Friday

No coincidences · 03-05-10, 12:17 PM

By 19? Really?

I really don't like taking teams that are playing their first conference tourney games against teams who played yesterday -- especially in a Rivalry game.

BOL, though.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 12:37 PM

no coincidences,

first off, my power ratings are very down on Drake. they are abysmal in PomDef, Rebounding, Off Reb Diff and Assist Diff. the only things that they are good/decent at is FT%, 3PT% and TO Diff. N Iowa is solid across the board - not the most athletic team, but no major weaknesses and they don't make a lot of mistakes. on power ratings alone, i have NIU about 14 points better (i know that's more than StatFox, others, which i also take into account).

second, post-power-ratings (below the line), i have NIU another 4-5 points. you and i differ in that i think that playing last night was BAD for Drake. they were down like 10 with 8 minutes left and came back, but they expended a lot of energy. they were amped up after than game and got no rest last night. i deducted for that and gave NIU credit for being better road/neutral court team.

so, it was part my own power ratings (which i don't claim to be superior to anyone's; i'm on version 16 of them since i started 2 years ago, and my results show that i still have more work to do), part the fact that we disagree on how to account for last night. i started to pass just because i rarely give DD and did last night with Pitt and lost, but i like how NIU operates sort of like Wisconsin and chokes teams out. i also like that they don't give dumb fouls, which i think would be the worst thing they could do today against a tired opponent who is good on the FT line.

NIU has covered againt Drake both times this season, so my valuation of the teams does seem clearly off. that said, i hate that i'm down 10.5 already. also, good trends on big faves in MVC quarters (not a big trend player, but doesn't hurt). i could be wrong. i have been way too much lately, but if i am, it won't be for lack of effort. BOL to you today.

No coincidences · 03-05-10, 01:05 PM

I will say this: playing at night and then this afternoon may work to your benefit and negate my usual theory about a team having an advantage for already playing once. You also might be right about the way they had to come back last night just to advance. So again, BOL. No play for me, but if I did, I'd still slightly lean Drake +10 because I don't like giving up that much chalk.

capri5421 · 03-05-10, 01:08 PM

What's up buddy, hope all's well. What A day today, hoop's on all day. I didn't play No. Iowa, I just don't feel it, I'm probably wrong. But Good Luck today. I'll be on-line ALL day. Wife at the Mall(shopping), son in school. So let's go, big day.GL.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 01:29 PM

well, no coincidences, at the outset, it's hard to say that i saw it better than you. let's see those dead legs, Drake.

capri5421 · 03-05-10, 01:31 PM

Your so right, dead legs. I'm pullin for you.

No coincidences · 03-05-10, 01:45 PM

I expect UNI to slowly take over and win, but 10 might be a stretch from here.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 01:46 PM

me too, no coincidences. wondering if NIU 2H might be worth a look...

No coincidences · 03-05-10, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

me too, no coincidences. wondering if NIU 2H might be worth a look...

I'd take it up to -7 or so.

JamesBrown · 03-05-10, 01:54 PM

Took it at -7.5 (-105) Gonna be a close one...but wanted some early degen action.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 01:58 PM

think i'm going to pass on NIU 2H -7. i've been cold and missed my 2H play last night. wiser move, in hindsight, might've been holding off on this game given the DD spread and waiting for the 2H and essentially getting 4.5 free points. live and learn.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 01:59 PM

BOL James Brown! if i didn't already have NIU at -10' for the game, i'd be with you. here's hoping we're both happy in an hour or so.

CappinTerp · 03-05-10, 02:01 PM

Biff,nice write-up on your cappin methods,its good to see when a capper does the work.

No coincidences · 03-05-10, 02:01 PM

Not offered at my book.

JamesBrown · 03-05-10, 02:02 PM

I hear ya! Lets go for a 15+ point 2H romp and get winners all around.

jnyg · 03-05-10, 02:06 PM

I'm on Drake+7.5 small just for kicks

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 02:07 PM

thanks, cappin terp. if there's one thing that i've learned from religiously reading SamsNCharge's thread, that's it....

damn straight, JB. cmon Panthers.

JamesBrown · 03-05-10, 03:05 PM

Nice wins!

Maddhatter · 03-05-10, 03:10 PM

Great call

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 03:14 PM

woot woot!

needed a nice W to start the day. too bad i didn't have the stones to play NIU 2H, but not going to complain about 1-0 +3u.

pondering Bradley +3'....

whatsgood5 · 03-05-10, 03:59 PM

Nice start man!

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 04:05 PM

thanks, whatsgood! BOL to you today.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 04:19 PM

adding

3* Hofstra -6

i just can't give enough points today. what a square. white-hot Dutchmen by 12-13.

capri5421 · 03-05-10, 04:20 PM

Great win buddy.

HoulihansTX · 03-05-10, 04:20 PM

Lang is on Hofstra.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 04:24 PM

thanks, capri.

are you kidding me, houli? i had no idea. no fade lang thread or anything. fk me. so much for keeping the momentum going...

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 05:27 PM

adding

3* Cleveland State/Wisconsin-Milwaukee over 134
3* JMU/Drexel under 127'

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 08:05 PM

updated card
3* N Iowa -10' - WINNER
3* Hoftra -6 - LOSER
3* JMU/Drexel under 127'
3* CSU/UWM under 134

lang mushed my Hofstra play. oh well, at least i have my hair. 1-1 -0.3u.

BiffTFinancial · 03-05-10, 08:55 PM

adding

3* Georgia Southern/UT-Chattanooga over 153

these teams are ridiculously high-scoring over the last month. ice has a great write-up on it and it's his big play, and you can't argue when you look at their scores. think both teams get to around 80.

BiffTFinancial · 03-06-10, 06:55 AM

2-3 -3.9u