Lots of posts about Elon at home, so I want to visit the other side. Appalachian State has played some good ball in the Southern conference this year. They have won 5 of there last 6. They lost 2 games ago to Charleston on the road who leads the division.
Elon has played some close games and is on a 2 game winning streak. They have lost closely to some good teams in there conference (Charleston by 3). But, they have also been blown out by some teams as well (App State and Wofford).
On paper, a lot of people might consider the home team and the points. Here is why I say no. App. State can still win the North. They lead Western Carolina by a game and a half. If they lose here and W. Carolina wins there next game, we essentially have a tie. The race in the north is by no means over. They want seeding for there conference tournament and a chance to go to the big dance. Elon is pretty much done for the year.
Additionally, App State beat Elon 89-65 at home earlier in the year. I understand this was a month ago at App State, but that is solid win. I see the spread at 4.5 points and I am taking App. State and am thinking an 8 point win in a close game up until the last 5-7 minutes. For those that think a team becomes "due" for a lose (still not sure if I agree or disagree with this theory), App State lost 2 games ago to Charleston, so that is out of the way.
Additional Trend Stats (for those that like this)
Key stats I take away are how good App State has played against the spread lately and in the division. Elon has faired well, but in the underdog category, they have not faired well.
Appalachian St.
Elon University
Elon has played some close games and is on a 2 game winning streak. They have lost closely to some good teams in there conference (Charleston by 3). But, they have also been blown out by some teams as well (App State and Wofford).
On paper, a lot of people might consider the home team and the points. Here is why I say no. App. State can still win the North. They lead Western Carolina by a game and a half. If they lose here and W. Carolina wins there next game, we essentially have a tie. The race in the north is by no means over. They want seeding for there conference tournament and a chance to go to the big dance. Elon is pretty much done for the year.
Additionally, App State beat Elon 89-65 at home earlier in the year. I understand this was a month ago at App State, but that is solid win. I see the spread at 4.5 points and I am taking App. State and am thinking an 8 point win in a close game up until the last 5-7 minutes. For those that think a team becomes "due" for a lose (still not sure if I agree or disagree with this theory), App State lost 2 games ago to Charleston, so that is out of the way.
Additional Trend Stats (for those that like this)
Key stats I take away are how good App State has played against the spread lately and in the division. Elon has faired well, but in the underdog category, they have not faired well.
Appalachian St.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
- Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southern.
- Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Elon University
- Phoenix are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Phoenix are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Phoenix are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Phoenix are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Southern.
- Phoenix are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- Phoenix are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Phoenix are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
......gl
