Parlay riding on Portland +7

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Parlay riding on Portland +7
    Posted this in the NBA forum:

    I have a 19:1 parlay riding on Portland +7. Not a large investment so it doesn't pay out a truckload, but it is what it is. Nice situation to be in, except for the fact that I was going to go big on it as an individual play as well.

    So what do I do now? I'll hedge I guess, though I'm pretty confident in the Blazers. Ironically, I was in the exact same boat a few weeks back -- needing a Portland cover to complete a parlay -- and hedged with Utah the night the Blazers pulled off that epic collapse at home.

    So do I go 40% again like I did last time to be safe? Less?
  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #2
    That's the Trail Blazers, BTW -- not the Pilots.

    Comment
    • Ralphie1412
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-29-08
      • 13963

      #3
      Then you should have a nice size bet on Denver -7......no excuses.
      "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
      Goat Milk
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by Ralphie1412
        Then you should have a nice size bet on Denver -7......no excuses.
        I'm pretty confident in the DEN number, but I think I'm still going to hedge about 40 percent. Hate to do it, but I have to. 60% is better than 0.

        Any angle in playing the halves? I don't even know why I'm asking that, considering like I said last time, POR was up 20-plus on Utah at home and found a way to lose. Had I waited to see in that game, I might have just stuck with Portland and gotten burned.
        Comment
        • Ralphie1412
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-29-08
          • 13963

          #5
          when ever im in your position I hedge it exactly half and dont even watch the game. Free money. If the parlay pays 1000 I put 500 the other day and add 5 to my bankroll before the games even tip.
          "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
          Goat Milk
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            Originally posted by Ralphie1412
            when ever im in your position I hedge it exactly half and dont even watch the game. Free money. If the parlay pays 1000 I put 500 the other day and add 5 to my bankroll before the games even tip.
            Unfortunately, the parlay's only worth about 1/8th of that. Wish I'd gone bigger, but after Villachoka burned me on a five-teamer yesterday (4-1), I got conservative and went mostly MLs.
            Comment
            • clarkd32
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-15-06
              • 863

              #7
              i'd wait till halftime and see what options you have.
              Comment
              • Ralphie1412
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-29-08
                • 13963

                #8
                Originally posted by clarkd32
                i'd wait till halftime and see what options you have.

                terrible advice
                "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                Goat Milk
                Comment
                • tcarn01
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-27-09
                  • 1993

                  #9
                  take the other team and buy points. .you might hit both....
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Ralphie1412
                    terrible advice
                    Like I said, had I waited until halftime in the POR game a few weeks ago, I might have just let it ride or played less than 40% because the Blazers were dominating that game. They choked about as bad as any team has all season, and I was simply thankful I had hedged close to half.
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by tcarn01
                      take the other team and buy points. .you might hit both....
                      I was thinking about that, but the chances are pretty remote.
                      Comment
                      • KingKolzig
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-02-10
                        • 5550

                        #12
                        wait until halftime. i do this all the time with parlays and by waiting until halftime more often then not im able to find middle ground as opposed to being way out of it..............you could take a small bet Denver -3.5 1st half, then if they dont cover. say Portland actually leads at half, then you will have a HUGE middle ground...........if Dever goes cover 1st half, and say leads by 8, then you win the Den 1st half bet and could still win the parlay
                        Comment
                        • mvp123
                          SBR MVP
                          • 07-24-06
                          • 1736

                          #13
                          why do ppl play parlays than ask to hedge ...hedging is gar money yes but u always lose out in your true odds and value ...think about it , if you would win the first leg as a single game then keep rolling profit over till next game , etc you will see exactly what i mean but i do understand its nice to gar money no matter what
                          Comment
                          • hhsilver
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 06-07-07
                            • 7376

                            #14
                            I don't like the idea of hedging --- your just making it harder to come out ahead if you play parlays.
                            Comment
                            • Kirchner
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 10-31-09
                              • 247

                              #15
                              get it girl
                              Comment
                              • sportsguy04
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 10-21-08
                                • 11885

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Kirchner
                                get it girl
                                Comment
                                • Snowball
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 11-15-09
                                  • 30060

                                  #17
                                  I got my mind made up come you can get it, get it girl
                                  any time... tonight is fine.. say whaaat ??

                                  Funk Classic

                                  Comment
                                  • KingKolzig
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-02-10
                                    • 5550

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by mvp123
                                    why do ppl play parlays than ask to hedge ...hedging is gar money yes but u always lose out in your true odds and value ...think about it , if you would win the first leg as a single game then keep rolling profit over till next game , etc you will see exactly what i mean but i do understand its nice to gar money no matter what
                                    yes but if your bankroll is in trouble and you need some sure cash, then you hedge
                                    Comment
                                    • beefcake
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-26-09
                                      • 14029

                                      #19
                                      always hedge
                                      Comment
                                      • THE PROFIT
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-27-09
                                        • 17701

                                        #20
                                        How many games are playing on Monday?
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #21
                                          I hedged at about 35-40%. Obviously in hindsight, wish I'd gone more, but what can you do. At least it's a profit, and it just would've been another last-game parlay loser had I not (I'm very good at those).
                                          Comment
                                          • 2daBank
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-26-09
                                            • 88966

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                                            I hedged at about 35-40%. Obviously in hindsight, wish I'd gone more, but what can you do. At least it's a profit, and it just would've been another last-game parlay loser had I not (I'm very good at those).

                                            i wouldnt have did more than that, if i actually do a parley and its down to last team for arguments sake lets go with Ralphies number for a grand payout, no damn way im splitting the difference, if im doing that what the hell i pick the team for in the 1st place i would probably go $250 back the other way on a G of coarse it also depends on the game ive been known to bet the whole thing on the other team just depends on my mood i guess as ive let several ride as well....really depends on the payout and how i feel about the game that is left
                                            Comment
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