BJ's March Madness NCAA Thread

GiveMeaBJ · 03-01-10, 09:35 PM

Horizon League Conference Tournament
Defending Champion: Cleveland State
Location:
-Higher Seed in opening round
-@ Butler Quarters and Semis
-Higher Seed in championship

My Bracket
Opening Round
#9 Illinois-Chicago @ #4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee= Wisconsin-Milwaukee
#8 Loyola-Chicago @ #5 Cleveland State= Cleveland State
#10 Youngstown State @ #3 Wisconsin-Green Bay= Wisconsin-Green Bay
#7 Detroit @ #6 Valporaiso= Detroit

Quarterfinals
#4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs #5 Cleveland State= Wisconsin-Milwaukee
#3 Wisconsin-Green Bay vs #7 Detroit= Wisconsin-Green Bay

Semi Finals
#4 Wisconsin Milwaukee @ #1 Butler= Bulter
#3 Wisconsin Green Bay vs #2 Wright State= Wright State

Horizon Championship Game
#2 Wright State @ #1 Butler= Butler

GiveMeaBJ · 03-01-10, 09:47 PM

March 2nd Horizon Tournament Bets
Illinois-Chicago +12 (2x)
Yea, UIC is terrible on the road (1-14) and has just 8 wins on the year but the bottom line is they play UWM tough. In the last 8 meetings the most UIC has lost by was 5 points, that includes two games this year settled by just 9 points combined. UIC should have just enough fire power to make this one a game against an average defense. *** 68-63

Detroit +2 (1x)
These two split the season series and even though Valpo is at home I like Detroit to pull the upset here. Detroit is playing well right now and have won 3 in a row coming in. Two of them came on the road against Cleveland St and Youngstown St. I like Detroits defense and have watched them play two or three times this year. Detroit I think is a slightly better team here and get the only upset I can see in this tournament. Detroit 71-67

GiveMeaBJ · 03-01-10, 11:05 PM

March 2nd Regular Season Bets

Nova/Cincy u150 (4x)
Really like this one Cincy isn't a high scoring team and Nova has to shift the focus towards defense with the tournament coming up and after giving up nearly 100 points to Syracuse. Cincy has played over 150 in one of their lined games that didn't go to overtime and that was against Providence. They know Villanova is the better team so at home the focus should be on defense and slowing the pace. I think this one ends up in the high 60's/low 70's.

Florida -2.5 (3x)
I really like this Florida team and they protect their home floor very well. A lot of people are beggining to buy into Vanderbilt but away from their floor I think this is a very average team. They have played well lately but that ends tomorrow. Vandy hasn't won @ Florida in a long time. The difference in this game will be the stellar Florida defense which is giving up just 60 points per game at home. Florida 74-65

South Florida -2.5 (2x)
USF has been one of my go to teams all year and have given me some big wins. I am expecting nothing different tomorrow. Depaul is the worst Big East team we have seen in a real long time and this line is too low to pass up. South Florida finally has Gilchrist back which now gives them another scorer to match up with Dominique Jones who is simply amazing. USF is 9-5 ATS on the road and Depaul really has nothing to play for. They already locked up the #16 seed in the Big East tournament and are baisically just waiting for the season to end. USF 69-61

mkasad23 · 03-01-10, 11:49 PM

love the gators have no clue why the bulls are only getting 2 and a half against a shitty depaul team good luck

GiveMeaBJ · 03-02-10, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by mkasad23

love the gators have no clue why the bulls are only getting 2 and a half against a shitty depaul team good luck

Thanks pal. Good luck to you on those two.

Anyway, thinking of playing on St. Johns tonight. I know it is senior night and all but I think this may be a good spot for a letdown after the biggest Cuse regular season win in years.

2daBank · 03-02-10, 12:53 PM

good stuff my friend....gl tonight

GiveMeaBJ · 03-02-10, 01:04 PM

You too Bank.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-02-10, 03:08 PM

MVC is starting up the 4th.

MVC League Conference Tournament
Defending Champion: Northern Iowa
Location: St. Lous, Missouri (Nuetral)

Odds To Win
Northern Iowa +100
Wichita State +285
Illinois State +350
Creighton +500
Missouri State +650
Bradley +800
Indiana State +1200
Field +1500

My Bracket
Opening Round
#8 Drake vs #9 Southern Illinois=Drake
#7 Missouri State vs #10 Evansville=Missouri State

Quarterfinals
#1 Northern Iowa vs #8 Drake=Northern Iowa
#4 Creighton vs #5 Bradley= Creighton
#3 Illinois State vs #6 Indiana State= Illinois State
#2 Wichita State vs #7 Missouri State= Wichita State

Semi Finals
#1 Northern Iowa vs #4 Creighton= Northern Iowa
#2 Wichita State vs #3 Illinois State= Illinois State

MVC Conference Championship
#1 Northern Iowa vs #3 Illinois State= Northern Iowa

Future Bets

Northern Iowa to win MVC Tourn +100 (3x)
This number has a ton of value to it. Northern Iowa will not lose to whoever comes out of the Drake/So. Illinois bracket. Then they have to beat Creighton which I think they should do fairly easily. Then they are in the Championship. Then in the Championship they will definitley be favored barring any crazy injuries taking place and when they are I can take the other team ML and lock up a win on that game. It may be a small win, but you have to take sure profit when you get it.

THEGREAT30 · 03-02-10, 03:15 PM

Good info, good day

2daBank · 03-02-10, 03:17 PM

love the MVC....think Ill st has decent value as badly as wichita st has played as of late good chance Ill st tight where you got them may even win but can always hedge

GiveMeaBJ · 03-02-10, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

love the MVC....think Ill st has decent value as badly as wichita st has played as of late good chance Ill st tight where you got them may even win but can always hedge

This is something I am still thinking about. The first bracket I did I put Ill St winning. Later changed it. I think they will be a very tough out for whoever plays them. Still considering taking the Ill St +350 maybe a little smaller. Atleast I have a few days to decide.

Cougar Bait · 03-02-10, 05:42 PM

Only play I really like is Florida. I don't really do totals too much though, but will say I think SFLA is the better team. Gotta be worried a little about DePaul's recent ATS record though. GL tonight BJ!

GiveMeaBJ · 03-02-10, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Only play I really like is Florida. I don't really do totals too much though, but will say I think SFLA is the better team. Gotta be worried a little about DePaul's recent ATS record though. GL tonight BJ!

True. DP's ATS record though involves a lot of larger numbers that they can just hang around in. With S Fla desperate for wins and a number so low I think if Rutgers can cover 6 against DP, then Sfla can cover 3.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

March 2nd Horizon Tournament Bets
Illinois-Chicago +12 (2x)
Yea, UIC is terrible on the road (1-14) and has just 8 wins on the year but the bottom line is they play UWM tough. In the last 8 meetings the most UIC has lost by was 5 points, that includes two games this year settled by just 9 points combined. UIC should have just enough fire power to make this one a game against an average defense. *** 68-63

Detroit +2 (1x)
These two split the season series and even though Valpo is at home I like Detroit to pull the upset here. Detroit is playing well right now and have won 3 in a row coming in. Two of them came on the road against Cleveland St and Youngstown St. I like Detroits defense and have watched them play two or three times this year. Detroit I think is a slightly better team here and get the only upset I can see in this tournament. Detroit 71-67

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

March 2nd Regular Season Bets

Nova/Cincy u150 (4x)
Really like this one Cincy isn't a high scoring team and Nova has to shift the focus towards defense with the tournament coming up and after giving up nearly 100 points to Syracuse. Cincy has played over 150 in one of their lined games that didn't go to overtime and that was against Providence. They know Villanova is the better team so at home the focus should be on defense and slowing the pace. I think this one ends up in the high 60's/low 70's.

Florida -2.5 (3x)
I really like this Florida team and they protect their home floor very well. A lot of people are beggining to buy into Vanderbilt but away from their floor I think this is a very average team. They have played well lately but that ends tomorrow. Vandy hasn't won @ Florida in a long time. The difference in this game will be the stellar Florida defense which is giving up just 60 points per game at home. Florida 74-65

South Florida -2.5 (2x)
USF has been one of my go to teams all year and have given me some big wins. I am expecting nothing different tomorrow. Depaul is the worst Big East team we have seen in a real long time and this line is too low to pass up. South Florida finally has Gilchrist back which now gives them another scorer to match up with Dominique Jones who is simply amazing. USF is 9-5 ATS on the road and Depaul really has nothing to play for. They already locked up the #16 seed in the Big East tournament and are baisically just waiting for the season to end. USF 69-61

Conference Tournaments: 2-0 (+3 Units)
Regular Season: 1-1-1 (-1.3 Units)
Overall: 3-1 (+1.7 Units)

I will take it but that Nova under for 4x really should have hit. Would have made me +5.7 units, big swing but atleast I didn't get the loss.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 04:07 AM

CAA Conference Tournament
Defending Champion: VCU
Location: Richmond, Virginia (Nuetral)

Odds To Win
Old Dominion +175
VCU +250
Northeastern +250
William and Mary +500
George Mason +500
Drexel +1000
Hofstra +1200
Field +1200

My Bracket
Opening Round
#8 Towson vs #9 UNC Wilmington= Towson
#5 VCU vs #12 Delaware= VCU
#7 Hofstra vs #10 Georgia State= Hofstra
#6 Drexel vs #11 James Madison= Drexel

Quarterfinals
#1 Old Dominion vs #8 Towson= Old Dominion
#4 George Mason vs #5 VCU= VCU
#2 Northeastern vs #7 Hofstra= Northeastern
#3 William & Mary vs #6 Drexel= William & Mary

Semi Finals
#1 Old Dominion vs #5 VCU= VCU
#2 Northeastern vs #3 William & Mary=Northeastern

CAA Conference Championship
#2 Northeastern vs #5 VCU= Northeastern

Future Bets
VCU +400 to win (1x)
Really like the bracket they drew here. A winning team with a winning mentality. They have been to the Big Dance the past few years and although Eric Maynor is gone I think those were still the expectations coming in. Now they have to win this tournament, I don't think they do it but I think they will give any team they play a run for their money. I like this price here. They draw a good match up in the first game and a soft George Mason team away from home in the second round. The big test will be ODU. I personally think they can beat ODU, they split the season series with them but just looked like the better team in those games. I can't pass this price.

Northeastern to win +250 (1x)
Aside from ODU this NE team looks like the only team with a shot at an at large (although a very outside shot) thanks to their strength of schedule. They most likely have to win this to get in it. I really think the only two teams coming out of the top half of the bracket are ODU or VCU and they need this game much more then ODU. Of course if they play VCU I will be sitting back waiting to see how much I make on that game.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 04:28 AM

March 3 Regular Season Bets

Indiana +18.5 (1x)
Indiana is really bad and I have gotten burnt on them a few times this year laying big numbers but I just can't see how this number is so high against a team without it's best player. They weren't too impressive without Hummel in the MSU game and I just think without him they shift their focus more towards the defensive end of the floor. It's just hard to see Purdue scoring enough to cover such a huge number. Purdue 69-58

South Carolina -3 (3x)
This number is way too low. Yea they have the same record but in my mind South Carolina is the much better team. They protect the home floor very well while Alabama struggles on the road. Both teams are struggling right now but with Devan Downey being the best player on the floor and South Carolina at home I have to back the cocks here. Bama has some big problems finding the bucket when they play on the road but USC can score at will. One run can put Bama too far behind. Like this one quite a bit. South Carolina 75-65

Notre Dame Pk (2x)
Where did ND come from? Even without Gody they are hanging tough. They seem like a team that is ready to make a strong push in the tournament and with an extremley good home court I think they get it done. The young UConn team has been very inconsistent without the fans behind them and pretty much booked themselves an NIT birth when they blew the lead to Louisville. I like Notre Dame and there dangerous three point shooting to get it done. ND 77-70

Maryland +1 (2x)
This is more of a spot play then anything for me. Maryland has been making a really strong push lately and a win against Duke really will do wonders for this team. Everyone got baited into UVA +10 at home against Duke and now people beleive Duke can do it on the road. Well, it is one thing to play UVA on the road without their best player and it is another thing to play in this Rivalry on the road against a hot MD team. Duke is shooting just 41% on the road for the year and that won't get it done against Vasquez and company. MD 74-68

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 09:50 AM

WCC Conference Tournament
Defending Champion: Gonzaga
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada (Nuetral)

Odds To Win
Gonzaga -175
St. Marys +200
San Francisco +500
Portland +600
Loyola Marymount +800
Field +2000

My Bracket
Opening Round
#5 Loyola Marymount vs #8 Pepperdine= Loyola Marymount
#6 San Diego vs #7 Santa Clara= Santa Clara

Quarterfinals
#4 San Francisco vs #5 Loyola Marymount= San Francisco
#3 Portland vs #7 Santa Clara= Portland

Semi Finals
#1 Gonzaga vs #4 San Francisco=Gonzaga
#2 Saint Marys vs #3 Portland=Portland

WCC Conference Championship
#1 Gonzaga vs #3 Portland= Gonzaga

Future Bets

Portland to win +600 (1x)
I know everyone is expecting a St. Mays vs Gonzaga match up but Portland is very good. They only lost by 5 in SM, and beat them when they played them in Portland. Portland will get to that game in SM and when they do it could even be profitable to maybe hedge there. I don't think that line can be too high or I will be pounding the shit out of Portland. They have all the tools to beat SM and SM is a little overrated this year. It's worth it at +600.

Gonzaga to win -175 (2x)
This one is pretty easy. I think they should be bigger favorites then that. Baisically it comes down to can they beat Portland or SM? Yes, of course they can. This Gonzaga team is Final Four material. They will be in the final and if it is against Portland then I am looking at a real nice spot.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 11:29 AM

MAAC Conference Tournament
Defending Champion: Siena
Location: Siena

Odds To Win
Not Available

My Bracket
Opening Round
#8 Loyola MD vs #9 Manhattan= Loyola MD
#7 Canisus vs #10 Marist= Canisus

Quarterfinals
#1 Siena vs #8 Loyola MD= Siena
#4 St. Peters vs #5 Rider= Rider
#2 Fairfield vs #7 Canisus= Fairfield
#3 Iona vs #6 Niagara= Iona

Semi Finals
#1 Siena vs #5 Rider= Siena
2 Fairfield vs #3 Iona= Fairfield

MAAC Conference Championship
#1 Siena vs #2 Fairfield= Siena

Future Bets

Siena to win -250 (1x)
At home, they damaged at large resume with a few losses. Think they need to win this to be safe, they are far and away the best in the MAAC. Just don't see them losing to anyone in this field.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 12:00 PM

Just to get everything in one post for me.

March 3 Reg Season Plays
Indiana +18.5 (1x)
South Carolina -3 (3x)
Notre Dame Pk (2x)
Maryland +1 (2x)

Conference Tourney Futures
Northern Iowa to win +100 (3x)
Portland to win +600 (1x)
Gonzaga to win -175 (2x)
VCU +400 to win (1x)
Northeastern to win +250 (1x)

Conference Tournaments: 2-0 (+3 Units)
Regular Season: 1-1-1 (-1.3 Units)
Overall: 3-1 (+1.7 Units)

Bracket Picks: 4-0

GiveMeaBJ · 03-03-10, 11:54 PM

Today: 3-1 (+1.7 Units)
Conference Tournaments Overall: 2-0 (+3 Units)
Regular Season Overall: 4-2 (+0.4 Units)
Overall: 6-2 (+3.4 Units)

Bracket Picks: 4-0

Going to make a few bets right now, I am not home so I don't know how well researched they are going to be. I have a lot on my plate right now but SBR is a nice release from the stress.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-04-10, 12:08 AM

March 4 Regular Season Bets

Rutgers +4.5 (1x)
Rare primetime showing for Rutgers at the RAC. Very tough enviornment there. Seton Hall still isn't impressive and I like Rutgers inside game.

March 4 Conference Tourney Bet

Drake +3.5 (1x)
Don't get this one. I don't see how you think So Ill is this much better then Drake. I have Drake as the favorite.

Thats it for tomorrow. Either it isn't a real good card or I am just not thinking clearly right now.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-04-10, 11:58 PM

Today: 1-1 (-0.1 Units)
Conference Tournaments Overall: 3-0 (+4 Units)
Regular Season Overall: 4-3 (-0.7 Units)
Overall: 7-3 (+3.3 Units)

Bracket Picks: 6-0 (100%)
Locking in a few bets now, tired as hell just want to go to sleep. Will post them after I bet them.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 12:26 AM

Conference Tourney Futures
Northern Iowa to win MVC Tourn +100 (3x)
Portland to win WCC Tourn +600 (1x)
Gonzaga to win WCC Tourn -175 (2x)
VCU +400 to win CAA Tourn (1x)
Northeastern to win CAA Tourn +250 (1x)
Siena to win MAAC Tourn -250 (1x)

March 5 Conference Tourn Plays
Wisconsin Green-Bay +1.5 (2x)
Creighton -3.5 (3x)
Conference Tourns Overall: 3-0 (+4 Units)

March 5 Regular Season Play
St. Johns -3 (1x)
Regular Season Overall: 4-3 (-0.7 Units)

Combined: 7-3 (+3.3 Units)
Bracket Picks: 6-0 (100%)

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 01:55 AM

I saw the Big East bracket on TV earlier tonight. Anyone know where I can get a copy of it. Want to start working on that.

iceminers26 · 03-05-10, 02:06 AM

I can't believe this is the first time stopping by this thread, great thread with all the conference tourney match-ups.

Got me wanting to throw down on a few conference tourney futures as well, good luck with the plays. I'll stop by more often now that I find this thread.

iceminers26 · 03-05-10, 02:08 AM

I like the Portland future as well, ton of value for an experienced bunch

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 02:08 AM

Originally posted by iceminers26

I can't believe this is the first time stopping by this thread, great thread with all the conference tourney match-ups.

Got me wanting to throw down on a few conference tourney futures as well, good luck with the plays. I'll stop by more often now that I find this thread.

The door is always open ice. Hoping that this will end in the green come April and to get some insight from the forum.

iceminers26 · 03-05-10, 02:10 AM

Speaking of Portland, they were the talk of the town at the beginning of the season with their big wins but have not heard much of them of late, I could see them making the tourney their statement week and getting into the tourney. Like I said, I like that play and think it has a ton of value at +600, gonna probably play it as well.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by iceminers26

I like the Portland future as well, ton of value for an experienced bunch

Yes that and VCU are my favorites. Great numbers I think.

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 02:14 AM

Originally posted by iceminers26

Speaking of Portland, they were the talk of the town at the beginning of the season with their big wins but have not heard much of them of late, I could see them making the tourney their statement week and getting into the tourney. Like I said, I like that play and think it has a ton of value at +600, gonna probably play it as well.

Yes they had several huge wins I remember. They were making a lot of people a lot of money. I remember they beat Oregon, UCLA, and Minnesota in a span of 6 days and we were all in shock. In hindsight those wins weren't as impressive as they seemed but still big wins for a WCC team.

The great thing about the +600 is all they have to do is make the final and you can probably get a nice hedge for profit.

ericthegangster · 03-05-10, 04:27 AM

uwm weeeee

GiveMeaBJ · 03-05-10, 11:31 AM

Adding Wichita State

March 5 Conference Tourn Plays
Wisconsin Green-Bay +1.5 (2x)
Wichita State -2.5 (2x)
Wichita State -2 (3x)
Creighton -3.5 (3x)
Conference Tourns Overall: 3-0 (+4 Units)

March 5 Regular Season Play
St. Johns -3 (1x)
Regular Season Overall: 4-3 (-0.7 Units)

Combined: 7-3 (+3.3 Units)
Bracket Picks: 6-0 (100%)

Conference Tourney Futures
Northern Iowa to win MVC Tourn +100 (3x)
Portland to win WCC Tourn +600 (1x)
Gonzaga to win WCC Tourn -175 (2x)
VCU +400 to win CAA Tourn (1x)
Northeastern to win CAA Tourn +250 (1x)
Siena to win MAAC Tourn -250 (1x)

Kushtastic · 03-05-10, 03:20 PM

you pissed you laid off of Towson yet???

whatsgood5 · 03-05-10, 03:38 PM

Good luck BJ, I love the Northern Iowa and Gonzaga Conference Tourney picks. Also like Creighton today.