Dukebluejms Picks Thursday

[Dukebluejms]

Is this the best time of year or what? I'm so glad its finally here. Conference tourneys are good, but they just don't compare. I've been on a little roll lately and I like a lot of the matchups today so I will have quite a few picks today.

First play of the day is... BYU -5. I believe my write up speaks for itself when it comes to this game so I won't explain further.

Next early play is... Under 121 ND/ODU. Surprisingly it is ODU that I am worried about busting this under play, not ND. ND has slowed their pace to Ivy league style lately, and while ODU also plays a slow it down game (300th in tempo rank), they have been scoring more as of late (73ppg in last 5). This is going against the recent trends for ODU where the over is 7-1 in their last 8, but I just see this being a grind it out game. Also, it is an early morning game and its a tourney game so players will come out tight.

More to come... As always criticism/suggestions are very helpful.

[Dukebluejms]

Adding... Over 149 Baylor/Sam Houston State. SHS is an outside shooting team, and Baylor has struggled this year with perimeter defense. Now, Baylor does have a huge advantage inside, so there will be no offensive rebounds to be had in this game for SHS. SHS has no defense to speak of, so I see Baylor scoring in the high 80's at least. I also expect SHS to keep this close by knocking down their 3's. SHS has beaten Auburn on the road and hung tough with UK, so they won't be shell shocked. As many of you have pointed out the line movement is crazy, so I stayed away from the side, but the total seems very low for these two teams. As long as nerves aren't a factor it should be in the 154 range.

Adding... Richmond -2. I have discussed this game in other forums and basically Richmond will be able to control the pace of this game. Also Richmond has played bigger teams very well this season (i.e. UF, Wake, etc).

[Dukebluejms]

Tracking:

1. BYU -5
2. Under 121 ND/ODU
3. Over 149 Bay/SHS
4. Rich -2

2-0. I can't believe BYU came back. JIMMER!!

[whatsgood5]

Good luck man, great start on the under of the ND game, keep up the good work!

[Dukebluejms]

Good luck man, great start on the under of the ND game, keep up the good work!

Thanks. BOL to you

[Dukebluejms]

Tracking:

1. BYU -5
2. Under 121 ND/ODU
3. Over 149 Bay/SHS
4. Rich -2

Adding... UTEP +2.5. Sorry, I thought I added it earlier, I know the game has already started.

The Miners have the size and athleticism that could allow them to dominate this game. Butler has limited size with only one true post player in Howard to match the size UTEP can run out there in Caracter at 6'9, Moultrie at 6'11, and Britten at 6'11. However, UTEP's best perimeter player Randy Culpepper could have trouble getting open looks because of the defensive abilities of Ronald Nored (All-conf defensive team). Overall, I see the size being too much. This is not the prototypical Butler teams of old that score strictly from the perimeter. They have to score inside to be successful and they are giving up way too much size. It should be close but I like UTEP to cover.

[Dukebluejms]

For Tonight:

6. UNLV +1
7. Marq/Wash over 141

[Dukebluejms]

Adding... KU/Lehigh over 146. Both teams can score but I see KU getting into the 90's on an overmatched Lehigh team that gave up 70 per game on the season.

Adding... Against my better judgement, Wake Forest +5.5. This is strictly a gut play.

[Dukebluejms]

Tracking:

1. BYU -5
2. Under 121 ND/ODU
3. Over 149 Bay/SHS
4. Rich -2
5. UTEP +2.5
6. UNLV +1
7. Marq/Wash over 141
8. KU/Lehigh over 146
9. Wake +5.5
10. NM -8

[Dukebluejms]

5-5 day

After a great start I got over confident and played too many in the afternoon. Luckily I got it back in the later games. Better day tomorrow.