Unc/ri o/u 151

[THE PROFIT]

This total has me intrigued. The average for the season for both of these teams is spot on 146.5. Closest I've seen 2 teams all season on their season scoring averages, both 146 and change.

BUT, late in the season, I mean in tournament play, they are averaging lower totals, which is a good indication of how they are playing now.

RI tourney play (conference & NIT)
163
110
101
140
168
151
Average=138.8

UNC tourney play (conference & NIT)
120
152
150
115
Average=134.3

Their season averages, 3 points lower than this total of 151
Their combined average of tourney play, 15 points below 151

[THA_DIESEL]

Lean over, but why even mess with the total...

ICE just put 10.5k on Rhode Island

[THE PROFIT]

Now, look at the opponents each team played in the tourney where they went over that total & see how that opponent matches up to UNC or RI. I just feel the total seems to be a little high but still investigating

[THE PROFIT]

Lean over, but why even mess with the total...

ICE just put 10.5k on Rhode Island

I saw that. It scares me, and I'm not easily scared

[HoulihansTX]

I'm about to put 2 units on the Under. Blind. The total is way too high. Also the total has been bet up a couple of ticks, so value on the over is gone.

[THE PROFIT]

That's the way I see. I thought it was high at 149, but the public just keep pushing it. I know RI is a very fast paced team, but UNC will have to slow that down some if they expect to be in the game, and I sure as shit dont see a blowout here by either side.

I watched Dayton play the other night and they race up & down the court, & the total on their game is only 142

[THE PROFIT]

My play on Tuesday is under 127 in the pacific game. So Im thinking of playing an 8pt 3 team tease

UNC+9
under 159
Pac/MizzSt under 135

[HoulihansTX]

Never tease totals.

[THE PROFIT]

Why? With 8 points you can usually play both sides & hit

[HoulihansTX]

You are not increasing your chances of winning, by a great percentage. '

Spreads yes, but totals are complete guesses on the part of the books. Usually they are fairly weak numbers, and that why they are subject to more movement than spreads.

Thats why touts like RAS beat the books betting totals at such a consistent basis.

[Jive]

UNC doesn't slow it down. That has been their problem this year. The Boys in Blue played breakneck when they didn't have the ballhandlers to do it, which is why they turn the ball over like mad. They called themselves being more deliberate towards the end of the season, but the only games they have more than a few possessions been below their average pace (# of possessions) were the season finale against Duke (a blowout in which Duke significantly slowed it down in the 2nd half) and the NIT quarterfinal game against UAB.

The question in my mind isn't how fast the game will be played; it is whether shots will be attempted and made. RIU causes turnovers, which is Carolina's bugaboo, so UNC might struggle to reach an adequate amount of shots for the over. However, RIU is in the bottom third in the nation at keeping opponents off the offensive boards, plus they aren't so hot and preventing teams from making shots when they can get them, so that might even out.

Tough call for me.

[HoulihansTX]

North Carolina just cant hit shots. Graves cant hit of late, and Drew never had a jumper. They will need a lot of lay ups, and put backs to get over the total.

[sweethook]

unc should rule the boards = points

[THE PROFIT]

RI has a RPI of 40 compared to 92 for UNC. I can see why so many people backing RI here, really the better team, but you just cant count UNC out.