units
YTD ATS - 23-12-2, +18.20 Units

2* Wisconsin -14
Rebounding, that what is going to give Wisconsin the blowout victory tonight... the Badgers average 39.3 rebounds a game, while their opponents average only 27.5, this is good for a difference of nearly 12 rebounds a game.. Wisconsin-Milwaukee averages 33.8 boards a game, while opponents snatch off 34.4 themselves, a difference of -0.6 rebounds a game... The Badgers are going to get oppurtunity after oppurtunity tonight to score points, and when a team outrebounds another by so much it creates fouls, sometimes accidental and other times out of frustration.. I expect the Badgers to outrebound the Panthers by a wide margin, attempt many more free throws and hold Wisconsin-Milwaukee to around 38% shooting.. Badgers in a blow out

1* Xavier -19
1* Massachusetts +5
1* New Orleans +5

[astro61200]

1* Davidson -30
Some may think this is too many points to give up, especially after Xavier last night, but I don't believe it is... Davidson is a very good squad, their record doesnt indicate it because they have played a brutal schedule as of late... North Carolina and Duke on a neutral court (which really wasnt that neutral), UCLA and Charlotte on the road... they've lost their last 3, but now they play the bad Citadel team, do you know how easy this game will seem for them after 3 games against Duke, Charlotte and UCLA? They'll breeze thru this game, outrebound The Citadel by a large margin and should win by 35+... if you dont feel safe giving up this many points, take the 1st half line at -16.5

1* Mississippi State -5.5

[astro61200]

Rough day, 0-2, but both were only 1* so shouldnt have lost too much... will update the totals tomorrow

Get on Drake -2.5... They are very good, their only loss was on the road at Saint Mary's, a very tough team and place to play... that loss was by only 6, now they play a not so great Iowa squad that is just completely outclassed

If I'm not on tomorrow to update my card, think of Drake as a 3* play... hopefully I will be here to update it tho

[astro61200]

Winner with Drake... will update the totals Sunday, hopefully, won't be home at all Saturday, will be in Indy for the Wooden Traditional... so here are all of the plays that may cross my mind for the day:

4* Charlotte -3
Hofstra is terrible... 1-5 on the season, their sole win coming against a 5-4 Manhattan squad... their losses include at Holy Cross (their best loss), at St Francis NY, at Fordham then at home against UNC Wilmington and Stony Brook... there is no excuse for losing to Stony Brook... Charlotte comes in at 6-2, off a home win agaisnt SIU a week ago, and over Davidson 10 days ago... I will go on and say all of the teams Charlotte has played so far are better than Hofstra, and finally playing a true road game, after playing in the Virgin Islands, shouldn't phase them too heavily... 49ers roll

3* New Mexico -4.5
3* Utah -5
2* UAB +7
2* Oklahoma -3
2* Massachusetts -15
1* Purdue -1
1* Xavier -3
1* Ohio +19
1* Southern Illinois -5.5

Since I'm not going to be home I tried to cover the entire day without missing any, you may want to take a * off each play as you see fit (which is why there are so many games), since I'm trying to cover the entire day here because I wont be able to place any bets besides in the morning before I leave for Indy...

[astro61200]

I will figure up my totals tonight, will be playing 2* North Carolina -19 tonight at Rutgers

[astro61200]

Winner with UNC

4* Charlotte - L
3* Drake - W
3* Utah - W
3* New Mexico - W
2* UAB - W
2* Oklahoma - W
2* North Carolina - W
2* Massachusetts - L
1* Purdue - W
1* Xavier - L
1* Ohio - L
1* Southern Illinois - L
1* Davidson - L
1* Mississippi State - L

7-7 (+3.90 U) past few days, since last updated record and total brings YTD stats to:

Week 1: November 25 - December 1 - 20-9-1, +19.70 Units
Week 2: December 9 - December 15 - 9-10-1, +.40 Units
Week 3: December 16 - December 22 - 1-0-0, +2.00 Units
YTD ATS - 30-19-2, +22.10 Units

[astro61200]

3* Tulane -6
2* Tennessee-Martin -2
1* Eastern Kentucky -11

[astro61200]

Week 1: November 25 - December 1 - 20-9-1, +19.70 Units
Week 2: December 9 - December 15 - 9-10-1, +.40 Units
Week 3: December 16 - December 22 - 2-2-0, +1.70 Units
YTD ATS - 31-21-2, +21.80 Units

3* Tulane -6
2* Tennessee-Martin -2
1* Eastern Kentucky -11

[astro61200]

Early leans, games I possibly could go with tomorrow:
Kansas -10
Marshall +15.5
Florida International +5
Arkansas LR -8
Houston -3.5
LBSU -2
New Orleans +6.5
SE Missouri +2.5
Murray State -6.5
Arizona State -15
Washington -11

[astro61200]

2* Kansas -10
2* Arizona State -15
2* Tulsa -3.5
1* Houston -4
1* LBSU -1.5
1* New Orleans +6.5

[astro61200]

Week 1: November 25 - December 1 - 20-9-1, +19.70 Units
Week 2: December 9 - December 15 - 9-10-1, +.40 Units
Week 3: December 16 - December 22 - 5-5-0, +0.20 Units
YTD ATS - 34-24-2, +20.30 Units

2* Kansas -10
2* Arizona State -15
2* Tulsa -3.5
1* Houston -4
1* LBSU -1.5
1* New Orleans +6.5

[astro61200]

5* Old Dominion -4.5
The Monarchs are a very solid squad, their record does not indicate such, only at 6-4, but that is because of the top-tier competition they have played: at Clemson, NC vs UNC, NC vs Louisville, home against Georgetown are their 4 losses, their wins have not been agaisnt stellar teams, but pretty solid teams none the less, plus they kept it close in 3 of their 4 losses until the final 4th of the game... Richmond, on the other hand, has played one good team, Memphis, a few decent teams in USF and VCU then a bunch of garbage teams such as Rice and Norfolk State... the Spiders haven't kept it close with any of the 3 good/decent teams I listed, and even lost to some of the garbage squads aswell... they have lost their past 2 games by a combined 34 points and have struggled mightily with rebounding (-10.9 RPG margin)

I expect ODU to cover this spread easily, as they will out-rebound the Spiders by probably 15-20 rebounds and get so many shot attempts with offensive rebounds that it will make it nearly impossible for the Spiders to win or keep it close... Monarchs win by 14+

4* Arizona -3
In Arizona's 2 losses, they have lost by a combined 7 points... those losses were at home to 7-2 Virginia, by 3, and on the road at #3 Kansas, by 4 in OT, in Arizona's 7 wins, which include #9 Texas A&M, at Illinois, a 19 point beat down of Fresno State, win over 7-4 NAU, and a 26 point throttling of 5-2 CS Fullerton, the Wildcats have looked stellar... they have won on the road and went to OT against one of the best teams in the nation

However UNLV has not looked nearly as good, while they have a nice pretty 7-2 record, their top wins include Montana State, Fresno State, Nevada and NAU... not really the same type of skill level that Arizona has been hanging with, and beating... they also have a 20 point loss at home to Louisville, without David Padgett

I see Arizona jumping out to a lead around 5 or 6 minutes in and building it more and more as the game goes on, UNLV making a little run to cut it within 7 or 8 later in the game, then getting cold and end up losing by 12 or more

3* Illinois-Chicago -6.5
2* Memphis -14
1* New Mexico -9.5

[tab]

Arizona will cover easily

Arizona will finally get an easy win on the road after playing some stiff competition on the road (Kansas, Purdue). It will all be too easy for Arizona that will keep moving up in the rankings which each victory.

5* Old Dominion -4.5
The Monarchs are a very solid squad, their record does not indicate such, only at 6-4, but that is because of the top-tier competition they have played: at Clemson, NC vs UNC, NC vs Louisville, home against Georgetown are their 4 losses, their wins have not been agaisnt stellar teams, but pretty solid teams none the less, plus they kept it close in 3 of their 4 losses until the final 4th of the game... Richmond, on the other hand, has played one good team, Memphis, a few decent teams in USF and VCU then a bunch of garbage teams such as Rice and Norfolk State... the Spiders haven't kept it close with any of the 3 good/decent teams I listed, and even lost to some of the garbage squads aswell... they have lost their past 2 games by a combined 34 points and have struggled mightily with rebounding (-10.9 RPG margin)

I expect ODU to cover this spread easily, as they will out-rebound the Spiders by probably 15-20 rebounds and get so many shot attempts with offensive rebounds that it will make it nearly impossible for the Spiders to win or keep it close... Monarchs win by 14+

4* Arizona -3
In Arizona's 2 losses, they have lost by a combined 7 points... those losses were at home to 7-2 Virginia, by 3, and on the road at #3 Kansas, by 4 in OT, in Arizona's 7 wins, which include #9 Texas A&M, at Illinois, a 19 point beat down of Fresno State, win over 7-4 NAU, and a 26 point throttling of 5-2 CS Fullerton, the Wildcats have looked stellar... they have won on the road and went to OT against one of the best teams in the nation

However UNLV has not looked nearly as good, while they have a nice pretty 7-2 record, their top wins include Montana State, Fresno State, Nevada and NAU... not really the same type of skill level that Arizona has been hanging with, and beating... they also have a 20 point loss at home to Louisville, without David Padgett

I see Arizona jumping out to a lead around 5 or 6 minutes in and building it more and more as the game goes on, UNLV making a little run to cut it within 7 or 8 later in the game, then getting cold and end up losing by 12 or more

3* Illinois-Chicago -6.5
2* Memphis -14
1* New Mexico -9.5

[astro61200]

Will add up totals after tonight's plays:

4* Southern Miss -27
3* New Orleans -12
1* Saint Mary's -9

[astro61200]

Taking the rest of the week off, my plays lately have all been winning until the very end when the team backdoors me.. over and over and over again, so need a few days off to cool off

[astro61200]

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

0-3 on the day, -8.8 units on card (tho up for the day if this teaser hits personally)

Thanks to New Orleans -12 being up 13 with 40 seconds left, winning by 9
Southern Miss -27 being up 29 with 15 seconds left, won by 25
Saint Mary's -9 being up 10 with 3 seconds left, winning by 7

****
THIS
****

Taking a week off on my CBB card, glad bowl season is here

[regularguy]

I thought those were excellent picks today. Unbelievably nasty finishes. You'll get it back when you return ... no question in my mind.

Good luck on the bowl games, astro.

[louisvillekid]

The percentages are based on the amount of money going on each team, not the people betting on them... for instance if you have a team with a 65% spread trend (which is listed above) then for every $100 bet, $65 is on that team...

So for the Yale game:



Fairfield was getting $93 for every $100 bet, and the line dropped from -2.5 to -2... Yale covered and the books made a killing

The game closed with Fairfield getting 93% of the spread money, and 87% of the moneyline money

where can you find a service that has that info? what i mean is, the percentage of money going one way or the other that you quoted. every service i know can only give you the percentage of bets going one way or the other, NOT the money going each way.

you never answered this. i'm still curious.

[Ballin]

After going back and reading your post, I looked at sportsbook.com definitions of spread and moneyline and do believe they are talking about money and not people who are betting a given line. Anyone can correct me if I am wrong but that is how I took it.

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/trends.php

[astro61200]

you never answered this. i'm still curious.

http://www.sports.com/vegaslines/lines_nfl.html

That froze last week and hasn't been updating since tho, so hard to track it... they're using a new link http://www.sports.com/sportsbook/trends.php but that doesnt update very quickly and has most of the CBB lines as off

[louisvillekid]

Ballin, i guess you were answering my question, so thank you. like you said, according to sportsbook they state that the % is the way the money is going, but other sites have always stated its just the % of bets. like i look at sportsbookspy sometimes, and they will give you the total # of bets placed with all the books they are connected with, but they state that they can't give you the actual dollar amount going each way,because the books won't allow it. like you can't find out if the higher % of bets are just $5-50, and the lower % has $5000-10000 bets.

[astro61200]

Alright, with the new year time to resume...

5* Old Dominion - L
4* Arizona - P
3* Illinois-Chicago - W
2* Memphis - L
1* New Mexico - W
4* Southern Miss - L
3* New Orleans - L
1* Saint Mary's - L

5.5+2.2+4.4+3.3+1.1=16.5

16.5-3-1=12.5

20.3-12.5=7.8

34+2=36
24+5=29
2+1=3

New Record: 36-29-3, +7.80 Units

[astro61200]

2* Drake -4
1* New Orleans -5
1* SE Missouri State -4

[PLUSLINES]

Good luck Tonight!

[astro61200]

2* Drake -4 - W
1* New Orleans -5 - L
1* SE Missouri State -4 - W

Wednesday: 2-1, +1.90 Units
YTD Record: 38-30-3, +9.70 Units

Right now just updating record, may go more indepth with how each unit size bet is doing and things like that, but that will have to wait until the weekend or sometime next week before I have time

[astro61200]

Early Leans for Thursday, January 3rd, 2008
UConn -1.5
Notre Dame -2.5
Cleveland State -8
Illinois-Chicago -4
Wright State -2.5
UNT/TSU Over
Villanova -3
Marquete -11.5
Utah State -10.5
Cal State Northridge +2.5
Georgia Southern +13
Northern Colorado -8
Northern Arizona -1
Vanderbilt -25

Now, obviously, I am not going to play all of these... I probably wont even play half, maybe 4 or 5 at the most... but I am just narrowing down the games I have to look at, in-depth, tomorrow so I can isolate a few good, solid plays... instead of looking thru all the games, which on a normal Thursday isnt hard but this Thursday is a busy one

[astro61200]

4* Cal State Northridge -1
The Matadors are a solid team, they post a 8-3 record with a pair of decent road wins at Cleveland State and Pepperdine... the reason I like them in this game tho is because of their defense and rebounding.. they hold opponents to 41.6% from the field, 34.5% from 3 and outrebound them by 3, Cal Poly, on the other hand, shoots only 38.9% from the field and a lowly 29.9% from 3, add this in with the Mustangs' defense is rather lacking, their averages almost fall exactly in line with Northridge's season averages on offense, and the 'Stangs get outrebounded to the tune of 5 boards a game... just cant pass up a team laying only 1 point at a subpar conference rival... Matadors win this one by 9 or more

3* Northern Arizona -2.5
I've been on Northern Arizona a lot this season, mainly because of their solid rebounding... if a team can get second chance points while limiting the other squads 2nd and 3rd looks they usually can come out ahead... today they are only laying 2.5 or 3 points to a very bad Eastern Washington team... the Lumberjacks of Northern Arizona shoot better from the field, and from 3, than the Eagles, while also holding opponents to a much lower field goal percentage and 3 point percentage... while NAU's FT% is lower, they attempt more a game, and outrebound teams by 6 boards a contest, compared to EWU's -5 rebounding margin... I fully expect the Lumberjacks to cruise to a victory here, this line just seems way too low to me

2* Illinois-Chicago -4
1* Connecticut -3

Also may add later:
Georgia Southern, UNT/TSU Over (When the total finally comes out)

[astro61200]

Added: 3* North Texas/Troy State Over 163