Why I'm waiting 2nd Half for main bet.

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  • Snowball
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 11-15-09
    • 30062

    #1
    Why I'm waiting 2nd Half for main bet.
    ok so Butler's Howard is a game-time decision. We have to think he will play. I don't think the concussion he has is serious enough to keep him out of this game. But will he be 100% ? on to Duke.. how are the refs going to treat them ? If Butler is called for defensive fouls, Duke could really hurt them on the FT's. Yet that is up to the refs. How will Butler's 3-point shooting be ? Which team will be hotter than the other ? I've backed Duke up to here but something's holding me back. There are no NBA games tonight. Why ? For this. Vegas wants everyone to bet this game.
    The amount of money pouring into Duke is enormous. You can imagine their rake if Butler wins. With NBA off, this factor is multiplied. I see no value in Duke ML at this point, and there's nothing to tease them with ! (no NBA). I don't care for the totals and props tonight. Can't feel them like I did the WV game.
    I want to see how the first half shapes up. If my small Butler ML looks like it's dead, who cares..2nd half will be the main bet.

    If somehow Butler is even or leading after the 1st, the Duke chalk will be huge. Say Butler is up 4. Duke will be laying 9+. If Duke is up 6, it will be around a pk. That's the same as the opening line but with more info on game.
    If Duke is up 12, Butler will be laying points.

    so here's my plan. If Butler is getting 6+ in 2h, I take Butler.
    if Duke a 2h dog because they have a big lead, I take Duke.
  • JamesBrown
    SBR MVP
    • 04-07-08
    • 3860

    #2
    Good luck Snowball. I like the idea of plyaing the 2H as well here.
    Comment
    • BiffTFinancial
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-29-09
      • 22670

      #3
      i too am waiting for the 2H. just don't see much value in any of the options. sucks going into the title game without a play, but it would suck worse to play Butler 1H +4 or 1H under and already be down 3.3 units at half. BOL tonight. i'll be on the edge of my seat to play the 2H, and i like your take.
      Comment
      • aman86
        SBR MVP
        • 08-29-09
        • 3115

        #4
        over big for me and duke -7, would hate to be on the sidelines after a 70pt 1h total, we'll see, gl tho and when in doubt a no play is a great play, respect your discipline at least
        Comment
        • Snowball
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 11-15-09
          • 30062

          #5
          cool Biff and JB. come on back here for the 2h brainstorming.

          meanwhile we just
          Comment
          • Goat Milk
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 03-24-10
            • 25850

            #6
            Very smart.

            Don't think you should have your mind made up already of who your going to bet? You should probably watch the game and see what each team has done well/poorly and if you believe each has an opportunity to fix/not fix their mistakes.
            Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
            Comment
            • BettingWizard
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 11-28-09
              • 6522

              #7
              butler has covered 14 straight 2nd halves
              Comment
              • THE PROFIT
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-27-09
                • 17701

                #8
                Id say when Duke is up by 14 at the half, Butler -1 could be a decent 2H play
                Comment
                • Snowball
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 11-15-09
                  • 30062

                  #9
                  I caved. put 50 units on Duke ML and 25 units on Duke to score 20 pts first -180.
                  Saving 25 units for the half.
                  Just can't see the Butler thing. Been a long year. Duke is the way to go.
                  Comment
                  • BiffTFinancial
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-29-09
                    • 22670

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Snowball
                    cool Biff and JB. come on back here for the 2h brainstorming.

                    meanwhile we just
                    definitely.
                    ........
                    heh heh, just saw you went ahead with coupla plays. nice. i want to play 1H under or Butler 1H, but i'm just going to wait for 2H. will stop back by.
                    Comment
                    • Mac4Lyfe
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-04-09
                      • 48408

                      #11
                      I'm taking Duke 2nd half irregardless of the line... LARGE
                      Comment
                      • mundane
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-25-08
                        • 3592

                        #12
                        dunno jack about ncaab, but here's a crapshoot - butler +4 1h!

                        i probably will bet against the team that has foul trouble/s coming into 2nd half.

                        bol to all!
                        Comment
                        • Snowball
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 11-15-09
                          • 30062

                          #13
                          unreal.. Scheyer was advancing on his own, nobody around him 18-18 and they called a foul on him that pissed off Coach K .. the announcer didn't even know what it was.
                          Cost me that first 20 bet.

                          getting close to 2h
                          Comment
                          • Rbyrne
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-10-10
                            • 3054

                            #14
                            looks like the games gonna be close at the half.......
                            Comment
                            • Wolf40
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-09-10
                              • 954

                              #15
                              what are you guys thinking 2H? I'm thinking Butler sticks around this one. they don't panic often and don't seem outmatched
                              Comment
                              • Rbyrne
                                Restricted User
                                • 02-10-10
                                • 3054

                                #16
                                Duke is -4 for the 2nd half....il take that
                                Comment
                                • Rbyrne
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 02-10-10
                                  • 3054

                                  #17
                                  the total opened at 69.5 for the 2nd half......
                                  Comment
                                  • Snowball
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 11-15-09
                                    • 30062

                                    #18
                                    I'm on Duke -4.5
                                    Comment
                                    • BiffTFinancial
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-29-09
                                      • 22670

                                      #19
                                      pass. great season, enjoy the game.
                                      Comment
                                      • coinpusha
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-24-08
                                        • 147

                                        #20
                                        Duke is playing at Butler's tempo, this game will be decided by <4 points one way or the other
                                        Comment
                                        • Snowball
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 11-15-09
                                          • 30062

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BiffTFinancial
                                          pass. great season, enjoy the game.
                                          thanks man. The game sure is flying by.

                                          At -4.5 with a 1 pt lead equiv. -5.5 instead of -7 so i got 1.5 pts better than opening line - that was the point in waiting.
                                          Comment
                                          • Rbyrne
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 02-10-10
                                            • 3054

                                            #22
                                            i got duke at -4...and it has since moved to -4.5 at my book....wat u think about the total
                                            Comment
                                            • suckerforparlays
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 02-15-10
                                              • 4536

                                              #23
                                              This is gonna be a tight one know way this turns into a blowout
                                              Comment
                                              • BiffTFinancial
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-29-09
                                                • 22670

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Snowball

                                                thanks man. The game sure is flying by.

                                                At -4.5 with a 1 pt lead equiv. -5.5 instead of -7 so i got 1.5 pts better than opening line - that was the point in waiting.
                                                logic is rock-solid, and i think 2H goes Duke and over. gonna keep these 3u in my pocket and root for Butler. BOL to all 2H.
                                                Comment
                                                • mundane
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-25-08
                                                  • 3592

                                                  #25
                                                  ok cashed my crapshoot butler 1h +4. now onto 2h...

                                                  im siding with the refs and all the non-calls... took duke -4.5 2h.
                                                  Comment
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