Old Dominion / GA st OVER 116.5 WRITE UP

[jorge1]

Old dominion is averaging 65.75 pts in february games excluding the highest and lowest score. THEY HAVE ALLOWED 60.25 pts in february, again excluding the highest and lowest scores to normalize the average. looking at similar opponents as of late, james madison and townson st come to mind. James madison score was 64-44. James madison, however scored only 8% of their 3-pters!!!! so its kinda no wonder that game was so low scoring. they also shot 32.7 from the field, and 55 FT. it was james madison's sorriest performance since facing murray st november 20th. When they faced TOWNSON ST on 2/16, a team whos record is worse than Georgia st, old dominion allowed them to score 67 pts, and scored 78 pts on them. In conclusion, this line is TOO LOW, about 8 to 10 pts too low.

Georgia St. is averaging 63.25 pts on offense the last 6 in february excluding the highest and lowest. they are allowing 62.5 pts in the last six also, however, since Old Dominion is the strongest opponent they are facing so far i expect them to allow them to score more than average. I dont see old Dominion scoring less than 70 -72 pts in this match up, and Georgia st will certainly stay in the 60's, giving us a comfortable 10 to 12 pt cover...

so the question is, is GA st. home D, strong enough to hold old dominion under 65 pts? I dont think so. Old D hits at LEAST 68 pts comfortably, leaving us waiting for GA st. to comfortably hit 49 pts to cover the 117. I actually cap the game to be 74-62. A correlated parlay might be a good idea also...COMMENTS and discussion welcome and encouraged

[JerseyLove]

Good points. Im with you on this one

[DolphinSpurs]

I was shocked how low this was after seeing the avg ppg for each time on the road and at home respectively. I took the over too and I hope someone in Vegas doesnt know something we don't.

[jorge1]

honestly, the only time this has gone under this total for either team has been flukes...as i mentioned, but as of late both teams can score, GA st will be in the range of 58 - 65, and OLD DOMINION will be from 68 - 75 or so...either way, its a grreat OVER. lets hit it! last night was dissapointing having missed my UCONN over by a POINT, but this should be an easy over. Lets get em boys

[ScreaminPain]

so the question is, is GA st. home D, strong enough to hold old dominion under 65 pts? I dont think so. Old D hits at LEAST 68 pts comfortably, leaving us waiting for GA st. to comfortably hit 49 pts to cover the 117. I actually cap the game to be 74-62. A correlated parlay might be a good idea also...COMMENTS and discussion welcome and encouraged

I like your analysis, Jorge. I usually don't have "recent" stats broken out of my model, but it seems a more logical approach this time of year.

I hope this doesn't cloud the issue, but suffice it to say I concur. A particular portion of my model uses relative comparisons. ODU has scored a 72 against teams that usually allow 66 (+6). Conversly, ODU has allowed only a 60 to teams that usually get 64 (+4).

Geo. St. has only scored a 64 against teams that allow 67 (-3). Geo. St. also has allowed 69 to teams that usually only get 68 (-1).

I know this doesn't make much sense to you, but if you viewed these numbers as points it might be clearer. You could make a case for ODU as they have a total of 10 to Geo. St's -4. This measurment closely relates to the probable score.

Since the line is 9.5, this is a lean, but I need a full 5 pt difference to take the rubber band off my wad.

I like your thinking and am adding this simply for thought.

Good Luck on your action....

[Spaniard22]

I would love to take this over, OD has a great D though. If GT struggles, this one could go south. I am leaning on GT+9.5... still not sold yet. GL Boyz!!

Old Dominion's Away Scoring vs Georgia State's Home Defense 63.1
Georgia State's Home Scoring vs Old Dominion's Road Defense 66.0
*Old Dominion has allowed the third fewest points in the league at 56.3 per game.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 6 games when playing Georgia State

[allday1113]

I would lean towards the over as well...maybe that's a bad thing though? lol

In all honesty, this is the kind of game that you shouldn't bet the over because both teams are defensive minded and play at slow paces. Both defenses want to make you put it on the floor which is why I would lean over because each team relies on scoring in the paint. Of course, don't forget the first time these teams played it totaled 96 points.

I have it as Old Dominion 67 Georgia St. 51. Good luck.

[jorge1]

Thanks guys, great insight. i pulled the trigger regardless. Line movement jumped all the way to 118.5 in some spots. I dont see OLD D scoring less than 70. I have it at 74 - 62. GOOD LUCK TO ALL...hope you caught it early if u r jumping on board. I got it at 116

[nobs]

goodluck

[jorge1]

FINAL CARD:

OLD DOMINION / GEORGIA st. OVER 116.5 11U to win 10U
Rutgers / Seton U150 (as per ICEMINER) 11U to win 10U
Louisville -4 (as per ICEMINER & LT) 5.5U to win 5U
Michigan -2.5 (as per ICEMINER) 2.2U to win 2U

Parlay of the day: HIT yesterday!
Old D -9.5 / OVER 118.5 6U to win 15.5U
GA st +9.5 / OVER 118.5 (hedging) 4U to win 10.5U

[DolphinSpurs]

[Spaniard22]

Thanks guys, great insight. i pulled the trigger regardless. Line movement jumped all the way to 118.5 in some spots. I dont see OLD D scoring less than 70. I have it at 74 - 62. GOOD LUCK TO ALL...hope you caught it early if u r jumping on board. I got it at 116

Good Call Brutha, I didnt pull the trigger on this. I locked up Rutgers and Under

[jorge1]

Thanks guys, great insight. i pulled the trigger regardless. Line movement jumped all the way to 118.5 in some spots. I dont see OLD D scoring less than 70. I have it at 74 - 62. GOOD LUCK TO ALL...hope you caught it early if u r jumping on board. I got it at 116

I HAD it at 74-62, final score, 75 -62!!!!!! thank you!

FINAL CARD:

OLD DOMINION / GEORGIA st. OVER 116.5 11U to win 10U
Rutgers / Seton U150 (as per ICEMINER) 11U to win 10U thanks ICE
Louisville -4 (as per ICEMINER & LT) 5.5U to win 5U duh
Michigan -2.5 (as per ICEMINER) 2.2U to win 2U duh

Parlay of the day: HIT yesterday!
Old D -9.5 / OVER 118.5 6U to win 15.5U
GA st +9.5 / OVER 118.5 (hedging) 4U to win 10.5U

Came out 2-2 (+12.3 UNITAS!!!!) plus the parlay for 11.5 UNITS! that is the second 2 team parlay i hit two days in a row!

Lets keep the run going! Oh and also hit a 5 team teaser for 22 units i think!

[Shortstop]

Great hit! You nailed this game perfectly! Congrats!