Overlooked Stat that Stongly Favors Pine Bluff Tonight

chase hardy · 03-16-10, 09:33 AM

I like pine bluff +4. Gl tonight LT.

Wilforth · 03-16-10, 09:34 AM

Pine Bluff ML may worth a bite then.

Chi_archie · 03-16-10, 09:38 AM

interesting info

rm18 · 03-16-10, 09:45 AM

I don't see how that stat favors Pine Bluff, but the fact that they started the season 0-11 might

ajdupuis · 03-16-10, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

First of all, this game looks like a toss up by looking at both the raw stats and at Pomeroy. In a game that is this close, this game may come down to free throws. Well, even there, both teams are shooting in the 60s from the line, so on the surface, there is no edge there either. BUT....

UAPB has a FTA/FGA ratio of 49.1 percent, which is 10th best in the entire country. Winthrop has a FTA/FGA ratio of 35.4 percent, which ranks 237th.

Look for all the extra points Pine Bluff is expected to get from the line with the clock stopped to add up.

Interesting....

LT Profits · 03-16-10, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by rm18

I don't see how that stat favors Pine Bluff, but the fact that they started the season 0-11 might

You don't see how 10 extra free throws can make a difference in an otherwise even game?

Chi_archie · 03-16-10, 10:09 AM

but isn't all that factored into the line as well as kenpom's projections?

I mean if team A scores 70 points a game against the exact same schedule as team B, who scores 66 points a game. but team A scores 60 points a game on dunks 9 points a game on 3's and 1 ft a game
but team B scores 40 points a game off 2 point fg's, 6 points a game off 3's and 20 points off free throws....

does Team B have the advantage because they have the free throw edge? especially given that some of variables that affect a team's free throw #'s will be totally out of their control????

referees
how much the other team's coach bitches, and how respected he is? (Bobby Knight in his hay day prob had refs call alot more for his team than against) ect

onthewhat · 03-16-10, 10:12 AM

I like Winthrop to advance

LT Profits · 03-16-10, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

but isn't all that factored into the line as well as kenpom's projections?

I mean if team A scores 70 points a game against the exact same schedule as team B, who scores 66 points a game. but team A scores 60 points a game on dunks 9 points a game on 3's and 1 ft a game
but team B scores 40 points a game off 2 point fg's, 6 points a game off 3's and 20 points off free throws....

does Team B have the advantage because they have the free throw edge? especially given that some of variables that affect a team's free throw #'s will be totally out of their control????

referees
how much the other team's coach bitches, and how respected he is? (Bobby Knight in his hay day prob had refs call alot more for his team than against) ect

The reason it is significant here is because the teams are practically dead even in all the other stats, and the stat I mentioned is the only one where either team has a significant edge.

Back to the original question of whether Pomeroy already factors this into his projection, well I hope so since he picks Winthrop by 2, meaning that I cash.

However, if the pace of the game is faster than UAPB's usual pace and the FTA/FGA ratio stays constant, then the Pine Bluff score may exceed Ken's number.

Powderguy · 03-16-10, 10:43 AM

First team to get 45 points wins this snoozer.

Chi_archie · 03-16-10, 10:45 AM

LT, I had another kenpom related question for ya here

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/387945-question-about-kenpom-lt-anyone.html

ZBOIZ · 03-16-10, 11:05 AM

Guys guys Pine Bluff will lose!! I know the Swac and every team in that conference is basically D2 talent. Winthrop by 15+!

Brock Landers · 03-16-10, 11:23 AM

Winthrop is a tournament tested team, they've been there before. Go with the experience, even if its just the coach.

70kgman · 03-16-10, 11:30 AM

I like PB. Winthrop drastically overachieved in the conference tournament which made them look alot better than they really are. Winthrop are probably one of the worst 5 shooting teams in all of D1, and they couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives.

ET_BUCKEYES · 03-16-10, 11:34 AM

That ratio gets all jacked up by the 2 games PB played late against MVSU. PB and MVSU went to FT line 79 times in the tournament game. In 3 tournament games for PB they went to FT line 85 times and the other teams shot 86 FT's. Winthorp only gave up 13.6 ppg from line and PB gave up 18.4.

Salmon Steak · 03-16-10, 01:02 PM

how do teams this bad get in and teams like vt and msst dont i would much rather watch the latter

stealthyburrito · 03-16-10, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Salmon Steak

how do teams this bad get in and teams like vt and msst dont i would much rather watch the latter

auto bid system, kinda sux but i guess every conf. needs to be repped, and they need some easy fodder for the best schools

314cashes · 03-16-10, 01:19 PM

pine bluff it is

CappinTerp · 03-16-10, 01:35 PM

Good post LT.!!

mart59a · 03-16-10, 01:39 PM

Thanks for the info on Bluff...totally not familiar with them.

suckerforparlays · 03-16-10, 02:26 PM

Pine Bluff Started 0-11 for a reason look at who they played compared to who wintrhop played outta conference lol

DaColts · 03-16-10, 02:35 PM

Even if you play 11 great teams and lose them all how is this good for you team? The teams they lost to aren't that great either. 3 of the 11 are in the tourny but lost all 11 games by 166 PTs how is that a good thing

MBENZ · 03-16-10, 02:41 PM

These 2 may not hit a 100 between them,under looks good.

dollarbill · 03-16-10, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by suckerforparlays

Pine Bluff Started 0-11 for a reason look at who they played compared to who wintrhop played outta conference lol

Nov 13 - L at Colorado, 72-88Nov 15 - L at Denver, 56-75Nov 18 - L at Texas-El Paso, 52-70Nov 27 - L at Akron, 65-68Nov 30 - L at Arizona State, 57-74Dec 5 - L at Michigan, 53-67Dec 13 - L at Oklahoma State, 66-81Dec 16 - L at Georgia Tech, 53-65Dec 19 - L at Missouri, 70-88Dec 21 - L at Kansas State, 76-90Dec 28 - L at Oregon, 53-73

Clearly out of their League but now........

Duke 83
Bluff 43

MrTwiz · 03-16-10, 02:57 PM

Their out of conference schedule is fugin insane! Who plays that many top tier schools? Well not top tier, but from the big 6 conf. All on the road also

mcbaseball10 · 03-16-10, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

Guys guys Pine Bluff will lose!! I know the Swac and every team in that conference is basically D2 talent. Winthrop by 15+!

Zboiz or LT, who do we listen to?

LT, thanks for the info. We are all going to need this type of little info to try to bet these matchups with very little edge.

dollarbill · 03-16-10, 03:41 PM

76 points @ Kansa St

and Bluff outscored K-St in 2nd half 47-46.!

Sure it was 2nd team but their celebration will be short lived with Duke on deck

Powderguy · 03-16-10, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by Salmon Steak

how do teams this bad get in and teams like vt and msst dont i would much rather watch the latter

Quit watching b-ball if you need to ask these questions, seriously. Learn the damn format.

awhitejackson · 03-16-10, 04:27 PM

Wow good looking out LT.... I think Ima take a shot on it

Rick22 · 03-16-10, 04:37 PM

Thanks LT - good luck

Wilforth · 03-16-10, 05:01 PM

We'll soon know the outcome.

sportsguy04 · 03-16-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by Salmon Steak

how do teams this bad get in and teams like vt and msst dont i would much rather watch the latter

And you bet on college basketball? Oh my..

OverUnder · 03-16-10, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Powderguy

Quit watching b-ball if you need to ask these questions, seriously. Learn the damn format.

+1

hanco21 · 03-16-10, 06:35 PM

very interesting....thanks lt