The 411
The entire universe believes this total will go UNDER tonight at between 128-129 depending on your shop. I say nay. Why? Why with all the numbers slamming the UNDER? Coach K. Duke is coming off a game against West Virginia in which they shopt just 9 free throws. That was 50% or so less than any other game they played in the tournament. Everyone is hounding the outside games. Duke made 13 threes against a West Virginia defense that looked lost. Does that mean Butler will be? Of course not, but have they seen any team that can rebound and kick it out the way Duke does + have shooters ready to rock the three? No. They may tighten this up as the game goes on, but Duke should have opportunities for put-backs and those spot up threes off the offensive glass once again. They won't hit as much as they did against the Mountaineers, but I also think Butler will shoot a little better than they did against Michigan State - although that might be debatable against this Dukle defense. But I really think this comes down to foul shooting. Both teams shoot it well [73% plus] and Butler has been getting to the line around 20 times per game in the tournament and there's just a feeling in my gut that says Coach K is going to badger the refs until he gets the calls if needed or has devised a game plan that will see some more dribble drives to potentially work to the line. I have a magic number tonight that will equal cash on the OVER at 127.5.
30 made free throws.
See you on the other side.
The entire universe believes this total will go UNDER tonight at between 128-129 depending on your shop. I say nay. Why? Why with all the numbers slamming the UNDER? Coach K. Duke is coming off a game against West Virginia in which they shopt just 9 free throws. That was 50% or so less than any other game they played in the tournament. Everyone is hounding the outside games. Duke made 13 threes against a West Virginia defense that looked lost. Does that mean Butler will be? Of course not, but have they seen any team that can rebound and kick it out the way Duke does + have shooters ready to rock the three? No. They may tighten this up as the game goes on, but Duke should have opportunities for put-backs and those spot up threes off the offensive glass once again. They won't hit as much as they did against the Mountaineers, but I also think Butler will shoot a little better than they did against Michigan State - although that might be debatable against this Dukle defense. But I really think this comes down to foul shooting. Both teams shoot it well [73% plus] and Butler has been getting to the line around 20 times per game in the tournament and there's just a feeling in my gut that says Coach K is going to badger the refs until he gets the calls if needed or has devised a game plan that will see some more dribble drives to potentially work to the line. I have a magic number tonight that will equal cash on the OVER at 127.5.
30 made free throws.
See you on the other side.
