St. Mary's and the Points..... you read it right.

[chiliv5]

Well I got gashed by many last night calling for the KY/Cornell Under and that was .....

So, tonight, I again am going against the mounds of people calling for a Baylor route! Looking over Baylor's season there isn't much IMO to be impressed with. They beat Texas twice... that turned out to be worthless. They did beat Tx AM at home, and Xavier at the start of the season. So that is good, but not near great.

They lost to these teams:
Alabama
Colorado
Ok St
Tx AM
Kan St

Now before the board lights up tearing me up and making the same case against St. Mary's hold the phone.

St Mary's lost to these teams:
Vanderbilt
USC
Gonzaga
Portland

My point is this- looking this over why are people making this a Baylor blowout? I do not see anything that would lead me to believe St. Mary's can't hang with this team. St Mary's has beaten Richmond and Nova two obviously solid ball clubs they were not "suppose" to beat being the underdog. They are playing very solid basketball. Baylor had to have Sam Hou St miss 48 three's to win that game. Keep in mind Sam Hou St did not have any size in that game...... And ODU played them tight. St. Mary's has a legit bigman, and multiple shooters.
I am not seeing the route or blowout on the Baylor side. I am on the points, and would not be one bit surprised to see them win outright.

Anyone with me tonight?

[iceminers26]

I don't think it will be a blowout either but do feel Baylor wins by 7+

good luck with the play

[beerman2619]

Its all about match ups and Baylor length will give St. Mary's plenty of problems. Look for Samhan to get into early foul trouble.

[mv09]

Its all about match ups and Baylor length will give St. Mary's plenty of problems. Look for Samhan to get into early foul trouble.

Adjusted Height Ratings:
Baylor 1st
St. Mary's 10th

Not too far behind...

[uanl]

Adjusted Height Ratings:
Baylor 1st
St. Mary's 10th

Not too far behind...

but behind nothetheless....

[uanl]

i also think the length will give marys trouble..not to mention the size of baylor to contend with st mary's big man, forgot his name, ohman or something lol sorry...

[Sunde91]

Baylor is supposed to be a consensus board pick that will go the other way! You ruined the vibe!

[onlooker]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/402939-sweet-16-upset.html

[Naarmo]

St Marys can pull an upset here,im on it.

[mv09]

i also think the length will give marys trouble..not to mention the size of baylor to contend with st mary's big man, forgot his name, ohman or something lol sorry...

Samham

Baylor's Average Height 78.0
St. Mary's Average Height 77.9

Baylor's Effective Height +6.2
St. Mary's Effective Height +4.2





Baylor's Effective Height Center +2.3
St. Mary's Effective Height Center +2.5

Baylor's Effective Height PF +3.9
St. Mary's Effective Height PF +1.7

Baylor's Effective Height SG -0.9
St. Mary's Effective Height SG -0.1

Baylor's Effective Height PG -0.6
St. Mary's Effective Height PG+0.4


Height advantage is a non-factor.








The Question is how will St. Mary's do vs Baylor's zone defense

Will it cause them to turn the ball over?
17.4% - 31st in the nation

Can they hit the shots Baylor's defense dictates them to take?
St. Mary's shoots:
52.5% from 2's - 22nd in the nation
41.0% from 3's - 6th in the nation
76.3% from Free Throws - 6th in the nation




This game will go down to the last possession of the game.
I think Baylor wins (55% confidence)

TAKE THE POINTS

[TheAccountant]

I think this game stays close, and Baylor covers late..I do think this will fall right around the spread though

I don't see the DD blowout people are calling for

[chiliv5]

Wow.......... St Mary's ever played basketball before? Can Baylor miss? On the very wrong side of this one....

Baylor backers.....




Ouch

[mv09]

DAMN!

What was St. Marys' doing all week? Did anyone tell them that Baylor runs a zone defense? If they spent more time practicing and less time tweeting that they are going to win the championship then maybe.. JUST MAYBE, they could have kept it close until the end.

St. Mary's has always been a better second half team, but 30 pts? insurmountable.

[70kgman]

Looking over Baylor's season there isn't much IMO to be impressed with. They beat Texas twice...

Don't know why everyone seems to keep saying stuff like this. You cant just look at scores. Baylor are at the top of just about every significant statistical category that matters despite having one of the toughest schedules in all of college basketball. They are better than just about anyone when they play their A game. I picked Baylor to win the championship from the beginning and am sticking to it.

[pronk]

Wow...

[ezmoney]

BAYLORS defense has shut down St MARYS outside shooting, hope it stays UNDER 142!

EZ