Big Ten Conference Play 02-20-10 Need a little input on this Saturday Thread

[juanitodelfuego]

First up heading into W. Lafayette where the Boilermakers will be hosting my least favorite team in the B10, Illinois. PU is 3-1 ATS 4-0 SU in their last 4 games. IL is is also 3-1 ATS, but they are 3-1 SU. Both teams won on the road and IL is coming off a beating at OSU. Over the last 4 games, both teams combine for a 5-3 O/U. This is a tough one at 12.5 and 136. PU is scoring less at home (3.5) in B10 play, but that is probably becasue their opponents have been scoring 12.5 less on average in W.Lafayette giving them a 9pt home court advantage.

I am inclined to take PU, buy the hook and run it over 136.

[juanitodelfuego]

Game two in B10 play is Penn State heading to Ann Arbor to take on UM. UM is 4-2 ATS at home, going over twice in the six games and winning SU 3x over IU, OS and UI. Home losses for UM are to UW (UM scored 44) NW and MSU. UM is scoring 3.5 less at home than on the road, but they too have a home court defensive advatage of 8, leaving a home court 4.5 advantage.

PS, by the numbers, is 5-2 ATS on the road, scoring 6 pts better on the road and only giving up 2.4 more on the road than at home. PS has gone over 5 out of 7 times on the road.

Giving PS 10.5 and a posted total of 124 leaves me thinking, both teams have been trending above their averages in scoring and allowance, so I am going with momentum here and taking PS and the over.