ONE PLAy I LOVE Tonight -- WISCONSIN 1st HALf UNDER 59 1/2

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    ONE PLAy I LOVE Tonight -- WISCONSIN 1st HALf UNDER 59 1/2
    I know I am going against the steam here as this number just got steamed up, but hell I loved it when it was 58 1/2 so why wouldnt I love it at 59 1/2. I simply think the steam is wrong here. Going to go with just the first half in this game, as anything can happen with the fouling or overtime potential late.

    I like it under the 127, but the fact is I like the first half under 59 1/2 better than the whole game under the 127. With fouling, we could see 20 points scored in the last minute of this game. Also, this game does carry the Overtime potential so I will stick with the first half.

    Got to love this first half under the 59 1/2 here because these are two teams that play slow pace offense and keep the score low. Neither of these teams give up much and neither score a lot. Wisconsin comes into this game giving up only 57 points per game, even fewer at home. Michigan State comes in giving up only 63 points per game.

    Wisconsin this year has held Duke and Maryland in the 60's. That is two ACC teams both averaging over 80 points a game this year that Wisconsin held under 70 which was one of the lowest scores for both teams all year long. They held Marquette to 63, Penn State to 46, Northwestern to 50, and Michigan to 48.

    The Badgers have held 10 of their opponents this year to 50 points or less. Michigan State has similarly held good offenses to low scores. In the previous metting, these teams only combined for 101 points. In that game, the score at halftime was 22-20. I see no reason to expect a complete turnaround and an extra 18 points to be scored in the first half tonight.

    I think this is a great spot, because this is more than just two good defenses. This is two offenses who dont even try to score a lot. They both keep it slow, work for the good shot, and figure if they score 55-60 points that probably enough. These teams dont need to score in the range of 75-80 points to win as some teams do.

    Like I said, both these teams have been playing low scoring games all year long. That is often playing against higher paced opponents, but tonight we have a matchup of two teams that both play it slow and run the shot clock down. These are both offenses that will work for the good shot rather than just taking the first shot they can get. We will see the shot clock getting down to 10 and under many times in this game.

    There just wont be a lot of shot attempts in the first half and that will make it very unlikely that this game even gets close to 60. I fully expect to see a halftime score somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-24.


    Just for the record, I havent been too hot lately. 1-2 YTD, but I really love this 1st half under 59 1/2.

    Good Luck on all plays.
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