Is This Parlay a Safe Bet?

Wolf40 · 03-20-10, 10:48 AM

I'm on those 2 but I will bet that 1 or 2 of the these games will lose straight up. KSTATE, BUTLER, NOVA and BAYLOR

I'm just hoping its BUTLER and ST MARY's

crazymonkey · 03-20-10, 10:49 AM

I just cant find a reason that either of these teams dont win. too much talent

JuicedUp · 03-20-10, 11:00 AM

Looks good!

fsu2010 · 03-20-10, 11:02 AM

I really don't like this parlay. You do realize that if you're taking the Kansas State ml you are getting owned. BYU is 45-50% to win this game, and you're laying -200 (aka Kansas St being 66% to win)? Not to mention you're getting raped even more because it's a parlay. This is the biggest -EV situation you could put yourself in :/

iceminers26 · 03-20-10, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by Wolf40

I'm on those 2 but I will bet that 1 or 2 of the these games will lose straight up. KSTATE, BUTLER, NOVA and BAYLOR I'm just hoping its BUTLER and ST MARY's

greenshark11 · 03-20-10, 11:08 AM

kansas state will win tonight. im with you on that

skrtelfan · 03-20-10, 11:10 AM

I think BYU is the play.

fsu2010 · 03-20-10, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

I think BYU is the play.

Agreed. I have 2.5 units on BYU +170.

crazymonkey · 03-20-10, 11:14 AM

just don't see how byu wins this. you have any good reason on picking them?

LT Profits · 03-20-10, 11:14 AM

I think that parlay is safe myself, although I prefer Kansas State -4 and Baylor UNDER.

LT Profits · 03-20-10, 11:15 AM

I think BYU is a very underrated team, but they could not have asked for a worse second round matchup here. Wildcats should win this handily.

LT Profits · 03-20-10, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by fsu2010

I really don't like this parlay. You do realize that if you're taking the Kansas State ml you are getting owned. BYU is 45-50% to win this game, and you're laying -200 (aka Kansas St being 66% to win)? Not to mention you're getting raped even more because it's a parlay. This is the biggest -EV situation you could put yourself in :/

More like 35-40%, but still no value at -200, you are right there. K State -4 is the play.

talnted · 03-20-10, 11:19 AM

k state is a pretty good play, but i havnt looked enough into the baylor game to be sure of anything

HoulihansTX · 03-20-10, 11:20 AM

BYU is the play????

This is Utah St. Vs Tex A&M all over again.

There are too many physical mismatches for K St. to exploit.

BYU doesn't suck, but they are facing a far superior team in this matchup.

I'm really surprised that Kenpom doesn't agree.

Jive · 03-20-10, 11:21 AM

I just went with Baylor, Kentucky, Kansas, and the Nuggets. Only pays 1.26 to 1, but I feel that is good value as I can't see any of these 4 losing. Except maybe Kentucky, since I've got a bet on the ACC winning less than 7.5 games. Someone will screw that up for me. I can get double-hosed in this game, so it will probably happen.

LT Profits · 03-20-10, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

BYU is the play????

This is Utah St. Vs Tex A&M all over again.

There are too many physical mismatches for K St. to exploit.

BYU doesn't suck, but they are facing a far superior team in this matchup.

I'm really surprised that Kenpom doesn't agree.

I am surprised that kenpom has BYU rated 7 in the country!

I don't even think they are the best team in their conference (which reminds me that New Mexico +131 is a great play today).

fsu2010 · 03-20-10, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am surprised that kenpom has BYU rated 7 in the country!

I don't even think they are the best team in their conference (which reminds me that New Mexico +131 is a great play today).

Jesus dude. I used to like things that you say, but that's just stupid. You think New Mexico is a better team than BYU? lolol. Obviously Kenpom has BYU overrated, but Nex Mexico is a joke. Washington is going to clean them up. New Mexico +131 is a horrific play IMO.

Jive · 03-20-10, 12:06 PM

On his own blog Ken says that his system overrates BYU and that is one of the anomalies of the math he is using.

fsu2010 · 03-20-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Jive

On his own blog Ken says that his system overrates BYU and that is one of the anomalies of the math he is using.

Thanks captain obvious. But they aren't THAT overrated.

LT Profits · 03-20-10, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by fsu2010

Jesus dude. I used to like things that you say, but that's just stupid. You think New Mexico is a better team than BYU? lolol. Obviously Kenpom has BYU overrated, but Nex Mexico is a joke. Washington is going to clean them up. New Mexico +131 is a horrific play IMO.

Yes, New Mexico is much better rounded than BYU is and the head-to-head sweep confirms it. Also, the Mountain West is better than the Pac-10 this season, and there is no reason for Washington to be favored in that game. I think books are overreacting to Washington's 8-game winning streak, but 7wins inside the Pac-10 means nothing to me, and beating Marquette means nothing either given the performances of the mid-level Big East teams in this tournament.

Also, Washington did not have a quality non-conference win all year (granted, I am writing this from memory, but I'm pretty sure I'm right), while New Mexico beat California (another Pac-10 team, albeit at home) and Texas A&M in Texas (virtually a road game).

MrTwiz · 03-20-10, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

BYU is the play????

This is Utah St. Vs Tex A&M all over again.

There are too many physical mismatches for K St. to exploit.

BYU doesn't suck, but they are facing a far superior team in this matchup.

I'm really surprised that Kenpom doesn't agree.

Im with u on this, BYU has 1 outstanding gaurd, while kstate has 2. Samuels is def a mismatch for BYU, they have no answer for him IMO

remmy358 · 03-20-10, 03:31 PM

there are no safe plays and especially not butler.