Why is everyone on UAB-3 vs Memphis?

gonnakillit · 03-03-10, 04:51 PM

first of all....you can't look at all the past years ATS stats when playing this Memphis team. This Memphis team is no where near as good as years past. memphis has lost some bad games this year....UMASS stands out as one. And on the road they havnt played well at all. I wouldnt touch the game myself, but if I had to I'd take UAB -3 at home

Jrod124 · 03-03-10, 04:54 PM

I like UAB

THE PROFIT · 03-03-10, 04:55 PM

Some teams just play teams tough, no matter how good or bad they are at times.

BiffTFinancial · 03-03-10, 04:56 PM

i'll bite. when you look at the box score for their last meeting, a few things jump out:

1. UAB had 19 TOs (6 above their average, almost 50% more), and Memphis is great at turning TOs into points. UAB should be able to correct that issue at home tonight.
2. Memphis shot twice as many FTs, and converted 25-28. Memphis won't shoot 89% from the line often, and i sincerely doubt they double up UAB in FTA at UAB tonight.
3. Memphis shot over 49% and UAB normally yields 41%. that number too, i think, returns to normal tonight, or at least is back down in the 43-45% range.
4. This is an immense game for the UAB program and Mike Davis, so i think they'll be as motivated or more motivated than Memphis.
5. Memphis is not the same team as in the past, when the trends that you cite occurred. they've had trouble covering any spread this season.

THE PROFIT · 03-03-10, 04:56 PM

I haven't heard one person giving Memphis a chance, over 70% public on UAB. Memphis beat them by 10 a month ago, was UAB starting the cheerleaders?

tailin junkie · 03-03-10, 04:56 PM

Memphis beat them by 10 one month ago today[/quote]

I actually liked Memphis a lot until I saw that stat. No play for me.

gonnakillit · 03-03-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

Some teams just play teams tough, no matter how good or bad they are at times.

Yeah that's valid, but considering how dominant memphis was in that conference for the past 3-5 years I dont think you can say that's the case with these teams.

UAB is much better than years past and Memphis is much worse

THE PROFIT · 03-03-10, 04:57 PM

Okay, just getting thoughts, I didn't see the first game.

Jrod124 · 03-03-10, 05:01 PM

yeah I dont think I will play it

Dukebluejms · 03-03-10, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

i'll bite. when you look at the box score for their last meeting, a few things jump out: 1. UAB had 19 TOs (6 above their average, almost 50% more), and Memphis is great at turning TOs into points. UAB should be able to correct that issue at home tonight. 2. Memphis shot twice as many FTs, and converted 25-28. Memphis won't shoot 89% from the line often, and i sincerely doubt they double up UAB in FTA at UAB tonight. 3. Memphis shot over 49% and UAB normally yields 41%. that number too, i think, returns to normal tonight, or at least is back down in the 43-45% range. 4. This is an immense game for the UAB program and Mike Davis, so i think they'll be as motivated or more motivated than Memphis. 5. Memphis is not the same team as in the past, when the trends that you cite occurred. they've had trouble covering any spread this season.

Was liking Memphis as an early lean, but seeing this just pushed me off it. You make some very good points. BOL

Glitch · 03-03-10, 05:11 PM

past stats on memphis are not a reason to do think anything about anything. you know or should know the caliber players they've lost and their decent from greatness. they're still an alright squad tho and i expect this to be a close game. UABs a very good team.

the 10 point win a month ago is a red flag though for sure. slight lean uab ML. very slight

DennisT · 03-03-10, 05:40 PM

Good info all. Will take UAB but laying omly -1 1/2.. BOL all.

Jrod124 · 03-03-10, 05:43 PM

grab the moneyline too, its pretty short

HoulihansTX · 03-03-10, 05:46 PM

....

DennisT · 03-03-10, 06:00 PM

Good Idea. Did so. Thanks!

capri5421 · 03-03-10, 06:26 PM

Profit, I toally respect your work daily, but I'm going against you with UAB. Huge game for Blazers and Mike Davis.
Those stats you got there mean nothing, new era. Totally different Memphis team and there not that good. Good luck to yea.

BiffTFinancial · 03-04-10, 07:54 AM

hey, Profit - you were right, i was wrong. good call on Memphis. UAB couldn't hit anything (32% from field, 3-24 on 3s), in large part because Memphis played good defense, and Mike Davis showed that he's still not ready for the big game.

capri5421 · 03-04-10, 08:10 AM

Great call, I was wrong. UAB couldn't step up to the plate.